Mario’s kryptonite: Year of the woman, new voters and the taint of the NRA

MIAMI – After the brutal attack that occurred in Parkland, Florida, this past Valentine’s Day, students from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School reacted to the killing spree by mobilizing themselves, and other young people from around the U.S. Critical of the National Rifle Association, they promised to work against politicians accepting money from that organization. And to make this stand against the NRA meaningful, the Stoneman Douglas leaders proceeded to register voters.

A recent report by the Miami Herald reveals that their work has not gone in vain. What follows is a snippet of the revealing Herald article:

[An] analysis by TargetSmart, a data firm that works on behalf of Democrats, shows that the share of newly registered Florida voters between the ages of 18-29 increased by eight percentage points in the two and a half months after the Valentine’s Day mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida.

Voters between the ages of 18-29 made up 26.23 percent of all new voter registrations in Florida in the two and a half months before Feb. 14, 2018. In the two and a half months after the shooting, young voters made up 34.22 percent of all new voter registrations in Florida.

The eight percentage point gain also shows that young voters are now a bigger share of all new voters…

[…]

The total number of young people registering to vote also went up. From Dec. 1, 2017, to Feb. 14, 2018, 27,789 18- 29-year-olds registered in Florida, and between Feb. 14 and April 30, 39,218 young people registered, according to TargetSmart. The 11,429 more voters that registered represent a 41 percent increase.

The total number of new voters from ages 30 to 49 increased slightly after the shooting, while the total number of new voters from ages 49 and up decreased by 4,240 votes in the three months after the shooting.

Why is this important? Because the two politicians in Florida who over the years have received the most money from the NRA are Marco Rubio and Mario Diaz-Balart. Marco does not have an election until 2022. But Mario’s turn may be up in November.

And 2018 has not been a good year for political dynasties from the Miami area. Ask the Diaz de la Portillas or the Barreiros, for example. Both, (at one time) Republican heavyweights who had strongholds on their districts, lost to progressive Democrats and newcomers in areas that include Miami’s Little Havana — for years a Republican bastion.

It turns out that Mario may be running scared. His opponent is former judge Mary Barzee Flores, who exited the Donna Shalala-dominated CD 27 Democratic primary on the last day of qualifying to instead take on Diaz-Balart.

There are some interesting indicators that Barzee Flores might be up to the task of upsetting the Miami Republican. For starters, and as reported by the website Florida Politics, “In his first fundraising quarter with Flores in the race, Diaz-Balart – an 8-term congressman with plum committee assignments – barely bested his new opponent. Mario put up a respectable $508K haul for the period, but Flores was nipping at his heels with over $450K raised by her campaign.”

But more importantly, I believe, is the fact that we are witnessing an electorate tired of the same old politicians telling them the same old lies. Also noteworthy is the first ad put out by the Diaz-Balart campaign. 

Winners tell their stories. Their achievements. Their successes. But after 16 years in Washington, and before that practically a lifetime in Tallahassee as state legislator, Mario’s first commercial is one where he attacks his opponent — helping her achieve greater name recognition. This signals that after decades in political power, Mario Diaz-Balart has little to show other than a strong penchant to try to imitate his brother Lincoln’s irritating, outdated, and bombastic speaking style.

Another notable fact pointed out by the Florida Politics article is that “Diaz-Balart has essentially zero small donors to his campaign. His latest FEC report lists a mere $850 in ‘unitemized’ contributions under $200. Flores literally outraised him in this category by a factor of over 100-to-1, pulling in roughly $86,000 in grassroots donations during the same period.”

That’s important. And for more than one reason. First, small contributions are usually made from people in the voting district; they often volunteer and work for “their” candidate. Secondly, a candidate can always go back to the small contributor and ask for another small contribution. It was a formula used very successfully by Bernie Sanders in 2016 — when a majority of his contributions were under $100.

Will Mario lose the November election? I don’t know. But I am hearing that his camp is nervous. The Republican over Democrat numbers still favor him. And yet, the fastest growing party is the No Party Affiliation, whose numbers are almost on par with Democrats and Republicans in the district — most sick and tired of what they’re seeing our political system turn into. And then there’s the young people fed up with the NRA and its acolytes in Congress. Lastly, many predict that 2018 will be the ‘Year of the Woman’ in American politics.

All are factors that do not favor the incumbent. 

And I can imagine Mario sweating just about now.

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If you have not registered to vote yet, July 30 is the final day to do so if you’re going to vote in the primaries. It’s important that you do so.

Click here and register now. (Available in English and Spanish.)