Anyone but Harris, probably hopes Rove

Al’s Loupe

By Alvaro F. Fernandez

If I was Betty Castor I would be praying and asking for heavenly help to assure that Rep. Katherine Harris jumps into the Florida Senate race to decide who will replace retiring Democratic Sen. Bob Graham.

By the end of 2004, this race, which has drawn numerous candidates running for their respective party’s nomination, should be the most interesting contest in what may turn out to be a banner year in Florida politics. And that’s a lot to say when you consider that this state brought us the Bush-Gore debacle of 2000. This race may also turn out to decide who will become the next president of the United States in November of this year.

Harris has yet to announce, but some say she has decided to run and will make it public sometime in the very near future. Then again, others flatly state she will not run. Those who say she won’t, cite the White House, and also the fact that as Harris herself told Ken Thomas of the Associated Press, “That’s a difficult decision to choose to leave something that seems to fit well,” referring to her seat in congress. 

After her election to the House in 2002, she was immediately tapped by the Republican leadership to serve as assistant majority whip; something rare for a freshman, but no doubt a reward for her performance in assuring a W. Bush victory in Florida in the faulty presidential race of 2000 when she was Secretary of State.

The fact is that polls currently show Harris leads the field of Republican contenders by double digit numbers. And I am sure there are many Republicans – including presidential brother and Governor of Florida Jeb – who are now kicking themselves because the senatorial primary in August is a winner-take-all contest which immediately favors Harris. In other words, there is no need for a runoff (or a majority). This was a carefully devised plan pulled off by Republican legislators in Floridabefore the 2002 gubernatorial election in their plot to keep Janet Reno out of the governor’s mansion. It’s also a plan that may be going awry.

But whether she jumps in or not is yet to be seen. Only Ms. Harris knows for sure. Whatever her decision, the Karl Roves in the White House, led by the campaign guru Rove himself, are probably driving the lady with the false eyelashes crazy trying to convince her to stay out of any statewide political race in Florida.

They know Harris is a polarizing figure – especially in Florida. And I assure you the way they see this playing out if she jumps in, is a probable victory in August only to turn loser in November. Their worries, though, are not so much the fact that they would lose a seat in the Senate they do not have, but that she may help drag down George W in the general election. Because I live convinced that whoever of the presidentials wins Floridain ’04, will gain the presidency.

So Castor, the former Floridacommissioner of education, state university president and state senator, is probably licking her chops dreaming of the possibility. Of course, although she may be the Democratic Party frontrunner as of now, and with a wide lead, she cannot ignore her opponents who include Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and U.S. Rep. Peter Deutch, who just landed an important endorsement in the form of Congressman Alcee Hastings, from Broward and Palm BeachCounties. Important for several reasons, Hastings’ name was one that had been bandied about as a possible candidate, and also because as an African American he might help to deliver some of the much needed Black votes in the state.  

I have a feeling, though, that Castor would love to go head to head with Harris. This two-woman battle seems to favor her. Sure, Harris would come with much more political cash, which may be Castor’s biggest weakness so far; including in the Democratic Party primary. But Castor also has statewide name recognition (although she served more than a decade ago) and is considered a middle of the road candidate that seems to work well in statewide Florida elections. Check out Bob Graham, Lawton Chiles and Bill Nelson if you doubt this.

As I already mentioned, Harris will be a polarizing figure come August and November if she decides to jump in. And people like Rove know that she will have very strong support among die-hard republicans in the state. But Florida elections are won by garnering a majority of undecided and independent voters, and Katherine ‘Long Lashes’ will not do well here against a moderate like Castor. Also, and even scarier for presidential buddy Rove, Harris may incite hard core democrats to come out in droves just to castigate her for her sins of 2000. And that would be a travesty… for George W. Bush.

So I believe the next few days will tell us if Katherine Harris, the lady who helped put Florida on the map for strange and oftentimes questionable politics when she helped sway the presidential election of 2000, is running – or not – for the Graham Senate seat. Whatever her decision, rest assured that hard core negotiating is going on behind the scenes. Because if she decides not to run, bet your lunch money that she will end up with the chairmanship in some congressional committee or sub committee, or who knows, maybe even a cabinet seat if W earns the White House this time in a fair election. 

Actually, when one thinks about it, the cards are stacked in her favor. Because there is no doubt that the Bush clan owes her quite a bit.