Latin America: A year of advances and reversals
By
Eduardo Dimas Read Spanish Version
I don’t
know if you agree with me, but I have the feeling that, if we place
everything that happened in Latin America in 2007 on a scale, it will
tilt to the side of the progressive forces. Even the right-wing
analysts will have to admit that — despite the reverses, the
offensives from the Empire and the oligarchs, the errors and miscues,
the grandstandings and the misunderstandings — the region moved
forward on a road of greater unity and, by extension, of
independence.
Of
course, almost none of the changes are consolidated and there is
always the danger of a retreat. In some countries, such as Venezuela
and Bolivia, the social change is clearly visible. In others, such as
Ecuador and Nicaragua, it is just beginning and must face powerful
forces that oppose it.
As to
the rest, one cannot talk about social transformation, although some
governments, such as those in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and
Paraguay, members of the Common Market of the South (Mercosur), have
assumed, to varying degrees, integrationist stances in defense of the
national interests. That — in Latin America after the neoliberal
wave of the 1980s and ’90s — is a very positive fact.
Perhaps
the best expression of the integration process is the creation of the
Bank of the South, whose opening took place in Argentina 24 hours
after the inauguration of President Cristina Fernández de
Kirchner. With an initial capital of $10 billion, the bank will serve
to finance social and infrastructure works.
That
economic institution was founded by Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela,
Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay, countries that combined
account for more than 80 percent of South America’s gross domestic
product. The rest of the governments in the region (Chile, Peru and
Colombia), which have signed free-trade agreements with the United
States, chose to stay outside, although membership in the bank would
give them greater financial independence.
The year
now ending saw a restart of the Central American Common Market
(MCCA), but that does not mean the group has much of a chance for
success. Apparently, U.S. interests are behind those efforts,
following the approval of free-trade pacts between the U.S., Costa
Rica and Guatemala. The MCCA was created in the 1960s and ended in
failure.
Other
aspects of regional integration saw advances and reversals.
Venezuela’s membership in Mercosur was postponed until 2008 because
of the refusal of the Brazilian Congress to approve Venezuela’s
admission. The same happened to Bolivia, which had also requested
admission.
The
Southern Oil Pipeline, a major project that attempts to link Brazil,
Argentina, Brazil and Chile, as well as any other interested nations,
and guarantee the stable transfer of natural gas from the fields in
Bolivia and Venezuela, has not gone beyond the drawing boards.
However,
the plans for energy development worked out by Brazil and Venezuela
are proceeding well. In mid-December, during a visit by the Brazilian
president to Venezuela, nine plans for joint development were signed,
encompassing economic and social spheres.
The
Argentine government also has established economic and social
projects with Venezuela, the region’s largest producer of crude oil
and natural gas. Bolivia has been one of the main beneficiaries of
the integration process, following the nationalization of the
production and commercialization of gas.
The
plans for energy development between Venezuela and Colombia appear to
have been halted by the breakdown in relations between presidents
Álvaro Uribe Vélez and Hugo Chávez, after Uribe
unilaterally halted Chávez’s efforts to facilitate an exchange
of prisoners between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC) and the Colombian government.
Most
observers agree that any success in the humanitarian exchange would
have given Chávez a prestige that neither the Colombian
oligarchy nor the U.S. Government could have stomached.
On a
social level, the countries that advanced the most in 2007 were
Venezuela and Bolivia, with the development of wide-ranging plans for
health care and education supported fraternally by Cuba. About one
million people have undergone eye surgery in the course of Operation
Miracle. The health-care system is being expanded in both countries
and will provide free coverage to the entire population.
In
education, hundreds of thousands of people in both countries were
taught to read and write with the Cuban method known as "Yes, I
can," whose successful application in several countries has been
acknowledged by UNESCO, the United Nations Education, Scientific and
Cultural Organization.
A
similar process now begins in Nicaragua and Ecuador. In other words,
one of the big hopes of Latin American countries is becoming reality
as part of this new vision of social justice conceived by several
governments that are willing to pay the social debt incurred after
centuries of exploitation and abandonment.
Of
course, not everything is rose-colored. All the processes of change
going on in Latin America, even the regional economic integration,
are subjected to strong political pressures exerted against them by
the U.S. Government and the national oligarchies.
The
strengthening of Mercosur, with the admission of Venezuela and
Bolivia, would mean a setback to the divisive attempts of the White
House and its local allies, so it’s not surprising they are doing
everything possible to undermine Mercosur. However, even if the two
countries join Mercosur, it is impossible to overlook some of the
regional accords that benefit all the countries and some of the
transnational corporations that participate in Latin American trade.
The
principal dangers for the economic and political integration of Latin
America loom inside the countries themselves. The local bourgeoisies
and oligarchies, incapable of walking by themselves, oppose any type
of change, yet in practice they would benefit from the rise in the
standard of living of most of the population.
Nations
that depend on election processes to keep up (or not) the plans for
economic and social development are never safe, because the rightist
parties, the Empire’s unconditional allies, would reverse the process
if they return to power.
The
elite of world power, intent on maintaining an economic model that
has shown signs of exhaustion, seems willing to do everything it can
to impede the process of development and integration in Latin
America. It is a powerful force that has enormous resources and
controls most of the mass-information media in the world.
The
worldwide campaigns against Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez
and Bolivian President Evo Morales are not waged by happenstance.
Both men have had to deal with continuous plans for destabilization,
coup d’état attempts, and — in Morales’ case — the danger of
secession, promoted by the oligarchy in the department of Santa Cruz
with the support of the White House. Both forces refuse to accept the
new Constitution.
As I
write these lines, the news from Bolivia is extremely alarming. The
new Magna Carta was submitted to the National Congress and, later, to
a mass popular rally that supported it. At the same time, the four
departments of the so-called Half Moon (Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando and
Beni), as well as Cochabamba, announced their intention to declare
themselves autonomous.
Both
positions are incompatible, because a unilateral declaration of
autonomy is unconstitutional and prevents any type of political
solution, given the oligarchy’s refusal to accept the new
Constitution and negotiate with the government. Therefore, we cannot
rule out confrontations where the Army would have to act and the
Bolivian people would take to the streets, as I commented in a
previous article.
In
Venezuela, the opposition achieved a pyrrhic victory in the
referendum for a reform of the Magna Carta. This seems to have
quieted the oligarchy, but it is evident that neither the oligarchy
nor the Empire will halt their efforts to impede the social
transformations being conducted by the Bolivarian Revolution and the
integrationist plans of Hugo Chávez.
So, many
things remain to be decided in Latin America. Despite the
achievements in economic integration and social benefits received by
the population of some countries, very little or nothing is being
consolidated. This suggests that next year will be a period of strong
political confrontations, perhaps even bloody. That likelihood is
part of the era of changes now coursing through Latin America.
Cuba,
Venezuela and Bolivia (and now Ecuador and Nicaragua) have set the
pace of change in Latin America and the Caribbean. Against them stand
all the forces of the oligarchy and the Empire. Popular support for
those processes will decide the outcome, an outcome that perhaps will
not occur in 2008. In any case, the continuity of this process is
indispensable for the true and definitive independence of Latin
America. Time will tell.
