The bogeyman returns, or the never ending Special Period

HAVANA – A ghost again hovers over Havana haunting the entire Island: It’s the specter of returning to the Special Period. 

First the eggs disappeared, then the flour and the bread, then the cooking oil. Then the chicken and, after that, the rest of the meat in stores that have never been well stocked, but now look emptier and with less people than ever. 

And even before that, much before and in silence, without anyone saying a word or explaining why, and little by little, the rice began to disappear. I speak of the Brazilian rice, the Guyanese, the Uruguayan: all those imported rices where one could choose the one that suited one best. There was not one grain that could be found, until this morning when the Vietnamese rice suddenly appeared; the problem is no one knows until when.

In the midst of everything, it is curious that persons who find chicken buy them by the box loads, as much as they can and the more the better. Yet, it has not occurred to anyone to begin amassing rice. They act like if the grain will always be there. 

And this is when referring to food, because another matter that makes my hair stand on end can be found by lifting one’s eyes for just a second from the food market and focusing them on the corner pharmacy where the line for medicine is as long as it is for the chicken. Neither can be found. Just in the last year alone, for example, between 45 and 150 medicines have disappeared from pharmacy counters.  

This being the case, it’s time to start worrying. The young one probably don’t remember, but in 1990 everything began disappearing, little by little, and when we came to realize it, we spent more time without electricity than with it, we ate ground soy (instead of minced meat or picadillo) and got sick with polyneuritis.

Last month’s deficit of most everything was recently explained — when the government was left with no choice — as the result of non-payments to foreign suppliers and the consequent lack of raw materials, but never as the initial symptom of a nearby disaster. Raúl Castro, in his speech proclaiming the new Constitution, warned: “The situation could worsen in the coming months. It is not a question of returning to the acute phase of the Special Period of the decade of the 90s of the last century. Today we face a new situation in terms of the diversification of the economy, but we must always prepare for the worst.”

If the idea rumbling in people’s minds has been mentioned by Raúl himself, we should then understand the seriousness of the matter. And though the General cited the Special Period simply as an example, the phrase, as mouthed by him, functions almost like an invocation of a terrible and ancient god whose name must never be uttered under any circumstances at the risk of conjuring all his wrath and fury. 

Ultimately, what notable difference can there be between “prepare for the worst” and that “dangerous phase”? It should not be forgotten that although the exact moment when the so-called “Special Period in Time of Peace” was proclaimed is traceable in the national press, until today’s sunrise no one has ever dared decree that such a special period has terminated. In other words, if the Special Period has not returned, nor will it return, it is for a single and simple reason: we are still living through it.

There is one –among many others– difference in this moment compared to when that free-fall was decreed in the 90s: Fidel was there.  And around him were a whole generation of people between 40 and 50-some-years-old who, together with their leader, made the Revolution and would die for it with him. And I do not speak of only the leaders, but of the people, who heard the seven-hour speeches in the Plaza and then went to do whatever they were asked, whatever was needed. Today most of that generation rests in peace or has naturally given its place to the next generation, which has its own characteristics.

If the previous statement could be dismissed as being too personal or too subjective, it could still differentiate another marked difference –unobjectionable, gigantic, objective — between that moment which was the definitive beginning of the crisis, and this new moment that is nothing more than a new twist of the screw: its trigger, its origin, its starting point.

Back then, incredibly and almost overnight, the Soviet Union disappeared. That in itself was amazing! The collapse of the red giant dragged half the world with it: Cuba lost something like 85 percent of its imports, lost the oil that arrived in great quantities, lost the ally that helped prop it up everywhere, and the island became isolated, alone in the middle of nowhere.

When you remember that and look up, you stumble upon a great truth: more or less, the main cause of that crisis was the collapse of the USSR and the Socialist camp. We did not have many solutions at hand, but at least we had the luxury of a certain explanation: the Soviet collapse was the origin of all evil.

Almost thirty years have passed since then, we are still in the middle of the Special Period and what is announced — something that is noticeable everywhere — is that, far from being resolved, the crisis could deepen to a “prepare for the worst.”

Today, when no wall has fallen in Berlin or anywhere else, when Russia behaves like a decent ally, when China is more present than ever in the Cuban economy, and when Venezuela is hanging on as best it can, where do we find the cause of this crisis?