The Trump ‘surprise’

Every time a U.S. president seeks reelection and his chances don’t seem good the world seems to tremble in fear that he will invent a war that unifies the country around him. It is commonly known as an ‘October surprise’ and it seems that in the case of Donald Trump the scene of this convenient war will be within the U.S. itself.

Most experts have identified two variables that will decide the outcome of the November election in the United States: one is the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic consequences; the other is the state of tranquility in the cities, currently affected by the protests against racial discrimination, police abuse against minorities, and the resulting street confrontations with white supremacist groups, who are supporters of the president.

The Trump policy has been to downplay the pandemic, despite the fact that nearly 200,000 have died because of the virus in the United States, and press forward insisting on opening the economy — even at the risk of increasing the number of people infected by Covid-19. The administration’s discourse is to consider the pandemic under control, although health experts say differently. There is also hope of a quick solution based on the discovery of a vaccine that, by the way, the administration assures us will be available before the election. Health authorities and the pharmaceutical industry question that wishful thinking. 

Trump’s rationale for the mismanagement of the disease has been typical of his behavior. He’s blamed it on China, the WHO or Democratic governors. The dead are best left unsaid and the 60 percent disapproval of his handling of the pandemic is the result of conspiracies led by his enemies. Those who believe him will do so anyway, and whatever happens, this trend will continue leading one to believe that he has reached his limit when it comes to damage control.

Another alternative in order to reduce the Democrat’s lead (according to all polls) is to try and exploit social tensions, considered the other fundamental variable, and to establish himself as the law and order president. According to ACLED, a non-governmental organization that monitors conflicts around the world, since May there have been 10,600 popular demonstrations in the United States, 73 percent associated with the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, although with a significant participation of other social groups, especially white youth. Ninety-five percent of these demonstrations were peaceful in nature, but still, 54 percent were repressed by the police. There also were 360 demonstrations against these protests, including about 100 by white supremacist groups, including armed militias and the KKK, which generated the highest levels of violence.

Using the excuse that they are anarchists, classified as domestic terrorists by Donald Trump himself, a narrative has been constructed that tends to create fear among the white population justifying police repression, which in some cases has been translated into the crude murders of African Americans. This is not new. It is a resource that has often been exploited by conservative right wingers. The problem lies in how far they are willing to go when encouraging these actions, especially since, so far, the president’s strategy is not paying off like he thought it would.

Recent CNN / SSRS polls indicate Biden leads Trump by 6 percent of voters who consider him more capable of maintaining internal security in the country. That figure inches up to 7 percent when it comes to the handling of the criminal and justice system. It is, therefore, another variable that should not show significant change, if tensions remain at current levels.

The conclusion is that the electoral calculations should not be significantly modified in the eight weeks until the elections, especially since the latest polls indicate that around 95 percent of possible voters have already made their decision on who to vote for. However, Republicans are left with the option of reducing the number of potential voters at all costs, which would radically alter the equation of the elections. As physicists would say, it would no longer be an experiment under conditions of normal temperature and pressure.

It is a known fact that Republicans will usually try to decrease the participation of minorities during elections. All kinds of stunts are used to achieve this purpose, and these elections have not been an exemption. On the contrary, Democrats have already been complaining of voter suppression.  What is new, presently, are the two variables being used, both which help reduce electoral participation of the people. This favors Republicans.

The pandemic constitutes an impediment when it comes to attendance at the polls due to fear of contagion, particularly among Democrats, who are more likely to respect isolation measures. If Trump has not insisted on this, by emphasizing the danger, it is because it may also scare away some of his own followers, and because that logic would favor voting by mail, which he has obviously systematically opposed and tried to make difficult.

But perhaps these measures will not be enough. Therefore we cannot rule out the possibility that Republicans will incite even more domestic violence, adding a factor that can be decisive when going to the polls. The increase in armed gangs of white supremacists, aimed at preventing the vote in areas with high Democratic concentration of voters, would be terrifying. This is not a fantasy. We are seeing this possibility every day and the president’s attitude encourages this behavior. Rather, this could be the “surprise” Donald Trump has in store for October, and even on Election Day.

Such a scenario would forcefully alter the rules of the game of the American political system and would place us before a reality where the current electoral calculations would lose validity. It could also have incalculable consequences, since the idea of fraud for any of the groups could set the country on fire. As filmmaker Michael More has said, Donald Trump is the grenade the white supremacist right needed to launch against the system.

North American elections have never been characterized by very strict ethical norms, but they have almost always tried to safeguard the image of integrity and respect for the results that the credibility and stability of the system need. Trump has blown up these budgets, accentuating the signs of decay seen in other aspects of national life.

We are not only in the presence of a degree of social polarization that makes governance of the country difficult. There is also a lack of consensus within the ruling class, which makes it possible for Donald Trump to figuratively act as an albatross around the system’s neck. Perhaps I can better explain it with something Trump tried to say: “The United States is an example for the world.” We should take this into account in order to calculate what is to come.