The perfect storm

Many feel that protests that occurred in Cuba on July 11 constitute the announced death of the Revolution. Although truly shocking and damaging to the image of a country that prides itself on citizen tranquility, it is not rare for the revolutionary process to have been able to overcome major confrontations.

In the early years these confrontations were expressed in the armed struggle against terrorism, rebel gangs and invasions organized by the CIA. But even after overcoming this stage in the domestic scene — more or less violent social upheavals did not end — the common factor has been the participation and encouragement of the United States government and the external counterrevolution.

What occurs at the moment does not substantially change this pattern. It is difficult to qualify as ‘spontaneous’ demonstrations that occurred in unison throughout the country. They’ve been in the planning for months and have the financing, at least indirectly, of the hundreds of millions of dollars publicly allocated by the United States for the “promotion of democracy” in Cuba.

We are in the presence of a new U.S. aggression and this constitutes the central element of the analysis, although the majority of the protesters have not received instructions from the White House and their objectives do not even correspond to the pretensions of that country in Cuba. In reality, one of the great tragedies of this type of event is that many of its participants do not even act with full awareness of what they want, although generally they do know what they do not want, nor are they able to calculate the consequences of their actions. This is the difference between revolution and chaos.

It also would be simplistic to say that these types of conflicts only respond to a “malevolent imperialist plan,” since they are a reflection of the economic, social and political problems that the country traverses. Many times they are the result of the United States’ own aggressions, especially the blockade, but also as a consequence of errors and inadequacies in the construction of socialism in Cuba, and the inevitable political struggles that a process of this nature generates.

That said, it is worth analyzing the particularities of the current protests, an expression of the perfect storm that the country is experiencing. The most important is that the political subject has changed — both of society as a whole, and of the government that should govern its destinies — without the cohesive factor that the figure of Fidel Castro represented.

‘Continuity’ can be a valid slogan when referring to the objectives of the revolutionary process, but inoperative when it comes to conducting it. The country’s own leadership has insisted on the need for institutions and political cadres to change the “mentality” and ways of operating. That leadership has also tried it in many ways. But the main criticism of its management has been the inability to generate these changes at the speed and depth required, even to carry out many of the reforms that it has designed and that enjoy a positive national consensus.

Another peculiarity has been the level of violence applied by the forces of order in certain places — without justifying attacks against the police or the vandalism of the protesters. Although there have been moments of great confrontations, the government has always been careful to establish limits to the repressive actions of the police, knowing its political consequences.

Without reaching the scale that is unfortunately quite common in other countries, we have experienced scenes of violence and police abuse which do not correspond to the traditions and practices of the Revolution. It is true that the demonstrations were not always peaceful and orderly. Just as videos demonstrate police excesses, there is plenty of evidence of the violence and vandalism in various demonstrations which justify the determined action of the police. The problem is that although repression in Cuba may be minimal compared to other countries, a single case is enough to transgress the ethics of the revolutionaries and damages the image of the country, with what this entails for the national security itself. It is also bad policy.

This violence also takes place at a time when the process of approval of a new Constitution is being consolidated, which had the support, granted by secret ballot, of more than 80 percent of the voters. Violating the postulates of this Constitution constitutes a crime for either party and there are no reasons to do so, since it affects the consensus that underpins the strategic project of the nation.

Another peculiarity is the difficulties of the revolutionary forces to confront the subversive actions channeled through social networks. This is a new scenario for Cuba, at a disadvantage in the face of enemies who have all the money and experience in the use of these instruments of social communication — whether it be to sell a pair of shoes, destabilize a country or elect a president. For sure, the profiles of the majority of Cubans already rest on servers ready to be classified and dozens of operators are in charge of manipulating them. Nobody summoned me to the July 11 demonstrations, but thousands of people, more willing than me, surely received the message.

However, beyond the problems of the use of new technologies, there is the problem of the content of the information that is distributed and the methods used to guarantee the effectiveness of the message and its credibility. The shortcomings of the press, with no solutions in sight, have been the object of constant criticism from the country’s leaders. A good part of the human capital of the intelligentsia is wasted in the media and the result of social research continues to have very limited diffusion, which affects the accuracy and depth of the analyses that are transmitted to the population. The debate from different positions, present in other settings, even in the queues outside grocery stores, is a rare animal in the Cuban press.

Many of the social problems that lack adequate attention, and which President Díaz Canel himself has pointed out among the causes of the events that occurred — namely poverty, marginalization, racism and other social differences — have been studied for years by Cuban academic centers. And the results that warn about these phenomena and their treatment have not always been duly taken into account.

Although there is a lack of research to confirm this data, Díaz Canel also defined the fundamental components that he considers were present in the demonstrations and identified three large groups: the annexationists, who act bent on the interests of the United States; people with criminal attitudes; as well as a large presence of young people. The former are easily identifiable by their political ties and attitudes, the latter by their conduct, but the latter respond to a much broader and more complex definition, related to much bigger problems in the life of the country.

Although the economic blockade has not been able to overthrow the regime, as its proponents have hoped for, it has been a determining obstacle to the economic advancement of the country, as well as serving as a constant political wear and tear, conditioned to create overwhelming deficiencies for the common citizen.

The Cuban miracle has been to survive under these conditions, but to resist eternally does not satisfy the life expectancy of ordinary people, especially young people. Such a level of dissatisfaction explains the volume of emigration that exists, as well as the expressions of dissatisfaction that are observed in various settings. The cause is economic, but its consequences are political and as such must be addressed.

The resurgence of the blockade, to the point of economic suffocation as a result of Donald Trump’s policies, has been compounded by the devastating humanitarian, social and economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is no coincidence that the demonstrations were called for at the worst moment of the pandemic, when the country faces record levels of infections and deaths, a situation that should improve in the coming months as a result of the application of Cuban vaccines.

Nor is it a coincidence that they occurred at a time when the Biden administration seemed ready to announce the much-studied policy toward Cuba. Since taking over as president, the Cuban-American extreme right has been articulating provocations and media campaigns to prevent the sanctions established by Donald Trump from being reversed. It seems that Biden is cornered by these pressures and that policy towards Cuba will not have significant changes in the coming months.

The only thing that depends on the Cubans is Cuba itself. May the crisis, the mother of great transformations, in a climate of dialogue and peace, allow us to evaluate everything that must be evaluated and change everything that must be changed. The future of a Revolution depends on it, a Revolution where many Cubans have poured their life, heart and soul into.