Joe Biden’s outlook on Cuba policy

HAVANA – On April 28, in an interview with the CBS News in Miami, Joe Biden, the Democratic Party nominee, declared that, in case of winning the elections, he would resume the policy towards Cuba carried out by Barack Obama, which would mean returning to the relationship between the countries’ at their best moment.

That he said it in Miami was meant for electoral reasons in order to mobilize forces that supported this process within the Cuban-American community, where Obama obtained 48 percent support in the 2012 elections, and Hillary Clinton 46 percent four years later. It was also a policy that had a high approval rating by American in general, particularly in important business sectors interested in the Cuban market.

From this perspective, the proposal to advocate for an improvement in relations with Cuba, as opposed to the Trump administration policy which bows to the Cuban-American right, seems quite safe for Democrats ahead of the 2020 elections. However Biden only went halfway and nuanced his statements saying that he would maintain sanctions against Cuba, due to Cuban support for Venezuela. This philosophy brings him closer to Donald Trump than to Obama, who always tried to maintain the policy towards the two countries in separate lanes.

Biden also assured that he would demand that Cuba fulfill the commitments contracted with the Obama administration, hinting that these are commitments related to aspects of Cuban politics inside and outside the country. The ridiculousness of such a promise is that such commitments never existed. A decisive factor in the outcome of the negotiations carried out by Obama with Cuba was that, aware that the Cuban government would not accept such demands, he never attempted to make claims that could be interpreted as damaging to national sovereignty or respect for relations between both countries.

A few days later, in order to criticize Trump’s policy towards Cuba, Biden chose a bad example and blamed Trump diplomacy for Cuba’s recent election to the UN Human Rights Council. In fact, since that body was created in 2006, no United States government has been able to prevent Cuba’s seven elections, and always with the highest voting levels in the American continent.

My first reaction to these statements is to assume that they respond to an old formula, determined by the complex held by liberals of not looking weak before countries considered adversaries of the United States, which also reflects the interventionist way of projecting foreign policy present in both Democrats and Republicans. In fact, it is a discourse that has been repeated for decades in Cuba’s case. Biden’s anachronism lies in not knowing that the experience of Obama’s policy changed these presumptions.

Biden tells CBS Miami that he WOULD restore Obama policy on Cuba

It is a myth that Cuba policy is decided in Miami. The influence of Cuban-Americans in the policy of the United States towards Cuba has depended, in essence, on being functional to the visions and interests of the U.S. government at all times. This explains the preponderance of the extreme right, except during the Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama presidencies when other alternative forces were empowered. The revitalization of the right during the current Trump administration only confirms this trend, given the electoral interests of the president in Florida.

Due to its validity over time, and the degree of penetration that the extreme right has achieved in the political and administrative structures in Miami’s Cuban-American enclave, there are very few South Florida politicians who have been able to get elected and function without mediating some type of commitment to these forces, much less when confronting their positions regarding Cuba. I refer here to groups that can be very violent, so the prevailing attitude has been to support their positions or avoid a conflict that frightens many.

Under these conditions, the historic conduct of the Democrats has been to compete with the Republicans for the right-wing vote. The exception was Obama, who, based on a smarter look at the political trends of the Cuban-American community, transformed the cost-benefit relationship linked to the agenda that advocated reviewing Cuba policy.

If Biden wants to adopt Obama’s policy, he must adopt his stance. It was never one of supporting the Cuban government, but Obama did recognize and collaborate on matters of mutual interest. It would even be logical to suppose that if Biden wants to create enthusiasm among advocates of this policy, he should start where Obama left off… a manifest rejection of the economic blockade, confirmed by Obama administration both in his latest directive on Cuba, and in the unusual abstention by the United States at the UN, when the General Assembly voted against this policy in 2016.

The sectors that support the blockade, even its half application as a pressure mechanism, are far from the Obama philosophy and have a Republican soul, as confirmed under the presidency of Donald Trump. A lesson for all parties is that the experiment of a change in relations between the two countries cannot be reconstructed under conditions as fragile as those achieved during the Obama administration. Going back would be much less inspiring.

Another argument one hears is that although Obama had significant support from the Cuban-American community, support for Donald Trump has grown during his administration, even among those who have emigrated more recently, so the Democratic strategy should not alienate these people. Just as Obama’s policy fueled expectations in relations with Cuba that triggered approval ratings for the rapprochement, it is not surprising that the opposite occurs in the existing political context, especially when the political forces that supported the change have done little to counteract the extreme right.

In truth, it is surprising to see the impunity with which the Cuban-American community has been mistreated on issues as sensitive as their migratory rights and the relations with their families in Cuba. Logic would call for Democrats to defend Cuban-Americans — especially when the so-called moderate groups gained a certain relevance during the Obama years and in the last several years unseated two of three Republican members of congress in districts with a high concentration of Cuban-Americans. However, except for some inconsequential declarations and legislative actions, little has been done in this regard.

Finally, there is the supposed importance of the Cuba issue in the decision of Cuban-American voters. I personally think that except for whether to vote for Donald Trump or not, no one issue will be decisive in the coming elections. However, the complex construction of the Democratic platform and its ability to mobilize voters will have to be the result of satisfying many interests, especially accommodating the positions of the left that propelled the Bernie Sanders candidacy, and today can be seen played out dramatically in the ongoing social revolts. The issue of Cuba is one that could bring Joe Biden closer to the progressive sectors. He needs to take advantage of it.