The longest campaign ever

By Weekly Archive On Mar 12, 2008

American
voters have spoken again. Just when the media decides it’s all over,
those who actually have a say in the matter speak up and say: "Not
so fast."

It
happened first with John McCain. After all the pundits wrote his
political obituary, the voters of New Hampshire decided, instead, to
keep him around for a while. He’s now the Republican nominee for
president.

It
happened on March 4 with Hillary Clinton. After the very same pundits
agreed that this was the end of the road for her, the voters of Rhode
Island, Ohio and Texas decided to give her one more chance. She’s now
back in the game and the primary carries on with a full head of
steam, at least until June, and perhaps all the way to the
convention.

Oh,
no, I hear people say. This is terrible. Simple math proves that
Clinton can never win the nomination. Since he now has more delegates
than she does, Barack Obama should simply be declared the winner.
And, besides, it’s getting ugly. Letting this primary battle drag on
will only help John McCain and hurt the Democratic Party. Right?

Nonsense!
An extended 2008 primary may be the best thing that has ever happened
to the Democrats. Take voter turnout, for example. A record number of
Democrats voted in the Iowa caucuses, and that’s been true of every
state since right up to Ohio and Texas. There’s tremendous excitement
about this primary. So let’s keep it going. The more states that
participate, and the more Democrats who vote, the greater and more
motivated the Democratic base will be in November.

As
for the math . . . It’s true that, even were she to sweep all the
remaining primaries, Clinton can never attain the 2,025 delegates
needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. But, truth be told,
neither can Obama. Yes, he’d get closer than she would, but he still
wouldn’t be there. And the rules only award the prize to the first
candidate to reach 2025 delegates, not to the one with more delegates
than his competitor.

Which
means that neither Clinton nor Obama will be able to wrap up the
nomination through the primary process alone. Ultimately, even after
eventual repeat primaries in Michigan and Florida, they’re both going
to depend on winning a majority of superdelegates — but only after
they’ve won as many delegates as possible through the primaries.

There
are 794 designated party leaders, or superdelegates (not counting
those from Michigan and Florida), with an automatic vote at the
convention. The tally changes daily, but according to Democratic
Convention Watch, 241 have already pledged their support to Senator
Clinton and 200 have signed on with Senator Obama. The rest are
uncommitted.

Only
when the primaries are over will those superdelegates make their
final decision. According to party rules, they are free to vote for
whomever they want. But they will definitely be influenced by several
factors, including: who won the most pledged delegates; who won the
popular vote; who won the most states; who won the biggest states;
and which candidate they believe will be the strongest Democrat
against John McCain.

That
last question — who’s more likely to beat McCain? — is, of course,
the most important one. And there’s only one way to find out: Watch
how they perform in the remaining primaries. Upcoming primaries in
Wyoming, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and beyond are a chance for both
of them to show their stuff, debate the issues, develop their
campaign skills, rally even more Americans to the need for change,
and prove their mettle. Whichever one emerges victorious will be
battle-tested and better equipped to take on McCain and the
Republican attack machine.

Has
the campaign gotten too ugly? Anyone who believes that has never
experienced a political campaign before. Remember 2000, when the Bush
campaign accused John McCain of fathering an illegitimate black
daughter? Remember 2002, when Saxby Chambliss ran ads with a photo of
war hero and triple-amputee Max Cleland alongside Saddam Hussein and
Osama bin Laden? Compared to those two campaigns, and many others,
this Democratic primary is a church picnic.

There
have been a couple of low moments, such as Clinton’s saying that as
far as she knew, "Obama’s a Christian." But for the most
part, the campaign has been remarkably civil, focusing on legitimate
differences in policy and experience.

Pull
the plug on the primaries now? No way. Grab another beer from the
fridge. The second half is just getting underway.

Bill
Press is host of a nationally syndicated radio show and author of a
new book, "How
the Republicans Stole Religion."
You can hear "The Bill Press Show" at billpressshow.com.
His email address is: bill@billpress.com. His Web site is:
www.billpress.com.