2018: A year of important political races in Florida
The November midterm elections will serve, for one, to gauge Trump’s possibilities for reelection in 2020. It will also determine if the Congress remains a Republican stronghold for the next two years. And Florida, especially two key south Florida congressional races, is considered a potential ground zero in 2018.
First, we have the Senate race which will most likely pair outgoing Republican governor Rick Scott, a Trump friend and apologist, against incumbent democratic senator Bill Nelson. This should be an interesting and nasty race and may help decide if the Democrats wrest the Senate from the Republicans.
There’s also the race to name the state’s next governor — which will be key for Florida going forward, especially when you consider a very slow swing back to blue in the state’s legislative arena.
We’re also looking forward to Congressman Carlos Curbelo’s race in the 26th congressional district. The district happens to be the country’s largest Democratic leaning district currently held by a Republican. In the 2016 presidential election the district voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton. And yet, Curbelo, a Republican who tries to come off as a moderate, has won there since defeating Joe Garcia in 2014. Curbelo claims not to agree with President Trump, but has voted for the president’s and the Republican agenda at an almost perfect pace. There’s also the matter of his vote against the Affordable Care Act — or Obamacare — in a district where there are almost 100,000 persons who had healthcare because of it.
And last time I checked, the numbers in Curbelo’s district don’t favor him: There are 148,331 registered Democrats as opposed to 127,690 Republicans, and 125,920 registered voters not affiliated to either that go by the label No Party Affiliation (NPA). It will be a tough race for Curbelo to win — unless I am totally wrong, and President Trump’s popularity has risen in that district.
His opponent on the Democratic side is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has spent the past 14 years working in development at Florida International University. She moved to the U.S. from Ecuador when she was 14. Mucarsel-Powell is coming off a failed state Senate run in 2016. (Development at a university entails raising money, which she will need plenty of against Curbelo.)
In this race the independents, as the NPA is often referred to, is the fastest growing party composed of people from many races and ethnicities, but it is heavily populated by a growing number of recently arrived immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean — which should favor Mucarsel-Powell. The hard-right Cubans, who tend to favor Curbelo by a high percentage, are registered almost exclusively Republican, who have experienced a negative growth in this decade.
There’s also congressional District 27, where retiring Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has reigned since she was first elected in 1989. Ros-Lehtinen, a wily and popular politician, is no fool. Her claim is that after 30 years of back and forth to Washington, she’s tired and has had enough. She has also shown over the past 13 months that she is no fan of Donald Trump and disagrees with the Republican agenda when it comes to immigration and healthcare. But I also believe that Ros-Lehtinen has seen the numbers, and knows how unpopular the president is in certain areas of her district, and decided to call it quits while she’s still on top. Why add a loss to a stellar (according to her fans) career.
I am convinced that Ros-Lehtinen is aware that District 27 belongs to a Democrat starting in November 2018. The Hill listed this race among its seven primaries to watch in 2018, and the publication Florida Politics called the district “the most vulnerable House seat in Florida and the entire nation.” Add to this the fact that Hillary trounced Trump by 20 points in 2016, and that the numbers favor the Dems: 142,777 Democrats, 131,195 Republicans, and 118,903 NPAs. Again, and like the 26th, this is a district where the NPA’s would not favor Ros-Lehtinen, and the hard-right Cuban Republicans are slowing moving on — to a better life.
Who will replace Ros-Lehtinen?
There are many who want to. On the Democratic side there are just too many to name in this column, but the favorite as of right now is State Senator José Javier Rodriguez, who has made it a habit in the past of beating Republicans in Republican-leaning districts. His Senate district falls entirely in congressional District 27, which gives him an advantage and a built-in base.
But let’s take a quick look at the Republicans hoping to replace Ileana.
There are two names that pop up on the Republican side. One is Miami-Dade County Commissioner Bruno Barreiro who has been around for ever — first as a state legislator and for the past 20 years as a county commissioner. In my own very personal opinion the man is corrupt, and is dumb as a box of rocks. But he does manage to win elections…
Then there’s the other Republican name being bandied about, longtime TV personality Maria Elvira Salazar. Sources are telling me that the Republican Party will stand with Salazar over Bruno because they view her as a more moderate force in a district that they understand favors the Democrats. Anyway, Barreiro, who shuns public appearances and hates to debate, will have a hard time with Salazar, who is accustomed to the bright lights of television and has perfect command of both English and Spanish, and knows how to express herself in public.
This should be an interesting race to follow, because as I mentioned, Bruno may be the antithesis of what a political candidate should be, but he has managed to always win. His team is ruthless, believes little in the rules, and over the years has shown great dexterity when manipulating absentee ballots.
In the end, though, I have a feeling that whoever wins out on the Democratic side, will be the next member of Congress from District 27.
