Five Cuban economists are working on a proposal for Cuba’s economic transformation
The project, which we have named Cuba Transformation, is based on the idea that the Cuban economy is facing a complex situation, driven by both internal and external factors.
Since March of this year, five Cuban economists—Mauricio De Miranda Parrondo, Pedro Monreal González, Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva, Ricardo Torres Pérez, and Pavel Vidal Alejandro—with support from the Cuba Study Group and the Observatory on the Cuban Economy, have been engaging in a collective reflection exercise on the economic changes Cuba would need in the event of institutional and political change. The main goal is to contribute, from an economic analysis standpoint, to identifying priorities, sequencing, and public policy measures that would help address the current deep crisis and build a foundation for sustainable recovery.
The project, which we have named Cuba Transformation, is based on the idea that the Cuban economy is facing a complex situation, driven by both internal and external factors: a faulty economic model, ongoing policy mistakes, changes in the global political landscape, and increasing U.S. sanctions. Its most obvious signs include a decline in production, rising inflation, currency devaluation, worsening public services, reduced household purchasing power, decaying infrastructure, and growing social vulnerability. Therefore, any transformation plan must prioritize stopping the economic and social decline, protecting the most vulnerable groups, and establishing basic stability.
Similarly, although we have learned—like everyone else—about the economic measures recently announced by the Cuban government, the proposal we are developing does not constitute a specific assessment of those decisions nor is it directly based on them. Our work follows its own methodology centered on identifying priorities, sequencing reforms, and ensuring coherence between policy goals and instruments. We believe that a successful process of economic transformation requires an orderly sequence of changes that can lead to a social market economy, grounded in a democratic rule-of-law state, capable of balancing economic growth, social inclusion, protection of citizens’ rights, and institutional strengthening.
The work outlines three main phases of economic transformation. The first involves stabilization and emergency measures; the second covers productive and institutional recovery; and the third focuses on developing a medium- and long-term growth strategy. Currently, the project emphasizes the first phase, due to the urgent need to correct macroeconomic imbalances, restore the core functions of the economic system, and address the most immediate issues impacting the population.
The proposal aims to provide technical arguments that foster spaces for dialogue, understanding, and negotiation about Cuba’s economic future and to build consensus around key aspects of economic policy. It does not intend to offer a final or absolute solution to the country’s problems. Instead, it is a professional contribution focused on identifying feasible measures and minimizing social costs in pursuit of responsible solutions.
The project was conceived and is being developed with contributions from Cuban economists with diverse academic backgrounds and professional experiences in Cuba. The ideas, proposals, and criteria resulting from this work are the responsibility of their authors. The project benefits from valuable institutional support that creates spaces for work, discussion, and dissemination, but this support does not replace the intellectual independence or professional responsibility of those directly involved in developing the proposals.
Our goal is to contribute well-founded ideas that are open to public debate and useful for considering viable options for the country. We do not believe there is a single answer or that this group covers all necessary perspectives. Instead, we hope this work encourages a broader, more diverse, and responsible discussion about Cuba’s economic future.
