Cuba’s off the list, will it matter? (+Español)

The White House today (Jan. 14) rescinded Cuba’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, suspended for 6 months the right to bring an action in U.S. courts under Title III of the Helms-Burton Act, and eliminated the list of prohibited Cuban entities for financial transactions by U.S. citizens and institutions. 

Six days before abandoning the presidency, the Biden Administration announced a major policy change on Cuba – contrary to statements by Secretary of State Antony Blinken on December 12, 2024, discarding any change.

Simultaneously, the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Relations (MINREX) declared that “in the spirit of the 2025 Jubilee, the Cuban State will free persons serving [prison] sentences”. President Miguel Diaz-Canel communicated to Pope Francis the decision to gradually free 533 persons convicted for various crimes under Cuban law.

The Cuban government does not link this decision with the policy changes announced by the U.S. government. Still, the coincidence seems to indicate that this was a quid pro quo resulting from negotiations mediated by the Vatican.

The Trump Administration could reinstate the sanctions once it assumes the presidency on January 20, but in theory, they should at least respect the rescission of Cuba’s SSOT designation for six months and then call for a Review and Assessment by the State Department. The Secretary of State—in this case, none other than Marco Rubio—then decides to approve this initial revision, notifies Congress, and re-implements the sanctions. However, if he desires, Trump may forego the process and revert this and other decisions right away.

Cuba esta fuera de la lista, ¿importará? (+English)

Tomorrow’s congressional hearing on Rubio´s nomination may provide an indication of the new administration’s course.

International banks may continue to block transactions with Cuba if they assume that the designation will be reinstated in 12 months.

In the end, whether these last-minute decisions by the Biden Administration will have any meaningful impacts on Cuba is for the future to tell.

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