What has happened to Cuban baseball?

 

HAVANA — The crisis in Cuban baseball resembles a Harry Potter novel. The difference is that the work has an unknown author, something that has become a mystery to solve.

The story began about 10 years ago, when we stopped winning tournaments, when a wave of player migrations began, when we found ourselves without answers and were overcome by circumstances.

Everything seems to indicate that, after the statements made by Alfonso Urquiola, the story is reaching its climax.

It seems that the salary raises, instituted as part of a policy of care and recognition, have widened the gap. The players continue to seek exile. “Everybody’s leaving,” a friend commented.

In my opinion, Cuban baseball has quality in terms of the individual player but not as a system of itself. What we saw in World Classic III was not a surrealist nightmare named Andrelton Simmons but a depressed, inefficient and obsolete system.

A game that triumphed in three Olympiads and multiple international games but that, after the 2006 Classic, could no longer defeat pitchers like Rob Cordemans or win decisive games. What happened?

Make yourself comfortable. The novel is beginning.

What happened at the base?

I hear announcers and journalists speak about problems at the base. To say that “there are problems at the base” is simply washing off the blood and not looking at the wound.

“There are problems with supplies and other technical issues, but those who say that there are problems at the base are wrong,” a youth league coach told me.

“You cannot hope to have quality baseball if you don’t have the mechanisms that are indispensable for consolidating the basics from an early age,” said Aliet Arzola of the newspaper Granma.

Inconveniences exist, but let’s look at the results. Some time ago, Cuba was champion in the Under-15 world tournament, and every day new talented players show up who are much sought — and better paid — by international teams.

Our talent is like a wild horse. Nobody can stop what’s unstoppable.

What happened to the National Series?

The Series is an expression of the problems that beset baseball. There is no order in the schedule of games if there isn’t a pre-established timetable. The existing schedule is out of phase when compared with the international calendar. The result is that the Series is recessed twice or three times every season so the players may participate in the Caribbean Series or some other tourney.

There are other simple questions (not economic issues, as many believe) that hurt the Series and emerge from the very essence of baseball in this country.

Why don’t the teams announce the opening pitchers days before the games? Why are the starting times of games ignored? Why are there no post-game press conferences? If two games are decisive for a classification, why are they not played simultaneously?

There are problems of organization, conception and even bending of rules by the very institution that enforces those rules — the Cuban Baseball Federation.

The Series was postponed, in comparison with similar international series, and was weakened as a league, even though the show goes on and the playoffs continue to be played before full stadia.

“Cuba would like to have a league like the Japanese Baseball League, but in reality can only have a winter league, like the rest of the Caribbean countries,” opined Bobby Salamanca Jr.

And between structures, proposals and strategies, the National Series faces criticism and contradiction. To many analysts in sites like Fangraphs or Baseball America, the Series doesn’t rise about AA.

The problem of statistics

Few commentators, coaches, statisticians or scorers know the main stats about baseball. For example, who was the first batter with the best On-Base Percentage before the Classic? Who has saved more runs for the defense? Who is the pitcher with the best starts in the past five years?

How do we know a player’s Wins Against Replacement when this is what defines his real value? I couldn’t tell you, because the official sources I consulted didn’t have the information.

So then, how can we select the nation’s best players if these parameters are not respected and valued?

Economic issues have had a bearing on this problem, because “all the provinces are in an awful position to collect data and statistics,” said Oscar Luis Portales, a statistician and scorer during three National Series at Augusto César Sandino Stadium.

The work of statisticians is underrated by baseball executives, among them the managers and other officials, which becomes evident among teams in the Series and in Team Cuba.

We live in an age of an absence of theory and an excess of empiricism.

Technical backwardness

Though they may seem the same, technical backwardness is not a statistical problem. Ignorance of the main statistics does not equal backwardness in technical knowledge.

Who has read Bill James’ “sabermetrics” theories? What technician knows the meaning of a “manufactured run” or a “quality turn”? What coach knows the six specialties of a bullpen, as defined in “The Bill James Handbook 2010: Baseball Info Solutions”?

Norberto González pitched the eighth inning against Holland in the third WBC when a setup man (SU) should have been in his place. I think about that and realize that Cuba didn’t have a setup reliever because it never specialized that function. In general, pitchers never get to specialize in any of the functions.

“The coaches have no access to interaction or to information or to current scientific-technical reference,” said Orlando Chinea, pitching coach since 1987, who has coached Duque Hernández, José Fernández and Lance McCullers Jr. and is recognized by magazines like Baseball America and Sports Illustrated.

The conception of the game

Our game is slow. It doesn’t matter how long it lasts, whether it’s 6 years or 7 hours. The strike zone is arbitrary. The opening pitcher closes a game and the closer opens another. We have no strategies, specialization, scouting methods.

We have established a routine that has harmed daily play and muted all sorts of tactics. At the third WBSC, Cuba was bushwhacked by basic plays and we all saw a disconcerted and resourceless team trying to deal with an ordinary base run or a hit-and-run.

The conception of our game has lost all dynamics. At international tourneys, we neither construct nor create runs. We have no seventh-inning reliever or setup pitcher.

“With so many players leaving the country, you can never have specialization in your staff; that’s impossible,” says Daniel de Malas.

The emigration of players

Economic, political, sports and social factors influence our game. When Bárbaro Garbey triumphed in 1984 with the Tigers and earned a ring, the world didn’t stop turning. He was only one. But in the past 15 years, many others have triumphed.

The Duque, Contreras, the five players who participated in the 2014 All-Star Game. Rookies of the Year like Fernández or Abreu and star prospects can be found everywhere. Cuban players leave their marks in Mexico, Japan, Korea, Spain. They are convinced that they can succeed abroad.

“Each player’s circumstances are different,” says Ben Badler, an analyst for Baseball America. “In general, they see opportunities available to them that they couldn’t have if they remain in Cuba.

“In particular, the elite players know that the money they can get from a Major League contract is a lot more than they could ever get if they stay home.

“The chance to transform their lives, their families’ lives, to play in the world’s best competitions and leave Cuba, those make up the reasons why ballplayers make the difficult decision to leave home.”

The phenomenon has grown.

“There’s a lot of talent in Cuba and the fact is that the players get only three trips a year and that’s not enough for everybody. There are many who are accomplished yet never get to travel,” says player Yadel Martí.

This circumstance has also forced the promotion of rookies who belong in the youth ranks, thus violating the stages of learning basic skills and hastening the player’s formation.

Management’s direction

Who replaced Fuentes after he won two Olympic Games, because he lost that infamous World Classic in 1997? Who withdrew those who withdrew him? Who removed Urquiola after he won at Winnipeg-99? Who is the Ghost of Canterville hiding in time? Who?

At some point, we lost course and direction. The Cuban Baseball Federation has been overwhelmed by context, time, and its stages and has not come up with a strategy that could stop the emigration of its players.

It needs to examine past and present history and find an answer to the mistakes made and the wrong courses taken. There’s no other way.