A look at the new measures taken by Obama

HAVANA — A confluence of events has recently involved Cuba and the United States: the first round of the Bilateral Commission, intended to set up a chart for the negotiations; President Obama’s speech to a group of U.S. businessmen, asking them to pressure Congress into lifting the blockade; the accreditation of a new Cuban ambassador to Washington, and the recent telephone conversation between presidents Obama and Castro, wherein they reportedly analyzed the status of the relations and their future.

All this happens in the framework of Pope Francis’ visit to both countries, the upcoming debate at the United Nations General Assembly about the economic blockade against Cuba, and the presence of the Cuban president at the U.N., where it is likely that he and Obama will meet again.

It is in this context that we must analyze the release of the new Treasury Department regulations aimed at relaxing the measures that mandate the economic blockade against Cuba.

It is still too soon to predict the real reach of those measures, inasmuch as it would require the legal interpretations for their application, as well as the consensus of both governments needed to execute them. Nevertheless, as expressed by the Cuban Foreign Minister, it can be said that advances are being made in the right direction and therein lies the essence of their importance.

In broad terms, it is possible to assume that the new measures can facilitate bilateral relations in various fields.

In terms of telecommunications and the Internet — a topic prioritized by U.S. policy — it has become possible for U.S. firms to set up businesses, including joint ventures, with state-owned Cuban entities. Also, to import Cuban applications and hire Cuban personnel for their development; to export U.S. products, and grant credit and payment terms.

In terms of financial and commercial transactions, the ban is lifted from émigrés who live in third countries, and Cubans who visit the United States are allowed to open bank accounts there, easing the regulations on their use once the account holders return to Cuba. U.S. travelers may also open bank accounts in Cuba.

U.S. businesses and institutions authorized to have relations with Cuba may maintain a physical presence on the island, in the form of offices and warehouses. They may also open bank accounts, hire Cuban nationals and import the supplies they need for their operations.

U.S. suppliers may grant credit and payment terms to private Cuban citizens for the importation of food and construction supplies from the United States.

Air and sea transportation between the two countries will be facilitated, as well as the eventuality that a greater number of U.S. citizens may travel to Cuba within the established categories.

The range of possibilities for the importation of supplies and services related to air safety and humanitarian care for passengers has been broadened.

In the scientific and educational fields, joint research without commercial purpose will be authorized. The use of the Internet for long-distance courses and examinations is approved.

The limits for remittances from the U.S. to Cuba have been eliminated; remittances from Cuba to the U.S. are allowed.

Finally, for the proper functioning of the Cuban Embassy and consulates, bank transactions by Cuban diplomats are authorized, as well as the transactions involving the international funds managed by those entities.

Evidently, these measures fit the tactic used by the Obama administration of acting gradually and within limits when it comes to easing the blockade against Cuba. They also leave out other decisions with major impact, among them:

• The possibility of the use of the dollar in Cuban transactions.
• The access by Cuba to international credit.
• The elimination of restrictions on payments for imports from the U.S., as has been done in the field of telecommunications.
• The expansion of the list of permissible commercial items, at least in the field of medicine and health-care supplies, which so seriously affect the Cuban population.
• The possibility that the general licenses for travel established for U.S. citizens will be applicable to individuals, not just to groups, as at present.

While these decisions are not made, the measures adopted will be afflicted by serious financial inconveniences and will be subject to so many interpretations and legal obstacles that often they will be impracticable.

It seems reasonable that Obama will try to avoid any step that could be the target of legal challenge from his opponents. He will also increase his pressure upon Congress to end the blockade, which would be the definitive solution to the problem.

Nevertheless, such an attitude also increases the chances for influence by sectors of the governmental bureaucracy that are traditionally connected with the Cuban-American far right. No doubt, such sectors are “crying wolf” to the OFAC while waiting for better times.

Some U.S. analysts say that another decisive factor in the implementation of these measures will be Cuba’s reaction, and they cite two basic inconveniences: the existence of a dual currency and the impossibility of hiring workers directly, as hiring would have to be done through Cuban companies.

In the case of the dual currency, yes, that’s a problem for the entire Cuban economy that the government has acknowledged and is trying to solve.

The ban on direct hiring also is criticized in Cuba and therefore could be the object of revision. However, it remains to be seen if it’s a matter that really concerns U.S. businessmen or if it suits the policy intended to promote the alleged “independence of the civil society from the Cuban State,” as the U.S. leaders themselves have proclaimed.

As I see it, these are not the main problems that the Cuban side faces in its economic relations with the United States. Others are much more substantial, even in the eventuality that the economic blockade is lifted.

First, since the reestablishment of relations with the U.S., the scale of Cuba’s international trade has grown not only with the U.S. but also with the rest of the world. That requires structural adjustments that affect Cuba’s entire economic system.

Second, new economic actors have appeared — generated by the very reforms in the Cuban economic system — whose integration into the model is due not only to the jobs they create and their contributions to the internal revenue but also to their ability to meet the needs of society and the full realization of their cultural and productive potential.

This also implies a revision of the respective policies, not so much because of the U.S. projections toward Cuba’s private sector but because of our country’s own needs.

Finally, there’s the problem of economic dependence. The U.S. market is so attractive and all-encompassing to Cuba, that it will be hard for competitors to survive unless a national policy is created that will regulate trade relations.

Our national sovereignty must be guided by this logic. Its proper balance will provide the guarantees of success for Cuba at this new juncture.

Progreso Weekly authorizes the total or partial reproduction of the articles written by our journalists, so long as source and author are identified.

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Readout of the President’s call with Cuban President Raul Castro