Trump or Biden: What can Cubans expect

The Trump administration just recently announced new measures against Cuba. They consist of more restrictions for U.S. visitors to the Island, as well as new prohibitions for participation in scientific, cultural and sporting events that take place in the country. It is more of the same. It was done to satisfy the Cuban-American extreme right as Election Day nears. In actuality they have little practical value, since, due to the pandemic and the preceding policy, the exchange between the two countries is practically non-existent. However, it illustrates the most likely scenario of bilateral relations if Trump wins in November.

Some believe that without the pressure of another election — which cannot be taken for granted since Trump has expressed interest in extending his presidency beyond the two terms — Cuba policy could radically turn and move in the direction that many expected before the president’s alliance with the Cuban-American extreme right. However, although it is true that anything can be expected of Donald Trump, such an eventuality is unlikely since a Trump win would mean a triumph for the conservative movement in the United States, and it would be very unlikely that he ignore these commitments.

Then one can expect that policy towards Cuba would continue in the hands of the Cuban-American right, who has increased its influence within the Republican party during this administration. It is impossible to calculate how far the escalation of tensions could advance under the stimulus of these forces, but it is possible to affirm that it would be in the most negative sense possible, perhaps the absolute prohibition of travel in both directions, as well as minimizing remittances sent to the Island. In a broader sense, the existence of embassies and the maintenance of migratory agreements are in danger, in a context marked by the intensification of the economic blockade and subversive actions against Cuba.

Within this scenario, which favors the right, the experience of the scant public reaction that the Cuban-American community has had in the face of the enormous restrictions that Republicans have imposed on migration and contacts with their families in Cuba seems to be working, especially if the Cuban-American vote ends up favoring Donald Trump, as some predict.

Democrats have also not established a solid confrontation to Trump’s policy against Cuba. The same could happen if they lose the presidential election, since, even if they manage to advance their positions in Congress, the Republican challenge to the status quo will be of so large, and the political debate will be so flawed with conflicts, that the issue of Cuba will not be among its priorities.

Determined by the existing political polarization, where the positions of each side are located in the antipodes, everything would be different if the Democrats win the election. The party platform and statements made by the candidate, Joe Biden, both reject Trump’s policy and the immediate restoration of the foundations of the policy carried out by Barack Obama, considered one of the main legacies of their foreign policy and a domestic strategy, which worked positively for them in the 2008 and 2012 elections.

It is almost certain that business, travel, exchanges, and remittances will be encouraged, with a view to strengthening the private sector in Cuba, in line with the strategy of “smart power” that the Democrats have designed for Cuba. In the case of migration agreements, we cannot rule out that a Biden administration would propose a review of them, especially with a view of eliminating or reducing the minimum of 20,000 migrants annually, which could also be of interest to Cuba, faced with an excessive human drain of the most productive sectors of the nation.

Whatever the outcome, we can expect initiatives to do away with the Cuban Adjustment Act, considered an unjustified privilege by Democrats and a hindrance to many Republicans. There will also be more rigor in the deportation of undocumented Cuban immigrants, which could be part of a broader immigration reform, if the Democrats win a majority in both the House and the Senate.

Although Biden has not expressed himself openly against the existence of the blockade, as Obama did at the end of his term, the most important impact of a Democratic victory for Cuba policy would be to open the way in Congress for the elimination of the Helms-Burton Act, repudiated even by some Republican sectors interested in the Cuban market. It would be, moreover, a requirement of business groups interested in investing or trading with Cuba, those who would demand greater guarantees for their businesses in the future.

It is worth noting that none of these forecasts escapes variables such as the internal situation in the United States, threatened with legal conflicts and social disturbances whatever the electoral result; the international scene, especially the case of Venezuela and its repercussions for policy towards Cuba; as well as the Cuban reality itself, which faces enormous challenges in the future.

The results of the next elections could be decisive for the balance of forces in the Cuban-American community and its tendencies with respect to Cuba. If the Republicans win, the extreme right will see its status as the dominant political force in the Cuban-American enclave strengthened, but if a Democratic victory occurs, one cannot rule out the possibility that other moderate and left-wing currents will grow vigorously, especially with regard to the Cuban issue. 

Until the moment, there are no reliable studies to predict how Cuban Americans will vote. It is estimated that Trump obtained 54 percent support [among Cuban Americans] in 2016, and some predict that he could surpass 60 percent in November, but none of these studies were carried out after the impact of the pandemic, which limits their credibility. The objective trend has been a decrease of close to 30 percent of the Republican vote so far this century and, with higher or lower figures, everything indicates that this trend will remain unchanged in the immediate future, which works in favor of the Democrats.

Whatever the outcome, everything indicates that Cuba policy is doomed to profound reforms in immigration regulations, and the relations with its emigration, which would be facilitated by a Democratic victory. This is what awaits Cubans here and there, depending on the outcome of the presidential election in the United States.