‘Before we can change Washington, we first need to change Miami’

[Speech given by Progreso Weekly editor on Saturday in Maryland, where Cubans from around the U.S. were meeting and discussing Cuba and U.S. relations.]

President Obama changed the playbook on how to win elections in this country. His second electoral victory campaign in 2012, for example, is being studied, and books will be written about it in years to come. Their methods were so fine-tuned and their numbers so precise that they knew exactly where they needed to win and how to go about it.

Interestingly, in Florida, Rick Scott used some of the Obama playbook to win a second term as governor. This in spite of the fact that for almost four years Scott was considered the most disliked governor in the nation and lacked the Obama charisma. Of course, money had something to do with his victories.

And since I have mentioned the money factor, let me state that having tons of money helps you even more when turnout in elections is low. Availability of money allows you to control and stimulate who you want voting. And without a doubt the trick is to turn out YOUR voters.

I also understand that it’s easier said than done.

Let’s start by looking at Palm Beach County in South Florida, as an example. Charlie Crist was supposed to win Palm Beach. He did so with almost 59% of the vote. But the Crist camp had hoped of winning there by more than 100,000 votes. That was a goal. They beat Scott by only 86,000 votes.

Remember, Scott won the state by a hair over 1 percent, or 64,145 votes. So those 14,000 less votes for Crist in Palm Beach were important.

How did they do this? By focusing in on, and stimulating, THEIR base… In other words, working where they knew they had the advantage.

Let me explain by way of numbers:

In the 194 Palm Beach precincts where Democrats make up 50 percent or more of the voters, turnout was 48.4%. In the 56 county precincts where Republicans make up 50 percent or higher of voters, turnout was 63.8%. This was NOT a coincidence. That’s where the money factor can and does play a part. Scott’s camp goosed turnout in the Republican precincts.

Let me say this differently. Scott’s camp realized that precinct WORK stimulates voter turnout. So if they were going to urge people to vote they would only concentrate on precincts they knew they could win.

One other important factor in this race: Charlie Crist expected and needed to win south Florida’s Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. He did in all three, which are considered the most important and largest Democratic counties. But while turnout in the state was 50.5%, in Palm Beach, it was 49.2%; in Broward it was 44.5%; and in Miami-Dade it was 40.7% – all three below the state average.

At the same time, while these counties performed poorly, republican counties, although many much smaller than the ones mentioned, had turnouts higher than the state average of 50 percent. In Sarasota, St. John’s and Sumter, to give three examples, turnout was 58.9%, 54.5% and 67.4%, respectively – all three republican counties.

By now you’re asking: Why are these numbers important for us?

For starters, because I can show you that if we had managed to turnout voters in South Florida counties at the state rate of 50.5%, Charlie Crist would be governor today.

The aforementioned numbers also show us that when you apply the Get Out The Vote formulas to numbers that have been presented by FIU professor and investigator Guillermo Grenier, you see a potential electoral path that can be taken to begin the work of changing U.S. policy towards Cuba.

I say this with great optimism because politics is a game of numbers – votes, money, people… And except for the money, the numbers are on our side.

But let me also caution you. The results we seek take time. And money. And more time. And more money…

And although we live in a world where we seek instant results. In our case there are NO instant solutions.

I also must warn: if we don’t start now – the other side already has. You saw it in the November Florida elections.

So, what do we do?

Let’s start by inverting the pyramid. Stress local, and work our way up. We’ve always looked top-down and oftentimes forgotten the grass–roots and grass–tops, where everything happens.

I’ve had conversations with some of you present today. Persons convinced that ‘as goes the presidency’, so goes Cuba policy. Probably true. But let’s be honest, we have very little if ANY influence ‘as how go presidential decisions’ in this country. That is why the grass roots are so important.

We have NEVER really worked the grass roots. Something the other side has done a masterful job with – full time, since at least 1980.

Notice, for example, and I’m not going to call them democrats or republicans. Let me refer to them as the Diaz-Balarts’ and Ros-Lehtinens’ and Menendezes’ of this world. They always have a successor to take over a spot that has been vacated. Their strategy is not about winning one election. Their plan is to continue winning more and more elections and keeping the ones they’ve got by always having the bullpen ready with new talent.

It is something we’ve never done. And it is time we did.

It is also time we realized that not only are elected officials important to us; persons who serve under these politicians – as assistants, press staff, etc. – are also as important as the politicians themselves. Sometimes these assistants are more important – they are often the ones influencing the politician’s decisions…

Think of, for example, when Charlie Crist said he would travel to Cuba before the elections. Who do you think changed his mind?

This is not the first time and it won’t be the last time I say what I am about to. The purpose of this panel is a discussion of how to bring about change in U.S. policy towards Cuba. And I have always said that before we can change Washington, we first need to change Miami.

Changes are happening in spite of us. Again I refer to Grenier’s numbers. But it is important that we influence that change. If not generations to come will view Cuba as a problem instead of an opportunity.

Here are some of my suggestions for change:

1. Establish a concerted effort working together with many of the other ethnic communities that make up Miami to establish a professional voter registration and Get Out The Vote effort that is continuous, effective and ongoing.
2. Create an academy that: (a) Continuously train (especially young) members of our community in how to set up these voter projects; (b) helps recruit and train (especially young) persons who may be interested in becoming political candidates in the future; and (c) trains in how to speak to the media and messaging.
3. Part of this candidate training should be geared towards discussion of issues that affect our community: the economy, jobs, health care, immigration, Cuba policy and how it affects (negatively) our community, police relations, corruption and how to attack it, etc.
4. Create a quarterly discussion, an open community forum, where we invite members of the community, not just Cuban, to discuss needs that we face as a community; ideas that we may have that may be beneficial to the community; etc.

It is important to look at these project(s) as beneficial to Miami. This should NOT be viewed as a Cuba project. The fact that the issue of Cuba is so important to Miami makes Cuba an important part of a much larger project – but it is not the central theme. The idea is to incorporate the concept of a normal relationship with Cuba as important to the future of Miami.

This should not be viewed or conceived as an US against THEM project: It is simply a group of concerned South Florida residents working to make the place where we live a better place.

The day we accomplish some of these things I have just mentioned is the day we will start to make a difference in how Washington looks at us. Until that day, the only truly organized groups in South Florida are mostly those being led by people with names I mentioned earlier.

Finally, and it is something I’ve learned about American politics that I never fail to mention in all presentations like these, to make these things a reality, there is need for money. Real money. Millions of dollars over a period of years…

And I understand that the other side has more money than we do, but there are some among us, and others whom we know, who have deep pockets. And if we truly want to start solving problems, as the saying goes: ‘We’ve got to put our money where our mouth is…’

Thank you.