Democrats are delusional if they plan on winning Florida in 2022 with more of the same
Democrats in Florida are bombarding email lists asking for political campaign contributions to be used in several high profile elections in 2022. At stake is the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat. Other than collecting millions of dollars, I ask myself what are their plans for victory? How do they intend to beat a governor, Ron DeSantis, who has amassed more than $50 million already and has the backing of many of Trump’s Florida whackos? I also question how they plan to out-duel our own home-grown chameleon, Sen. Marco Rubio, for that all important Senate seat the Dems desperately need if they intend to keep the Senate leadership?
After the drubbing they took at the polls in November 2020, Democrats need a Moses to lead them out of this desert they are in. They see 2022 as a chance to unseat Rubio and DeSantis, and win back flippable seats in Congress and the Florida Legislature. In January of this year they chose Manny Diaz, 66, as their new chairman, picking the former two-term Miami mayor to lead a wounded party in the nation’s biggest political battleground.
My reaction felt like a pricked balloon losing air quickly. I shrugged my shoulders and stated to someone with me: “Good luck!”
Numbers don’t favor the ‘Dems’
When Barak Obama won Florida in 2012, there were 558,272 more Democrats registered than Republicans in this southernmost state. By 2020, when Donald Trump clobbered Joe Biden in Florida, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 97,215. One year later, as of September 30, 2021, that advantage had shrunk to a measly lead of 12,699 Democrats registered.
Let’s look at it another way. During the aforementioned period of time, registered Republicans in the state grew by a staggering 843,791 voters. Democrats grew from 2012 to 2021 by 298,218 voters. It is therefore not surprising that Florida, the third most populous state in the union, has only one Democrat who’s won a statewide race since Obama in 2012 — Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who intends to run for governor in 2022.
There’s one more telling fact. The fastest growing political party in Florida is neither Republican nor Democrat but what is known as No Party Affiliated (NPA) voters who saw their numbers swell by 845,813 new registrants from 2012 to the present.
In Florida, now almost equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, the NPAs decide elections. And those NPAs (or independents, or whatever else you want to call them) don’t necessarily adhere to the tired old talking points spewed by both Republicans and Democrats. Feeling unhappy with both major parties the NPAs are looking for reasonable solutions to real everyday problems.
And the point is?
Under present circumstances Democrats in Florida have little chance of winning anything next year. The only possible exception are congressional seats — like Districts 25 and 26 in Miami — and even that is doubtful and depends on the redistricting process under the command of Republicans in Tallahassee.
If all goes as it usually does, Democrats will probably elect Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor, turned independent when he ran (and lost) to Marco Rubio in 2010, and later to become a Democrat who ran for congress in an open seat in the Tampa Bay area, a race he won. But Crist reminds me of Terry McAuliffe, a Clinton crony who just recently lost the governor’s race in Virginia. McAuliffe, not as slippery in choosing parties as Crist, was a retread Democrat who had been governor of Virginia.
If there’s a chance, I see the Rubio race as a possible pick up for Democrats, and only because Congresswoman Val Demings is a powerhouse that should give Little Marco a run for his money. But the numbers, as I have shown, are stacked against her. Unless, of course, she has the guts to step out of that safe box most Democrats are enclosed in and start taking chances by proposing new, bold ideas that address real problems we face.
In the race for governor, Democrats should put Crist to pasture and decide on new faces — and there’s at least two, both women: Annette Taddeo, a Colombian American state senator, and the aforementioned Nikki Fried. Crist, I am convinced, is a sure loser. So why not take a chance on a new face that might help spark the party’s rejuvenation?
Democrats must realize that they have to start developing new, young leaders to run in all seats available in the coming years. Persons with new and progressive ideas that will strike a match of interest in voters. The party must look beyond preserving what already has passed, and start looking forward to bigger and better things. Even the naming of Manny Diaz as head of the party might help in the raising of campaign funds, but the former Miami mayor is also a name associated with the past… And, by the way, money, which Diaz is very good at amassing, is the mother’s milk of politics and therefore necessary. But hard work is too. Based on the numbers I’ve shown you, Republicans seem to be kicking ass in that department.
Finally, Democrats must not run on the defensive. Take offense and inspire voters with new and better ideas. They must be ready to answer all accusations thrown at them by a party (Republicans) that has mastered the art of alternative facts — in other words, the truth is only that which favors them and in many cases is approved by Donald Trump.
One last thought, and it’s the issue of Cuba… which will come up. Take it on and turn it on its head. A bit like what Obama did when he went against the grain in Florida when it came to Cuba — and won! If they run with fear of that issue, then I guarantee monumental losses for most Democrats in Florida in 2022.
