If you vote, Trump loses

Thursday, when this column is published, will be exactly 75 days before Election Day. Will the four-year nightmare end, or will it be the beginning of a new phase of what Americans often cite as their exceptionalism? Because under Trump, the U.S. has proven to be exceptional — for all the wrong reasons.

As we’ve done in the recent past, and as I plan to continue doing until November 3, let’s look at what potential voters are thinking before that fateful day. And allow me to emphasize that it will be voters who decide our fortunes going forward, not Trump and his chicanery (that should play a role), or Biden’s message that everyone has something to gripe about. This is not an ordinary presidential election year. There is good reason for politicians of all stripes, and other community leaders, suddenly coming together to rid the country of what so many consider a serious cancer that plagues our “way of life.”

In the end, I continue to emphasize that you must VOTE. The decision, like in 2016,  is in our hands. I say this because I look at the national polls which demonstrate that Americans are not happy under a Trump lack of leadership. But in 2016, almost 60 percent of many of those same people failed to vote. 

Your vote, every single vote, does count. It was presented succinctly by former first lady Michelle Obama during her Democratic National Convention speech this week. She explained that studies show that if only two more voters had voted for Hillary in each precinct in several battleground states like Michigan, Trump would be at Trump Tower today probably gorging himself with Big Mac’s as just another spoiled and corrupt, rich idiot. Think about that… two votes per precinct. It’s why I adhere to the philosophy of not only voting myself, but insisting that I urge at least five others to vote in each and every election. 

Let’s take a look the numbers

These are based on polls conducted before either one of the political conventions. We may do the same exercise after the conventions to compare if these first-ever virtual gatherings this year helped one group more than the other.

As we did back in May, Joe Biden starts with 233 Electoral College votes. Remember that 270 wins the presidency. Trump begins this adventure with 204 votes, although if you check the states that he is supposed to win… there’s Georgia, Iowa, and even (believe it or not) Texas where he has not been polling well. But let’s give him those states anyway. 

So let us check some of the places that will decide this election, based on the current picture, and considering the 75 days left, especially under a Trump administration, where almost anything can happen. Here’s what the polls are telling us:

• Arizona: Usually a red (or Republican) state, Biden leads by 2.0 percentage points — basically a statistical tie. Back in May Biden led here by 9 percent.
• Wisconsin: Biden leads by a little more than 5 percent. That is double what he was leading Trump by in May. Not good news for Trump in a state he carried in 2016.
• Michigan: Another 2016 Trump state where Biden leads by 7.8 percent. Almost the same number by which he led in May. A good sign for Biden.
• Pennsylvania: Here Biden leads by 6 percent (another Trump state in 2016). Also about the same figure as we reported in May. Good news for Biden in the state where he was born.
• North Carolina: Trump is ahead here by 0.6 percent. Also a virtual tie. Trump has grown his lead here, but by 0.3 percent.
• Florida: The biggest of all the battlegrounds, and where Trump won in 2016, Biden currently leads by 5 percent. Compared to May when he was at 3.2 percent, Biden’s lead has grown in this important state.

Let’s do the math, and speculate. OK, Arizona goes to Trump, that’s 11 votes. Remember that we’re playing this game with Electoral College votes. Wisconsin with 10 votes goes to Biden, and he also takes Michigan with 16 votes. Pennsylvania goes to native son Biden (20 votes). North Carolina stays in the Trump column (15 votes). And finally my surprise pick Florida, where many may not agree with me, but I’m giving it to Biden, which means 29 more votes.

Today Biden garners 308 Electoral College votes and the presidency. Trump ends up with 230.

Back in May I had Biden with 290 votes. The lead has grown by 18. No wonder Trump wants to shut down the U.S. Postal Service, where mail-in voting is expected to be a preferred way of voting this year for fear of standing in lines and facing Covid-19 possibilities.