The Florida race in black and white — with a dash of Trump thrown in

The Florida governor’s race will come down to President Donald Trump. 

Will Floridians have had enough of Trump? Or are they still believing his lies and wanting to Make America Great Again? (Or is it White Again?) In less than three weeks we should have some answers. And those will impact the 2020 presidential election.

Questions being asked include: Will Latinos decide the election? Or will it be the no-party-affiliated independents? Some say that women will be the deciding factor. I say it will be Trump who decides it… 

Yes, as much as I hate to admit it, Trump has become so much a part of our daily lives that even a governor’s race in Florida will be impacted by his tweets, visits and rants.

Take a look at the governor’s race. Democrat Andrew Gillum is the progressive Tallahassee mayor and the anti-Trump. Republican Ron DeSantis is the former member of Congress and Trump acolyte who won because of a Trump tweet that made him relevant. 

Every poll shows that it’s a close race, but one where Gillum has led in every reputable survey taken. This is important. Based on margins of error for these polls, these two are in a statistical tie. Although in every survey Gillum polls on top. So he is leading. But three weeks is a long time and anything can happen between today and Election Day (Nov. 6). 

So why is Trump the deciding factor? The president is the most polarizing political figure today. Many hate Trump, but there’s also another side that identifies with his hateful MAGA fear and racist message. And the bombastic, dyed blonde sitting in the Oval Office may spur both sides to come out in record numbers. 

I say record numbers because a normal midterm sees about 40 percent turnout of American voters. It’s a sad truth, I understand, but it means that if only half of eligible voters cast ballots, it will swell numbers compared to other years. And then it depends on who managed to turn out their voters. The question to ask then is whether the sides really know who their voters are. 

Let’s take a look at some of the numbers and try to arrive at some answers here. In Florida, according The Hill from a report published by the Pew Research Center, “837,000 Hispanics had registered to vote as Democrats as of Aug. 31, while only 527,000 had registered as Republicans. About 775,000 Hispanics registered with no party affiliation.”

Why is this interesting? Because in 2006 a majority of Hispanic registered voters in the state were Republicans. 

Rafael Bernal, of The Hill, explains that “the shift reflects a generational change among Cuban-Americans, as well as the growth of other Hispanic groups in Florida.

“In 1990, Cuban-Americans accounted for nearly half of all Hispanic eligible voters in the state, and Puerto Ricans accounted for 25 percent.

“In 2018, those two groups each account for 31 percent of Florida’s Hispanic voters. The remaining 38 percent is made up of people with ties to other countries of origin.”

The question then becomes: Will Hispanics vote in this election for governor? Are they interested?

There’s an apparent lack of interest from Hispanic/Latino voters around the country, but it may be different in Florida. Puerto Rico and Trump’s treatment of Puerto Ricans as third class U.S. citizens after Hurricane Maria may play a key role. Also, the other Latino communities may not feel kindly towards the president (and those who represent him) with his treatment of immigrants, especially the case of the thousands of caged children separated cruelly from their parents.

Finally, as for Latinos in Florida, careful study shows that almost every poll taken of independents in the country has them favoring the Democrat by an almost 60 to 40 margin, which does not bode well for Republicans. (That’s if they vote, of course.) And notice that the No Party Affiliated Hispanics in Florida are almost 50 percent larger in numbers than the Republicans. In other words, possible bad news for DeSantis.

Let’s take a look at women voters in Florida. And yes, a majority of white women voters cast ballots for Trump in 2016. But it is human to err, and women have shown themselves smarter than men. So it’s not surprising to see that polls indicate that today 63 percent of women around the country say they will vote for the Democrat, while only a third say they’ll vote Republican. And in Florida, like the rest of the country, women are a majority of the registered voters. So again, the numbers do NOT favor DeSantis.

And then there’s the black vote. They came out in record numbers for President Obama in 2008 and 2012. I think they will show up in record numbers in 2018, and they will vote for Gillum by a huge majority. And there’s more than 1.7 million black voters in Florida.

So it may come down to white men in the state — and how much they might hate the idea of a black governor in Tallahassee. 

One last factor I would throw into this equation. They are actually polling for enthusiasm. And a CNN poll shows that “Democrats’ enthusiasm … has increased and 62% now say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic to vote.” And that’s an uptick of 7 percentage points since September. “Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents,” the CNN poll tells us, “enthusiasm has remained relatively steady, going from 50% in September to 52% in the most recent poll.”

There you have it. I’m simply trying to understand the possibilities of this election based on numbers — real numbers. 

But there’s one more thing I ask readers to consider and think hard about when voting. 

Trump’s tentacles are spreading, and faster than some of us give him credit for. They are dangerous appendages of a foreboding reality that has experts using words like fascism, oligarchy and kleptocracy, and other terms that should scare the hell out of all of us.

A DeSantis win in Florida would simply empower a wannabe mini-Trump to lead the third largest state in the nation. And it would surely help speed-up the downfall of our state. A ruination that grew under governor Rick Scott.

I’ve show you the numbers. They are real and there are enough of us to beat these people — the Trumpsters, the deplorables, and the sonsofbitches — that want to turn the U.S. into a paradise for the one percenters. And led by the white masters. 

If you vote we can beat them. But only if you vote.