Donald Trump: Between a catastrophe and a miracle

About 90 days before the election, and even less if you consider states where early voting is allowed, President Donald Trump’s road to victory looks very complicated.

If pundits are still cautious about their predictions it is because important events that lead up to the election have yet to occur. These include the naming of a vice presidential running mate for the Democratic candidate, both parties’ conventions, and the debates between the candidates. There’s also the ghost of 2016, which showed polls favoring Hillary Clinton until her eventual loss.

However, this time around the numbers appear stronger than they were four years ago. At this point in 2016, the polls showed a lead of only three points for the Democratic candidate, while today, according to Real Clear Politics, which averages all polls, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 7.4 points on a national scale, and by 5.5 percent in states considered decisive, known as battleground states.

Although the vociferous tone of his supporters may give the impression that support for Trump dominates the American political scene, in reality the president has not been able to overcome his stay in the minority. That is what the polls have reflected since 2016, when they were not far from reality as some believe, and carefully scrutinized, continue to be an indispensable instrument used to analyze what happens in this type of process.

In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by 2,868,686 votes. But thanks to the Electoral College was able to win the election with less than a one percent difference in the determining states that were key. If the trend seen today continues, those margins will be more difficult to overcome as election day nears.

Donald Trump’s disapproval rating is at 55.9 percent of the population, one of the highest of any president in office before a reelection. And although he has managed to maintain the support of a large number of Republicans, nothing indicates that that support has increased. In fact, there are signs of deterioration in sectors essential to the president, such as non-college-educated white men, the group of voters who were decisive in his 2016 victory. On the other hand, surprises in this sense are unlikely, since the number of undecided voters has also decreased, another factor that influenced the final results of 2016.

A low voter turnout is critical for the mass of loyal Trump voters to comprise a winning margin. It’s the reason for Trump’s strong opposition to voting by mail and other measures that facilitate voter participation, especially when you take into consideration that the pandemic may keep many from physically going to the polls.

More importantly, we live in an exceptional moment that does not admit comparisons with the past. As a friend told me, no survey conducted before the pandemic has credibility under the current circumstances. Much less in the United States, where the impact has been brutal, with deaths that exceed those that occurred in many of the wars the country has faced in the recent past, and those infected continue to increase exponentially, largely as a result of Trump’s lousy management of the crisis. Polls demonstrate that barely 40 percent of the population supports the president’s actions in this regard.

It is not about blaming Trump for a misfortune that was impossible to avoid, but for his lack of sensitivity for victims and the lack of leadership to establish a national strategy capable of uniting the people around the discipline and solidarity necessary to help control the disease. In fact, what has changed is the fact that presidents usually receive great support when facing major threats — a fact often used by incumbents to help them win elections. Trump’s problem is that he has not been capable of getting his troops ready for combat. 

Some even say that this will be the first election in a long time where the economy will not be decisive. Such a statement is questionable, since the effects of the pandemic are closely related to its implications for the economic situation of people. The economy continues to be a fundamental concern for voters, and Trump, who considered the economy his strongest point ahead of the elections, now finds himself in a terrible situation. GDP has fallen 12 percent in the last quarter, and its annualized rate is calculated at the record level of 32.9 percent. And the number of unemployed persons in the country is somewhere between 15 million and 30 million people.

Trump expected an early reopening of the economy would produce a certain job explosion that, even when relative, would project the image of his administrative genius. This explains the debauchery for states to act in this manner, which included even armed fanatics helping to impose it. However the pandemic’s tremendous rebound disrupted these plans and it now appears that there won’t be enough time for a recovery before the November election.

All this is occurring in a society convulsed by inequality, racism, xenophobia, police violence, and where the president has helped to exacerbate these conflicts instead of trying to placate them. The intervention of federal troops in some of these conflicts, under the premise of imposing law and order, which Trump assumed would receive the support of certain sectors of society as it has indeed occurred, has also caused a fairly general rejection, especially because the objective of imposing tranquility has not been achieved. Returning to the polls, 57 percent of whites reject this decision, as well as 83 percent of Latinos, and 92 percent of the Black population.

Trump’s logic has always been to divide and conquer, even encouraging revolts against local governments led by Democrats, but the result has been to strengthen and unify Democrats.

Trump’s logic has always been to divide and conquer, even encouraging revolts against local governments led by Democrats, but the result has been to strengthen and unify Democrats. This contrasts with the state of the Trump campaign where it has been necessary to replace its main executives, and federal investigations have highlighted the mismanagement of funds involving the president’s own children. It is clear that Joe Biden is not the perfect candidate for the Democrats, but these elections are about Donald Trump and the opponent hardly matters. It is illustrative that Biden is leading by practically sitting at home, as Trump rants and calls for public events that are likely to infect his own constituents.

Some believe that, even if he loses, Donald Trump will have an important impact on the future of the Republican Party. However, while he now enjoys undeniable support, Trump cannot be said to be a natural leader of Republican conservatives: he is not a religious man who advocates respect for traditional values, or a legitimate defender of workers. He is not even convinced of the virtues of the system, whose rules he has tried to violate all his life.

He is also not a person known for his honesty, and nothing in his personal history transmits that he is a patriot.

His own personal characteristics do not contribute to sustaining support for the future when he becomes just an ordinary citizen. It didn’t take his niece’s book to know that we are in the presence of an unhealthy personality. He said it himself during a press conference: “No one loves me, it must be my personality.” 

The cult of Trump is the cult of power that made the Pharisee a prophet, there to protect the privileges of the American white middle class and impose their values on the rest of society. As this power weakens, Donald Trump will most likely be abandoned to his fate and nothing good awaits him when he ceases to be president, because he has many outstanding debts to pay and many enemies to claim them.

There’s already a certain distancing happening from a Republican establishment that never accepted him willingly and that has had to endure him with displeasure and with all his follies. According to press reports, contributions from major Republican donors have increasingly been directed at strengthening senatorial campaigns which are also being threatened by the Democratic advance. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, until now a firm Trump ally, has instructed Republican candidates to move away from the president if they consider it necessary. McConnell was also part of the group that rejected Trump’s call for postponing the elections. Even Senator Marco Rubio, who evolved from enemy to one of Trump’s subjects, arrogantly disagreed with the president in this regard.

Conservative Republican politicians are aware that after polarizing the country to levels that some compare to the Civil War era, and facing the emergence of a left-wing movement that has conditioned the Democrats’ agenda, a resounding defeat in the upcoming elections could have relevant consequences for the balance of forces that govern the country. For this reason, a stampede by Republicans is not expected, but many are already designing what the post-Trump era will look like. 

It is true that this analysis of the variables that affect the elections in the U.S. can be disrupted by a miracle, even one provoked by a powerful man who might determine a Trump victory come November. But in that case, there’s little to do. Foreshadowing miracles is not my job.