Obama wins Florida and the presidency
Al’s Loupe
Obama wins Florida and the presidency
By Alvaro F. Fernandez
alvaro@progresoweekly.com
For republicans to beat President Obama in November they must win Florida. Political experts tell us that.
The president’s scenario is different. His advisers claim to have drawn a path to victory that doesn’t necessarily have to include Florida. But if Obama does claim the sunshine state, expect a very long evening for republicans in November.
So let’s take a look at the results of the recently completed Republican primary here in Florida to see what we can decipher. I checked out voter turnout and who voted. And I looked carefully at Miami-Dade County – with its cache of bloc-voting Cuban republicans.
My conclusion: As predicted, this will be a tough election year for the President. There’s one good reason: Our economy stinks! But if Florida is a determinant, I believe Obama will be reelected. Let’s see why I take this leap of faith.
First, look at turnout. It’s one way of measuring voter enthusiasm. And there was less this time for republicans than in 2008. Four years ago the Florida republican primary drew almost two million voters. Less than 1.7 million this time around. Not a good sign when you consider that just two years ago, after major republican wins in the midterm elections, many predicted a tsunami of ‘Anybody but Obama’ republican voters. And so far, except for South Carolina (won by Newt Gingrich), that has not been the case. Turnout in Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire has been down – considerably.
So let’s agree that Florida republicans weren’t enthused with the menu of candidates offered to take on the president. And that’s after just two (Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich), from a field of more than four, spent almost $30 million on campaign advertising. Most of that money going to negative ads all aimed at destroying each other. Which might give us a clue why voters were disillusioned.
South and northern Florida seal the deal
And although Romney won the primary handily, Gingrich defeated Romney in the northern parts of the state. Those are staunchly conservative GOP areas. I believe that many of these voters may decide not to participate in November if their choice is between a black democrat and what they consider to be a middle of the road republican who’s a Mormon. Good news for the president.
Then there’s South Florida’s republican turnout. It was horribly poor. Consider that 114,644 people voted (13.82%). Compare that to the 2008 number of republican voters in the primary (won by John McCain): 155,419. And this after considering that Cuban republicans were being harangued to vote for Romney by the likes of the Diaz-Balart brothers, our resident crook in congress David Rivera and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Let’s give them their due though: Those who voted did so for Romney.
Finally, I refer you to an excellent piece written by former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre in The Miami Herald titled, “Which way the Hispanic vote?”
In it Ferre uses statistics offered by a recent ABC News/Univision News survey that states, “The Hispanic/Latino vote in Florida favors President Obama 50 percent, over Mitt Romney’s 40 percent and 52 percent for Obama, over Newt Gingrich’s 38 percent. That is not significantly different from the 57 percent of the Florida Hispanic vote that Obama took in 2008 race.
“In the largest Hispanic bloc in our state, Cuban Americans, Romney would win by 54 percent, to Obama’s 34. In the second largest Hispanic community here, the Puerto Ricans, Obama wins by 67 percent to Romney’s 23 percent.
“The surprise is that all these percentage numbers are almost identical to the 2008 presidential race. What is also a surprise is that the Cuban-American vote statewide continues to decrease proportionately.”
Conclusions reached: If 34% of Cuban-Americans vote for Obama (actually anything over 30% would be good) and an almost 70% of Puerto Ricans (whose numbers have swelled since 2008 and in the near future surpass the Cuban numbers), and a large number of good ole Florida rednecks decide to stay home on election day…
Get the picture? Anyway, don’t take these words for granted. If you’re not registered, then register. Email me if you don’t know where to go. And on election day, vote and vote for Barack Obama.
I know he promised hope and change and has given us too much of the same. But folks, look at the options!
