Polls show government out of step with voters

By Weekly Archive On Jun 18, 2008

The
Foundation for Normalization of US/Cuba Relations (FORNORM) yesterday
released the results of three opinion polls on Cuba-related issues
conducted by Hamilton Campaigns, a prestigious national polling
organization. FORNORM is a Florida not-for-profit and non-partisan
organization established in 2006. The brainchild of a diverse group
of community leaders and activists, its goal is to provide realistic
information about the advantages of a civil, respectful, and normal
relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. See www.fornorm.com.

The
polls were conducted in three Florida congressional districts: 17,
21, and 25, currently represented, respectively, by Kendrick Meek,
Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart. The 17^th
district poll was conducted in October 2007; the other two polls, in
May 2008. The polls have a margin of error of less than five percent.

The
results of all polls show that current U.S. government and state of
Florida policies are largely out of step with the views of registered
voters of all ethnic backgrounds and political affiliations.

Key
findings in the Meek district:

1.
A plurality of voters oppose the current U.S. policy toward Cuba in
general (27% support – 41% oppose – 32% no opinion). A
plurality of every demographic
subgroup
opposes U.S. policy toward Cuba.

2.
A majority of voters in the district say that ending the embargo and
allowing more travel and trade to Cuba will help spread democratic
values to the country (57% agree – 32% disagree). A
majority of non-Hispanic voters
agree
that more travel and trade will help spread democracy in Cuba, while
Hispanic
voters are split in their opinion on this (46% agree – 46%
disagree).
The
majority of voters from each political party agree with the
statement.

3.
A majority of voters favor several less restrictive changes to
U.S./Cuba policy. Voters
favor generally applying the same rules to Cubans that we apply
to
immigrants from other countries (76 in favor, 15% opposed), including
greater freedom to travel (73% to 20%) and send money home (76% to
18%). Voters also favor allowing travel to Cuba by U.S. citizens (74%
to 17%), reestablishing diplomatic relations between the two
countries (62% to 22%), and allowing more
trade
and investment in Cuba (52% to 36%).

Key
findings in the Lincoln Diaz-Balart district:

1.
A slim plurality of voters support in general the current U.S.
policy toward Cuba (45% support – 41% oppose – 14% no opinion).
This slim level of support, which is within the margin of error,
results mostly from Hispanics, particularly those of Cuban origin
over the age of 55. Only 50% of Cubans under the age of 55, however,
favor current policy. Among non-Hispanics, only 29 percent support
it, while 53 percent oppose it and 18 percent have no opinion.

2.
When asked specifically about giving Cuban-Americans more freedom to
send money and financial support to their families in Cuba, 63%
support such freedom, 28% oppose it. Even the most hard-line
Cuban-Americans, those over the age of 55, oppose this freedom by the
slim margin of 46 to 43 percent, again within the margin of error of
the poll. Cuban-Americans under 55 support more freedom to travel and
to send money by a margin of 70% to 23%. Among non-Hispanics, the
margin is even greater, 74% to 19%.

3.
Likewise, either a majority or a plurality of voters favors allowing
Cuban-Americans to travel freely to Cuba, with only Cuban-Americans
opposed by a margin of 51% to 45%. Cuban-Americans under 55 favor
unfettered travel by a margin of 73% to 27% and non-Hispanics by a
margin of 79% to 15%.

4.
Other questions reveal that a majority of the electorate also favors
other policies tending toward normalization of relations, including
(1) allowing U.S. citizens to travel to Cuba (60% in favor, 30%
opposed); (2) promoting cultural, entertainment, and sporting
exchanges between Cuba and the U.S. (58% in favor, 37% opposed); and
(3) re-establishing diplomatic relations

between
the United States and Cuba (49% in favor, 44% opposed). The margins
would have been even larger but for the strong opposition of
Cuban-Americans over the age of 55 to these proposals. Curiously,
voters view less favorably the notion of allowing U.S. companies to
trade and invest in Cuba, the one policy that is partly in effect
(limited trade).

5.
Significant pluralities of voters generally indicate they are more
likely to vote for a candidate that (1) would allow Cuban-Americans
to travel freely to Cuba; (2) will not restrict remittances; and (3)
would emphasize health-care, lowering housing costs and improving our
schools, as opposed to a candidate whose top priority is to change
the political system of Cuba. On the latter issue, there is a huge
gap between the posture of most politicians and the views of voters.
Seventy-seven percent prefer a candidate who focuses on local issues,
while only 12% prefer a candidate bent upon regime change in Cuba.

Key
findings in In the Mario Diaz-Balart district:

The
findings in the Mario Diaz-Balart district closely track those in the
Lincoln Diaz-Balart district, with one significant difference: voters
actually oppose, generally, the current policies of the U.S. toward
Cuba by a margin of 48% to 40%. In both districts, the most
recalcitrant group is that of Cuban-Americans over the age of 55.
When it comes to the proposal to grant more freedom to send
remittances to relatives on the island, however, even that group is
in favor by a margin of 51% to 42%.

Conclusion

The
U.S. embargo on Cuba and restrictions on family visits and
remittances are not favored by majorities or pluralities of the
electorate in all three districts. African-Americans, Haitians and
non-Hispanic Whites strongly disagree with current policies. Only
Cuban-Americans over the age of 55 generally favor the status quo,
and even they disfavor the restrictions on helping family members on
the island. While Hispanics as a group appear to support the current
measures to some extent, this is because they are grouped with the
over-55 Cuban-Americans, who are strongly in favor of most
restrictions and tend to distort the results relative to this ethnic
group. (Also, there is probably greater adverse propaganda directed
at Hispanics by their elected representatives and the local media
concerning Cuba-related issues.) Civic leaders, politicians and the
media should take notice.

To
view graphs and more information about the polls, please click here.