Jeb no shoo-in as scope on him intensifies
MIAMI – Back to back losses in the 2008 and 2012 presidential races have many Republicans – especially in Florida – dreamy-eyed about Jeb Bush. The fact that the Republican Party seems to be producing wacko politicians, a la Ted Cruz, has some selling Jeb as the counterbalance to the Party’s tilt to the very far right.
But lest we forget Jeb’s brother, George W. finished his second term as president with his popularity ratings at floor level, and a U.S. economy in ruins. At the time nobody believed another Bush would dare attempt a run at the White House; W’s presidency hung around the political family’s neck like an albatross.
Now there are many who believe that a Jeb Bush nomination is practically a done deal. It may be… But it won’t be easy.
If you’ll remember, at the end of January, I wrote that an NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll found that 13 percent of people polled around the country did not know who Jeb Bush was.
Jeb’s lack of name recognition has a quick fix: money, lots of it. And Jeb is raking in bagfuls, as reported in a recent Conexión Miami column. We reported of the fund-raising event at the home of private-equity titan Henry Kravis in New York City where a contribution of $100,000 or more got you in the door.
There’s also the national media that’s digging deep into Jeb’s past. A past he would rather keep in mothballs. They’ve reported, contrary to what many believed, Jeb was an average to poor student, thereby comparing him, in a bad light, to older brother George W. They’ve also reported that, according to friends back in the day, Jeb had a thing for his bong while in college. Then there are the former classmates who have called him a bully, citing his 6 feet 4 inch stature…
There’s also Columba, Jeb’s wife, known for her spending habits, on bling and other expensive things. And The Washington Post recently reminded us of when U.S. Customs stopped her in 1999, for (oops!), “misrepresenting the amount of clothing and jewelry she had bought while on a solo five-day shopping spree in Paris.”
Media scopes are now on Jeb and will only become more focused as November 2016 nears. And yet, if I were a betting man, I’d still wager on Jeb as the republican favorite. But the road forward will not be a cakewalk.
Cuba, Iowa and Texas
The island is a subject where Jeb has always sided with his anti-Cuba, Miami buddies. But money seems to have gotten in the way. Read what Rachel Maddow had to say in her MSNBC evening program: “Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush blasted the Obama administration’s decision to normalize relations with Cuba in a Facebook post … but in an example of why Bush’s ties to private equity and Barclays could provide fodder for opponents and critics, Barclays (which reportedly pays Bush more than a million dollars a year) had to settle criminal charges for violating sanctions that included Cuba.”
This will not help him with the Miami crowd – a group that has grown smaller anyway as it tilts towards a more moderate position, especially in presidential elections, among Cuban Americans.
Then there’s the Iowa Republican Caucus, traditionally a strong indicator of what to expect in the presidential marathon. An early look shows a strong conservative tilt as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the pack with 25 percent, twice as high as his nearest rival, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this week.
“There is a horse race for second place, with 13 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, 11 percent each for Michigan physician Ben Carson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 10 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush,” according to the poll.
Finally, a survey “done by the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune showed [Wisconsin Governor Scott] Walker leads all potential candidates in Texas with 20 percent of those surveyed stating they would support him as the candidate.”
Forward Progressives states in an article when discussing the Texas poll: “Notice it’s Walker who leads in Texas, not Sen. Ted Cruz, Rick Perry or Jeb Bush [who garnered 9%]. That’s pretty bad. For someone from Wisconsin to lead three very well-known Texas politicians (Bush was born here) is pretty embarrassing.”
So I ask, “Is Jeb Bush a shoo-in?” I don’t think so. But it’s still early. The thing is that the last time I checked, the hot water was starting to boil, and Jeb was sticking his toe in the cauldron.
Personally, I hope he gets burned… figuratively speaking, of course.
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