The battle for the White House and the far-right militias

Political violence manifests itself in different forms on the electoral scene in the United States. President Trump systematically promotes it, forces of order have increased police brutality against minorities, groups and movements of various kinds and a state of siege have been declared in several cities recently. Internal terrorist plans were also dismantled in Michigan and Virginia.

All these events have generated a strong perception of insecurity in the American people. Its immediate impact has been the substantial increase in the purchase of firearms and not a few consider the possibility of a civil war after November 3.

As the presidential election approaches the situation is beginning to become more tense and there is concern that violence may reach unprecedented levels. In this context, the behavior of the far-right militias constitutes one of the key factors that will determine the evolution of events. The actions of these groups have been functional to the interests of Donald Trump, and in practice they are an essential instrument to implement his strategy of chaos.

According to Militia Watch, currently 80 of these armed groups are active at the national level, with 34 states reporting incidents involving them. In recent months their priorities have been focused on recruiting new members, conducting firearms training and carrying out simulation exercises in violent scenarios.

In essence, they are preparing to deploy, as of the first Tuesday in November, in places where they have the capacity to generate a destabilizing environment that can influence the electoral results. Their main political goal is to ensure that Trump remains in the White House.

Just a week ago, the American non-profit organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) published the most exhaustive study that has been carried out on the behavior of these groups on the electoral scene. The research is titled: “Standing By: Right Wing Militia Groups & the US Election” and its fundamental purpose is to identify states where there is a high risk that actions by these groups can happen compromising the security of the elections.

According to the report, these militias can be classified into three fundamental groups: the mainstream; the right-wing street movements; and the right-wing libertarian groups. They have a common denominator: They all use violence as an essential component in their behavior, they are heavily armed, they consider progressive sectors as their enemies, and Donald Trump is one of their sources of inspiration.

The “mainstream” militias are characterized by coordinating their actions with local police forces. They consider the police and the military to be their allies. They are groups with a clear hierarchical structure and state that their objective during protests is “to preserve public safety and take care of business.” Those with the greatest impact within this group are the Three Percenters, The Oath Keepers, Civilian Defense Force, and American Contingency.

The Three Percenters are based on the belief that only 3 percent of the residents of the thirteen original colonies took up arms against the British. They were created in 2008 after Obama became president-elect. This militia proclaimed that they would fight against the “tyranny” of an African-American president. In recent months they have been active in 19 states, with the largest presence in Georgia. They have ties to the Ku Klux Klan, and last August they provided “protective services” to this hate group in the context of a protest promoted by the Black Lives Matter movement in Arkansas.

The Oath Keepers also originated as a result of an extremist reaction to Obama’s election. Its premise is to uphold the oath of the police and the military to “protect the United States from internal and external enemies.” To increase their membership they prioritize the recruitment of active and retired officers from police and the Armed Forces. Its founder and leader is Stewart Rhides, who is a U.S. Army veteran. They are very active in Kentucky and Texas. In the case of the Civilian Defense Force and the American Contingency, they were created a few months ago with the objective of carrying out counter-protests and are mostly found in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona.

The militias known as “right-wing street movements” are the most dangerous and have the greatest capacity to provoke disturbances due to their capacity for violence. Among them are the Proud Boys and the Patriot Prayer. Most of their members are young people who promote neofascist ideas. The FBI has classified them as extremists linked to white nationalism.

The Proud Boys were created in September 2016 in the context of Trump’s presidential campaign. At this year’s first presidential debate the group gained national notoriety when President Trump asked them to “stand back and stand by,” interpreted by its members as a kind of “be ready for war.” Its leader in Florida is a Cuban-American, Enrique Tarrio, who lives in Miami and also serves as director of “Latinos for Trump” in that state.

They have participated in the most aggressive demonstrations in at least 11 states with their largest presence in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Oregon. Some of their members have declared that if Trump is not re-elected, a civil war will be unleashed in the United States. In the case of the group, Patriot Prayer, they have their base of operations mainly in the states of Washington and Oregon. Their public profile was in full force during the Portland protests when trucks were driven into the crowds.

The militias classified as “right-wing libertarian groups” feel that they must prepare for a second civil war and appreciate that this conflagration is practically inevitable. The better known organizations under this classification include the Boogaloo Bois and People’s Rights. Boogaloo Bois was linked to the Kenosha events in Wisconsin where a young extremist murdered two participants during a protest organized by the Black Lives Matter movement. Both have a presence in more than 10 states, including California, Nevada, Utah, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

According to the ACLED study, militias could present themselves in the vicinity of voting centers on Election Day with the intention of intimidating minority voters. Later, as the vote count progresses and  partial results are released two fundamental scenarios could unfold depending on whether Trump loses by a narrow margin, or the announcement of a winner is prolonged. Should any of these situations occur, conditions would be created for the deployment of these groups.

According to the study, these militias would have a stronger influence in places with the following characteristics: where social protests have occurred; where there are both progressive and anti-Trump movements; sites where these armed groups have recruited and have training camps; as well as cities and towns where they have the support of the police and law enforcement officials who tolerate their activities.

After evaluating these factors, it was determined that Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Oregon are at high risk for militia activity manifestation as of Nov. 3. The study calculated that moderate risks exist in places like North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, California, and New Mexico. Actions are most likely to take place in state capitals, towns located on the periphery of large cities, and in suburban areas.

Beyond these identified organizations that have public visibility, the study warns about the possibility that certain individuals classified as “lone wolves,” or small groups not affiliated with any extremist group, could also trigger violent actions. One must also consider that presently U.S. authorities believe that this constitutes the greatest threat of domestic terrorism for the nation.

With less than a week until November 3, it is not possible to anticipate with certainty what the behavior of these groups will be given the volatility and complexity of the internal situation in the U.S. However, if Biden wins by a wide margin as a result of a blue wave of voters, the ability of these militias to promote actions with an impact on the stability of the country is significantly reduced. Otherwise, if Election Day is permeated with uncertainty then America could become a veritable battlefield.