Parallel governments have expiration dates
The architecture of every parallel government certainly has an expiration date. It can not be prolonged forever because in time it will dissolve.
That is why the self-proclamation of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela and his “transitory government” is up against its own expiration date. It either expands and begins to occupy spaces within the institutions of power inside Venezuela or it begins to melt.
What they hope for, to keep it from thawing, is an instrument that has fallen not from the sky, but one provided by United States, the country that has written this script from the beginning: the “humanitarian aid” received from Washington, one that will not be distributed by recognized international organizations with the experience to do this, like the United Nations, that is reluctant to politicize all humanitarian efforts.
This humanitarian aid is meant to push to the breaking point the institutional support of the Venezuelan armed forces. Fracturing them has been and is the primary objective. If this is not achieved, there is the second step, apparently softer and worked through seductions and pressures to allow the passage of aid through the border points, especially through the enclave of Cúcuta.
In other words, enter Venezuelan territory against the will of the government. This should create the classic military dilemma of “should I obey or disobey” and framed within the scope of the sovereignty of the state over its territory.
How to prevent this border violation? That is the point at which we find ourselves at the moment. There is the possibility of an extremely tragic scenario that leads bellicose actions.
Given the situation Venezuela’s legitimate government finds itself in against its real enemy, the United States, points us in the direction of confrontation.
Venezuela’s defense of its border seems to be the point of contention. But it’s not the only one. Washington and Bogota have other tricks up their sleeves — maybe unforeseen disorders or other perfectly calibrated actions that may occur, commonly referred to as “false flag attacks.” They may be attacks that target civilians trying to cross, or even the Venezuelan forces. All done in order to escalate the possibility of confrontation.
Here is the point of inflection where, for example U.S. forces, or those of its partners, carry out specific attacks on sensitive targets within Venezuelan territory. It is just a first step using destructive force to create doubt within the Venezuelan military and hopefully achieve the division and capitalization desired.
A confrontation seems at the doorstep. Hopefully not, but my wishes do not supplant the image created of the several that roam through my mind.