Biden will win in November
By the time you read this there will be less than 20 days left until Election Day. The stress and tension of the past almost four years will be heightened by what I believe will be a big Donald Trump loss brought on by millions of voters who are tired of seeing a president who cares so little, if at all, for the American people. What will happen after Nov. 3, I am still not sure. An unhinged and reckless Donald Trump is capable of almost anything. And a Trump that must accept his loss seems terrifying when I allow my mind to wander. Read this week’s Rafael Gonzalez Morales’ account of what he foresees as possible scenarios beginning on the final day of the election. They are realistic based on everything we know. And yet it’s hard to believe.
I’ve been telling you for months that I foresee a Biden win. I believe it was sealed the night of the first (and might be only) presidential debate. That was followed by a bizarre admission from the White House that Trump and the First Lady had Covid-19, as well as a large number of his aides and even some U.S. senators. It turns out all might have been infected during a Trump spreader-event honoring Amy Coney Barrett, his nominee to replace Ruth Bader Ginsberg on the Supreme Court, where there was no adherence to physical distancing, few masks worn, and kisses and hugs commonplace.
Let us repeat our regular exercise of the past nine months, for the final time, and take a peek at the numbers as revealed by two websites that don’t do polling, but instead take an average of legitimate polls and predict outcomes based on those averages. I use Real Clear Politics (RCP) and Five Thirty-Eight (538) to reach my conclusions. RCP leans more Republican. And 538 tends more towards the Democrats. We can start as we’ve done before. That means 233 Electoral College votes for Biden based on states where he is expected to win no matter the turnout. President Trump begins with 204 votes, which by the way, may be less than those based on results in states he was expected to win, but where he seems to be doing much worse this time around. But I will leave him with the 204.
One final look at the numbers
So as we did back in August, when I had Biden ending with 308 Electoral College votes, let’s take a look at the key states that will decide this election. And remember, 270 wins the election for president. Again, what I will be doing this time around, which I did not do in my previous predictions, is to take an average of the averages provided by RCP and 538. It allows me a fairer, and I believe clearer view of possible results on that first Tuesday in November.
Here we go:
Arizona: The only two times this state has voted Democratic for president was Clinton in 1996, and before that in 1948. In August, Biden had a 2 percent lead over Trump. This time around and taking into account both RCP and 538, Biden’s lead has grown by 3.25 percent. In 2016, Trump won the state by 3.5 percent in 2016. Trump must be sweating this one out.
Wisconsin: This is one of the states where Trump beat Hillary by a whisker in 2016. Well, 2020 won’t be so kind to the president. I have Biden leading here by 7.1 percentage points, which is 2 percent better than I had Biden leading in August.
Michigan: Trump won Michigan by 0.3 percent in 2016, this year he is losing the state by almost 7.5 percent. Expect the 16 electoral votes from this state to go to Biden.
Pennsylvania: Of the battleground states, I find this one and Florida the most interesting going forward these last two weeks. Notice how much time Trump and Pence spend in both these places. If there is any chance for Trump to win he will have to be victorious here. The bad news for Trump, Biden leads in the state where he was born by a little more than 7 percent.
North Carolina: This southern state should be a slam dunk for Trump. And yet, Biden leads here by at least 3.2 percent. In August, Trump led here by 0.6 percent. The trend does not favor the president.
Florida: If Trump does not win here, in my opinion, he has zero chance of winning this election. As of this moment, Biden leads in the largest battleground state by 3.5 percent. Most speak of the Hispanic vote (which includes a large number of Cubans) as key in this state. I see the Biden lead more as a result of elderly (65+) voters, which Florida has a huge number of, and where Biden leads among this group by more than 20 percent in recent polls conducted by CNN and NBC News/Wall Street Journal. In 2016, older voters went with Trump by a 53 percent to 45 percent margin. This is terrible news for the president.
One last thought, and it shows how badly Trump seems to be doing. Ohio, another state that Trump must win, is currently 50-50 between Trump and Biden. The president beat Hillary here in 2016 by 8.1 percentage points.
So as of today, I’m calling for Biden wins in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. In other words, I’ve added Arizona to the Biden column this time around, and kept Florida on the Biden side, which might have surprised some last time. As for Ohio, let’s keep it with Trump, but don’t be surprised if the president loses here too.
If you add them up, that’s 86 Electoral College votes added to the 233 Biden started with bringing his total of winning votes to 319 Electoral College votes making Joe Biden the 46th president of the United States.
Two last thoughts: one, do not be surprised if the margin of victory is larger. I think this will be a big win for Biden, and we will probably know the winner by late Tuesday night (Nov. 3), or early the next morning; and two, there’s only one way for this to become reality, that’s if you VOTE.
Finally, it looks like we may get a record number of people voting in 2020, which is welcome news. As for early voting, which has started in many states around the country, to date there has been record turnout. As Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, who administers the United States Elections Project, told Reuters: “We’ve never seen this many people voting so far ahead of an election.”
One last thought, at this point Biden’s lead seems so unsurmountable that even if we take both Florida (29 votes) and Pennsylvania (20 votes) from him, he’d still finish with exactly 270 Electoral College votes and a victory.
Again: If you haven’t yet, VOTE!
