The Hispanic vote in South Florida
Not dyed blue yet
The
Hispanic vote in South Florida
By
Alan Farago Read Spanish Version
In
Florida on November 4th, Barack Obama made historic inroads with the
Hispanic vote. In southeastern Congressional districts, three Cuban
American Republican incumbents, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Mario and
Lincoln Diaz-Balart faced credible Democratic challengers: Annette
Taddeo, Joe Garcia, and Raul Martinez.
With
a state economy in crisis, intense voter registration and GOTV, not
to mention huge public disapproval of Congress and President Bush,
Democrats reasonably hoped for inroads. It was not to be.
In
the 25th Congressional District Mario Diaz Balart defeated Joe
Garcia, former head of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and past
director of the Cuban American National Foundation, 52.8 to 47.2
percent. In June, Democratic pollster Bendixen and Associates pegged
Diaz-Balart 44 percent, Garcia 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
In
the state’s 21st Congressional District, Lincoln Diaz-Balart
defeated former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, 57.8 to 42.2 percent.
Bendixen had earlier predicted 41 percent Diaz-Balart, 37 percent
Martinez, with 22 percent undecided.
In
the 18th Congressional District Ileana Ros-Lehtinen defeated newcomer
Annette Taddeo, with 57.7 percent of the vote to 42.3 percent.
Bendixen had Ros-Lehtinen at 58 percent in June, 31 percent Taddeo,
11 percent undecided.
Fernand
Amandi, of Bendixen and Associates, says, “The opportunity was in
the non Cuban Hispanic vote and particularly in the Anglo vote. That
is where more aggressive and tactically savvy efforts could have made
a difference.”
Martinez
lost both the Cuban and Anglo vote by a significant margin. According
to Amandi, “Martinez had a wonderful story to tell about his
successful tenure as mayor of Hialeah — instead his campaign decided
to communicate with attack ads and response ads. His strategic
mistake was allowing the incumbent to define him as a caricature.”
But
in Cuban American politics, especially in Hispanic media, caricature
counts. So do old grievances. Martinez has long experience waging
political campaigns. It was his first loss after 27 years in public
office in Hialeah, the second largest municipality in Miami-Dade
County. Amandi says, “Negative messages don’t work without first
defining yourself. You have to give a rationale for your candidacy
and issues and campaign message, making a case first for who an
incumbent is and why he shouldn’t be re-hired.”
During
the campaign, the Republican incumbents declined repeated interview
requests by The New York Times. In a public forum, Congressman Mario
Diaz Balart said he wouldn’t speak to the Times because it was a
“biased newspaper.” More to the point, Diaz Balart’s core
constituency — older Cuban Americans — don’t read the Times and
the swing votes in his district, Anglos who are mostly Democrat, do.
According
to Amandi, “These three campaigns waited until the very end to
create the rationale for their candidacies in the effort to conserve
funds. If they had been on television earlier, it would have allowed
them to define themselves first in the minds of the voters. I don’t
think a more aggressive effort with Cuban American outreach (by the
challengers) would have paid dividends. The Cuban American vote is
still at its core a Republican base vote.”
The
Miami Herald reported, “… in all three congressional contests,
the subject of Cuba — be it the decades-old embargo, lifting travel
restrictions or Fidel and Raul Castro — rarely rose on the campaign
trail or over the television airwaves.” (Obama wins Florida’s
Hispanic Vote, November 5, 2008). That is not exactly the case.
Among
Cuban Americans who might have been persuaded to vote for the
challengers and narrow the gap, there was in varying degrees
antipathy expressed through whisper campaigns, the settling of old
grudges, rumors of business relationships with Cuba and grievances
tied to the Elian saga. Among the challengers, these undoubtedly hurt
Martinez and also Garcia.
Most
telling was not the support of big name Dems like Nancy Pelosi, in
Miami to rally the troops, but the absence of Senator Robert
Menendez, the most senior and powerful Cuban American in Congress.
Despite
the outcome, the long-time reliance on attack ads and vituperative
slander on Spanish language AM radio may have run its course. The
Herald reports, “Statewide, Hispanic Democrats now outnumber
Hispanic Republicans, 513,000 to 445,000.” In Miami-Dade, polls
show that young Cuban American voters and non-Cuban Hispanics, the
growing demographic, have nearly matched older Cuban Americans.
Although
recent election results did not change the composition of the Florida
legislature; Republicans still dominate 76-44 in the House and 24-16
in the Senate, Republican strategists have reason to worry.
The
biggest losers in this election are economic interests tied to
suburban sprawl and production homebuilding, the durable source of
Republican political campaign contributions and advertising in
Hispanic media. During the housing bubble, the industry was
bullet-proof and could do no wrong. But a tidal wave of foreclosures
and buried housing values make the heavy-handed influence of land
speculators and campaign contributors toxic to young Cuban Americans
and non Cuban Hispanics.
However
pleased Republican may be with defending its Congressional seats in
South Florida, the rationale for bipolar messaging — one message on
Spanish language media and another for Anglos and African Americans
— may have run its course. The rigid orthodoxy that prevails in
places like Hialeah, Kendall, Westchester and Little Havana that win
county and district legislative races today carry no weight
nationally, given the clear shift in the Hispanic vote toward
Democrats.
Although
Obama won Florida, 50.9 percent to 48.4 percent; he carried 57
percent of the state’s Hispanic vote and virtually tied the
national margin of victory in Miami-Dade, Florida’s most populous and
politically influential county. For Democrats in South Florida —
aiming to those Congressional districts, gerrymandered as they are —
much depends on the recruitment and rise of a new generation of
Hispanic aspirants to public office; without the burden or baggage of
the past.
The
Republican legislature — whose yearly sessions are marked by
outlandish demonstrations of fealty to right wing, conservative
causes — ought to take note. Among Hispanic voters, change has
arrived, fundamentally rearranging Florida politics — at the center
of the nation’s political contests — in years to come. Florida’s
Republicans might not like to hear it, but in Miami where the
nation’s Republican governors [we]re meeting [last week], the
writing is on the wall.
Alan
Farago, an attorney,
writes on the environment and politics from Coral Gables, Florida,
and can be reached at alanfarago@yahoo.com.
