Florida governor’s race a virtual tie; turnout will determine the winner
As a member of Congress, the Republican running for governor of Florida voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act (known as Obamacare), while the Democrat believes that healthcare should be a fundamental right of every Floridian. The Republican favors public financing of non-public schools, while the Democrat wants to increase funding for public schools and the raising of teachers’ salaries.
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen two so diametrically opposed candidates running for governor of Florida. The difference between Republican Ron DeSantis, 40, and Democrat Andrew Gillum, 39, is like choosing between the colors of black and white (literally).
I believe that Gillum favors what’s best for the people of Florida and DeSantis owes his nomination to President Trump, and therefore will fall in line with whatever the Donald asks him to do — or say.
What is so good about all of this is the fact that I don’t ever remember so much enthusiasm for a midterm election in Florida. We’re seeing the kind of excitement in 2018 reserved for presidential elections. Hopefully, it will translate to a record turnout in November.
There are reasons for this energy. First, thank the president. Donald Trump is a polarizing figure. Secondly, as I’ve already mentioned, the differences and what each candidate seems to be offering. So, if you’re happy with where the country is headed, under Trump, you’ve got your guy in DeSantis — he seems the perfect presidential puppet in the third largest state in the nation. Now, if you’re unhappy with the state of our nation and want change, Gillum has proven that he’s willing to take on the powers that be — including inside his own Party — and set a progressive course for Florida, and the country.
Now to the problem, if like me, you’re working for a Gillum victory on November 6. (Yes! the election is less than five weeks from today.)
Gillum has led in every poll conducted since his surprising victory in the primary. That’s good.
My fear? People tend to look at polls as decisive. The fact is that polls don’t vote.
We can’t take this for granted. We MUST vote.
People are enthused with the $15 and hour minimum wage Gillum strives for in Florida; the $50,000 minimum salary for teachers he’s promised; a Medicare for all inclusive health care system where nobody is left out; equal rights for all; and a host of other progressive programs that stand no chance with DeSantis.
But… and it’s a big but: The only way Gillum wins in November is if Florida voters cast their votes in record numbers: And if minority voters decide to come out massively for Gillum: And if young people are heard — and vote.
Finally, in the primary, Gillum turned out approximately 150,000 voters who had never voted, or had not voted in years… On November 6, that number must be even larger.
This week the Tampa Bay Times reported that a Mason-Dixon survey of 815 likely voters was conducted at the end of September that showed Gillum drawing 46 percent support and DeSantis 45 percent (with a 3.5 percent plus/minus). In other words, this is a tied race. The good news? In every poll conducted since the primary, no matter how close, Gillum always appears in front, which means little, but in these things, the front runner has, at least, a psychological lead.
According to the Times report:
“Mason-Dixon found DeSantis leading among men by 15 percentage points and Gillum leading among women by 14. They each drew 41 percent support among independent voters.
“DeSantis was beating Gillum 54 percent to 35 among white voters, while Gillum led among black voters 89 percent to 4 and among Hispanic voters 50 to 37 percent. DeSantis led among voters 50 and up, while Gillum led among those under 50.
“DeSantis led in north Florida by 22 points, in the Orlando/central Florida area by 4, and in southwest Florida by 13. Gillum led in southeast Florida by 27 and was neck and neck with DeSantis, 46 to 45, in Tampa Bay.”
Also, recent polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com has Gillum ahead by an average of 3.7 percentage points.
Topping it off is the fact that earlier this week former president Barack Obama endorsed Gillum saying that “Andrew believes that health care is a right, not a privilege and he will make expanding Medicaid a priority on day one as governor.”
So Gillumn has Obama, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in his corner. DeSantis has Trump. Florida has not elected a governor from the Democratic Party since Lawton Chiles in the first half of the 1990s.
Turnout will decide this election. If few people vote, as is the case with most midterms, bet on DeSantis. If the turnout is greater than usual with a large participation of minorities, young people and new voters, then plan on celebrating a Gillum victory in November.
BUT YOU MUST VOTE for this to happen.
