Miami-Dade will have its first woman mayor in November

Hillary Clinton clobbered Donald Trump in Miami-Dade County in 2016. She received 624,146 votes to Trump’s 333,999. So next time you hear a loud-mouthed Cuban from Miami who insists that Miami-Dade is Republican, tell him or her it’s not so… and remind them that Joe Biden will also wipe out Trump in South Florida come November. 

I bring up the 2016 presidential race because I want to take a look at the race for mayor of Miami-Dade. They have things in common. This one’s important and will help demonstrate that the power of the extreme-right-Cuban vote in Miami is dwindling. Thankfully.

Miami-Dade has not had a mayor who is not of Cuban origin since 1995. Daniella Levine Cava (DLC) will be the first in over a quarter century. And I shall use the numbers to make my case.

Last week’s first place winner was Esteban Bovo. May he enjoy his primary victory (less than one-half of one percent separated Bovo and Levine Cava) for a few months. Bovo is a man few around the county still know. He is propelled by two issues — none based on a record of accomplishment. He marches to the tune of Trump’s drums, and also the Cuba issue. Every Republican voter who voted based on those issues went out for him this past August 18. They will do so again. 

Bovo’s problem is that it is now a two-person race, and in November many more Democrats than Republicans will be voting just for the mere fact that there are a whole bunch more of them. As of Aug. 3, there were 623,336 Democrats registered in Miami-Dade, against 399,451 Republicans. One last important factor are the No-Party-Affiliated (NPA) voters. Neither Democrat nor Republican, there are 465,290 NPAs registered in the Miami area. A greater number than those registered as Republican. 

There are also more women registered to vote than men. According to the Pew Research, “In 2016, 63 percent of women who were eligible to vote said they cast ballots in the presidential election, compared with 59 percent of men. That 4 percentage point gender gap is similar to the 4-point gaps in 2012 and 2008 as well as the 3-point gaps in 2004, 2000 and 1996.” In other words, during presidential elections women vote at a higher rate than men. When Levine Cava wins, she will be the first woman ever elected mayor of Miami-Dade County. 

As for the numbers here in Miami-Dade: In one simple and quick study I decided to go with a 60 percent turnout of voters. I divided the NPAs equally between the two candidates. The results had Levine Cava winning by a huge 16 percent margin of 58 percent to 42 percent for Bovo. Which basically nears the margin Clinton beat Trump by in 2016 — in that election Clinton garnered more than 60 percent of the county votes.

Looking closely at the August 18 primary election, I extrapolated numbers from those results. In this election there were other candidates involved — including two other women, both Black, who probably took votes from Levine Cava. I doubled the results based on the fact that more than 28 percent of voters turned out for the primary. (This does not bode well for Bovo. In spite of the pandemic, the turnout was high compared to previous elections which are normally at about 20 percent in Miami-Dade. So expect a large turnout in November, exactly what the Republicans don’t want.)

I doubled the number of votes received by DLC (which came out to 240,178) and Steven Bovo (244,270). I then again doubled the votes received by third place finisher Alex Penelas, a Democrat, and gave Daniella 60 percent of those votes, 40 percent to Bovo. The fourth place finisher was a former mayor of Miami, Xavier Suarez, a registered Independent. I gave 60 percent of the Suarez votes to Bovo. Finally there were the two Black women who ran — Monique Nicole Barley and Ludmilla Domond — with a much lesser number of votes, but which I gave 70 percent of their total to DLC.

After adding those numbers, I had DLC with 433,310 votes compared to Bovo’s 401,179 votes, DLC winning 52 percent to Bovo’s 48 percent. 

My calculations, I understand, are not scientific. They are calculations by someone who has been following Miami politics for longer than he’d like to be reminded of. But I do believe, strongly, that DLC’s margin of victory will be between that low of 52 percent to a high of almost 60 percent.

And in Daniella, we have a woman who for almost 40 years has been working with the community, especially persons and families most in need of help. Through her Human Services Coalition, an organization she created now called Catalyst Miami, her mission, their mission, is “to identify and collectively solve issues adversely affecting low-wealth communities throughout Miami-Dade County.” Miami is one of the poorest areas in the country. It is also one of the richest. There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” Daniella will work to strengthen our weakest links. 

As for those worried that red-baiting will help propel Bovo to victory… it will surely be ramped up for the next two months. But except for the fools who live here and still see Fidel and Che Guevara hiding behind every bush in Miami, it won’t work. 

I’m ready to wager. DLC wins in November. Miami-Dade will have its first woman mayor.