Angie Nixon
Florida resisted the turn against Trump, but Miami sent a different message
The shellacking Republicans took in last Tuesday’s election was unexpected. A Republican loss in the House of Representatives was forecast, and polls told us the Senate was in play, but the blue wave Democrats wanted became a tsunami that turned an overwhelmingly red map on Monday into a blue blanket by Wednesday, covering states such as Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, and many others.
Democrats captured control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate. The party made gains in areas long considered safely Republican, showing that dissatisfaction with the administration was not confined to traditional Democratic strongholds. Voters’ dissatisfaction went beyond partisan politics. Inflation, the rising cost of living, economic insecurity, immigration enforcement, the war with Iran, and growing concerns about presidential power all contributed to a national climate of discontent.
The Associated Press reported that Democrats made substantial gains among younger voters, Hispanic voters, Black voters, and moderates. Approximately seven in ten voters under 30 supported Democratic House candidates. Hispanic voters also shifted substantially toward Democrats nationally, reversing much of the ground Republicans had gained in 2024. It was a remarkable political turnaround. But nowhere was the contrast between the national political climate and local results more striking than in Florida.
Florida, the outlier
Despite the Democratic wave, Florida remained firmly in the Republican column statewide. Republican Byron Donalds defeated Democrat David Jolly in the gubernatorial race, becoming Florida’s first Black governor. Republican Ashley Moody also retained her U.S. Senate seat, defeating Democrat Angie Nixon in the special election to complete the remainder of Marco Rubio’s term.
Both victories, however, were considerably closer than Republicans might have hoped. Donalds received about 50% of the vote, while Jolly finished just under 49%. Moody won about 51%, with Nixon approaching 48%. These were not mandates, but victories in a state where Republicans have built a substantial registration advantage and where Democratic candidates still face significant organizational and political obstacles.
Miami-Dade: A different political message
If Florida was the national election’s outlier, Miami-Dade was arguably the state’s most interesting political exception. The county swung about 18 percentage points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. Miami-Dade voters supported David Jolly over Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon over Ashley Moody.
Nixon received approximately 53% of the county’s vote, compared with Moody’s 46%. Jolly performed almost identically, receiving nearly 53% against Donalds’ approximately 46%.
It is true that the county’s Hispanic-majority neighborhoods still favored Republicans, but by much smaller margins than in previous elections. This shows that Miami’s Cuban American and other Hispanic electorate cannot be treated as a single political bloc.
Meanwhile, Black-majority neighborhoods overwhelmingly supported the Democratic candidates, and white-majority neighborhoods also shifted toward them. Even in Doral, a community that strongly backed Trump in 2024, Jolly and Nixon made substantial gains.
So surely, Miami-Dade did not simply turn blue. It became more politically competitive, as different communities expressed different priorities.
Three Cuban American Republicans survive, but are warned
Perhaps the most revealing congressional results concerned Miami’s three incumbent Cuban American Republican representatives: Mario Díaz-Balart, María Elvira Salazar and Carlos Giménez. All three retained their seats.
Their victories demonstrate that the Republican political infrastructure in South Florida, particularly among certain Cuban American constituencies, remains formidable. The traditional anti-communist message, concerns about Cuba and Venezuela, immigration politics, and party loyalty continue to carry considerable weight.
But the margins tell a more complicated story. Díaz-Balart won his congressional district by less than one percentage point. Salazar’s race against Democrat Eliott Rodriguez was even closer, by about 0.46 percentage points, triggering Florida’s automatic recount threshold. Giménez had a more comfortable victory, though his margin was still not an overwhelming endorsement.
Angie Nixon
Another important story that emerged from this election involves Angie Nixon.
Although Nixon did not win her Senate race, she may have accomplished something that extends beyond the outcome of one election: energizing voters and bringing people back into a political process from which many had become disconnected. Nixon’s campaign was built on grassroots organizing, neighborhood outreach, volunteers, and an appeal to working families. She spoke about housing costs, economic inequality, healthcare, immigration, and the everyday pressures facing ordinary Floridians.
Her approach was not simply to persuade traditional Democratic voters to support her. It was to reach people who felt neither political party was paying sufficient attention to their circumstances. Nixon’s campaign helped foster that sense of participation and urgency. Even in defeat, she demonstrated that a candidate with a comparatively modest political establishment behind her can generate enthusiasm, organize communities, and make an election competitive.
Sadly, until the end, the Democratic Party political establishment ignored her, or tried to, until polls showed that Nixon had a good chance of winning. Their decision to shun her had much to do with Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America.
Democrats, if they want to remain viable in the coming years, will have to get over themselves and the old party stalwarts who don’t feel the need to make the changes required to deal with a new world and new constituencies looking for someone to lead them. That is why Florida Democrats should not overlook that lesson and work to expand the inclusive tent they like to boast about.
A look ahead
The 2026 election leaves Republicans with a serious political problem. They retain Florida, but they have lost control of Congress and face a national electorate increasingly concerned about the direction of the country. For Democrats, the challenge is equally clear. Winning elections requires more than opposing Trump. It requires building a sustainable coalition, addressing economic concerns and maintaining the enthusiasm of voters who have historically felt ignored.
Miami offers an especially important lesson. The survival of Díaz-Balart, Salazar and Giménez demonstrates that Republican strength in the Cuban American community has not disappeared. However, Jolly and Nixon’s victories in Miami-Dade show that the county is not locked into the political alignment of the earlier Trump years.
The Hispanic electorate is changing, younger voters are participating, and economic concerns are increasingly competing with the traditional political messages that have long dominated South Florida. Perhaps the most important lesson is that no political party should take Miami’s voters for granted.
Trump asked Americans to make the midterms a referendum on his presidency. Much of the country answered with a resounding rejection. Florida answered differently. But Miami sent its own message: the political landscape is shifting, the old assumptions are being challenged, and the voters who show up can change the conversation.
The next election will tell us whether this was a temporary reaction or the beginning of a lasting political realignment.
