Third party candidate may be critical in Florida governor’s race

MIAMI.- Ninety-nine days to go in Florida. A bit more than three months to know who will be the next governor. For those who expected a cake walk for Charlie Crist, the most recent polls are telling us that the incumbent, Rick Scott, is in a statistical dead-heat to regain his seat.

Let’s begin by clarifying that Crist has yet to win the Democratic Party’s primary against little known former state senator Nan Rich. He is expected to do so come August 26. Then the real fireworks should begin.

What’s most interesting at this point is that Gov. Scott, who has never been well liked by Floridians, or for that matter even considered a good governor, is polling single digit points behind former republican governor now turned democrat Crist. Real Clear Politics has averaged out several important polls and has Crist leading by a mere 3.6 points.

But Crist, who as of less than a year ago had a double-digit lead over Scott, may be running into a problem. There’s a Libertarian candidate, Adrian Wyllie, in the governor’s race, who is doing much better than anyone expected.

The Miami Herald’s Marc Caputo explained it best when he said, “Libertarian Adrian Wyllie pulls 9 percent support, according to Quinnipiac University’s survey, which shows Crist’s 2 percentage-point lead would grow to 5 points without Wylie on the ballot.”

Third party candidates have a history of spoiling the Democratic Party’s November dance. Or have we forgotten the 2000 presidential race where Al Gore lost by a mere (and very questionable) 534 votes to George W. Bush? That election saw Libertarian and Green Party candidates suck 113,833 (almost 2 percent) votes from this very tight race – most prominent of these two spoilers being Ralph Nader who garnered 97,427 of the Florida votes.

All experts agree that without a Ralph Nader in the race, Gore would have won easily in Florida – even with the strange goings-on that occurred in that historic race.

The Herald’s Caputo writes, “With Wyllie on the ticket, Crist loses more support among self-identified independents (9 percentage points) than Scott (4 points). Independents comprise about a quarter of Florida’s vote.

“From supporting medical marijuana to opposing most abortion restrictions, Wyllie’s stand on social issues is closer to Crist’s than Scott’s.”

That’s bad news if you’re a Crist supporter. But let’s take a look at some facts that has led to Scott’s sudden (since November, when Crist announced his candidacy) rise in the polls.

The mother’s milk of American politics, money!

Only recently did Crist and the Democrats spend any of it on television. In June they finally dropped $4 million throughout Florida. Scott at the same time has already spent $18 million on television hammering on what polls tell us are Crist negatives. Before Crist had spent his $4 million, Scott had already spent $12 million. The Scott advertising blitz seems to have worked.

Crist knows he will NEVER raise as much money as Scott. And in fact, if need be, Scott is willing to spend his own money to win. (Scott spent more than $70 million of his own dollars in 2010 to defeat Alex Sink.) So Crist is saving as much as possible to spend when the proverbial rubber meets the road in the coming months. And if you look at the polls, the Scott negatives outweigh those of Crist. So we can expect plenty of negative ads in September and October – from both sides.

But a good advertising campaign does work. And when you’ve spent almost five times as much as your opponent… Scott’s numbers have risen. For example, Scott’s job approval of 43 percent against a 48 percent disapproval may seem lousy, but it is his best ever as governor. And Crist’s favorability rating is at an all time low of 40 favorable and 42 percent unfavorable.

Crist seems to have taken the offensive in the past week, though. According to a SurveyUSA poll conducted by a Tampa Bay-area TV station, the choice of Annette Taddeo-Goldstein, the Colombian-American democrat from Miami, as his choice for lieutenant governor seems to have had a positive effect for the democrats. The poll conducted right after the selection of Taddeo-Goldstein has Crist leading Scott 46 to 40 – but that’s without taking Wylie into account.

As one can see and the polls indicate, the race for governor in Florida is fluid and should remain so in the next 90-plus days. Crist, who seemed to have the upper hand just a few months back, now appears to be on a slippery slope – downward or upward will all depend on advertising and public appearances before voters and TV cameras.

Scott, not very good with the media, seems to have run into a problem just this past week by refusing to answer legitimate questions from reporters – a problem that may be his undoing in November.

Still, and after these latest polls that have taken into account the Libertarian candidate, I ask myself if this will be another year when progressive voters throughout Florida end up shooting themselves in the foot by backing a candidate who has little or no chance of winning – at the expense of a Crist.

Charlie may not be what we want, but he sure is a few steps up from a terrible Rick Scott.