Five issues that may decide the Florida governor’s race
MIAMI.- Florida’s gubernatorial election is less than three months away. This one may be the most important governor’s race in the country with national implications, especially for 2016. The primary has yet to take place – it’s slated for Tuesday August 28 – but most everyone expects a down to the wire race between incumbent republican Rick Scott and democratic challenger Charlie Crist. And what seemed like a cakewalk for Crist less than a year ago now looks to be decided by a handful of votes.
There is no doubt that money will play a key role. Doesn’t it always in our plutocracy? But I’ve got a hunch that this election will come down to much more. There are numerous factors at work that should play a key role in influencing the voters.
Let’s start with the obvious: money
Rick Scott will have more than Crist. No one doubts this. In fact, since early this year Scott has spent nearly $30 million (a drop in the bucket…) attacking Crist by way of the media. It’s worked. At the start of the publicity barrage by Scott, Crist held a comfortable double-digit lead in most every poll. The latest surveys have both men at a virtual tie. Pundits predict more than $100 million will be spent in this race.
Remember that in 2010 no one expected Scott to win. He doled out more than $70 million of his own money and assured himself a razor-thin victory over democrat Alex Sink. Who’s to say Scott won’t dig deep into his pockets again? He can afford it. And the money he’s already spent shows it helps to even out his many negatives.
As for Crist, he’s spent very little money on his campaign, in comparison to Scott. He’s saving it for the end – when the undecided voters usually make up their minds. And ‘undecideds’ win elections in Florida.
A third party spoiler
In an article last month I wrote that third party candidates have a history of playing spoiler in Florida. And this time around it looks like Libertarian Adrian Wyllie may be in line to play the role yet again. As Marc Caputo explained in a Miami Herald article: “Libertarian Adrian Wyllie pulls 9 percent support, according to Quinnipiac University’s survey, which shows Crist’s 2 percentage-point lead would grow to 5 points without Wylie on the ballot.” These numbers go back to a July survey and may have changed, but they demonstrate how fluid this race has become.
Gay marriage
Rick Scott is against it. Charlie Crist has come out in favor of it. Wedge issues such as these are used during elections to turn out certain groups of voters. And the gay issue in Florida is at the forefront in a state that has areas with a large gay population. Will they vote for Crist? They better if he hopes to win. A Quinnipiac University poll taken in April found a majority of Florida voters supported allowing same-sex couples to marry, with 56 percent of those polled in favor and 39 percent opposed. Support was slightly higher among women, 57 percent, compared to 55 percent of men.
Medicinal marijuana
I find this to be a fascinating issue – and one that may be the deciding factor this year. And may turn out to be a national issue come the presidential election of 2016. Again, Rick Scott is against it. Charlie Crist has come out in favor of it.
The most influential republican in the state and its elder statesmen, Jeb Bush, has come out strongly against it. Yet according to “a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 88% of Florida voters back legalized medical marijuana, including 80% of Republicans. And more than half of voters favor the idea of allowing adults to have small amounts of pot for recreational use,” reported CNN.
Cuba
Charlie Crist reiterated just this past week that he favors a different political view on Cuba. He’d eliminate the embargo and says he plans to travel to Cuba if he is elected. He views a relationship with Cuba as a potential source of business and a job creator. Crist seems so set on the Cuba issue he’s even convinced his running mate, Annette Taddeo-Goldstein, into espousing the positive effects it would have on the Florida economy.
Of course, Scott takes the opposite view on Cuba. He insists on more of the same with the island-nation next door. His running mate, the son of Cuban Americans, is even more steadfast on the issue.
Yet again, the polls seem to favor the Crist stand.
There are other issues that are on the table. But these five give voters a very clear choice in the matter of who will govern Florida going forward. In fact, it’s been a while since I can remember of two candidates vying for the state’s top political spot who had such divergent philosophies about what Florida needs.
In my opinion, if enough voters participate, Crist should win this race. Still, it will be tight and Wyllie, the third party candidate, may play a major role if he continues to poll close to double digits.
There’s also the case of some democrats still not convinced that Crist is a true democrat. The fact that Crist refused to debate his opponent in the primary, Nan Rich, I believe has hurt him. Crist also is relying on the issues cited above – from marijuana to the gay and Cuba issues to drive out voters that normally would not participate during a midterm election.
Then there is Rick Scott and his money. If turnout is low – not surprising for a midterm election – then Governor Scott and his millions may be headed for reelection.
Personally, as a longtime Floridian, if Scott is reelected it would be tragic for our state.
