FIU Cuba poll 2024: Cuban American voters’ support for Trump at an all-time high
By Madeline Baro / FIU News
Sixty-eight percent of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County said they would check off the name of former President Donald Trump on the ballot in November, according to the 2024 FIU Cuba Poll released today. Twenty-three percent reported they plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. Five percent remained undecided.
Sixty-eight percent is the highest recorded approval rate for Trump among Cuban Americans on the FIU Cuba Poll, which is the longest running survey of Cuban Americans in the country, tracking the community since 1991. The 2016 poll registered 35% approval for Trump, while the 2020 came in at 59%. The 2024 approval rate is also greater than the actual Cuban American vote for Trump in the last two presidential elections.
“It seems that the Trump train is still picking up passengers on Calle Ocho,” said Guillermo Grenier, lead investigator on the Cuba Poll and a professor of sociology in the Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies at the Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs, which sponsors the poll along with FIU’s Cuban Research Institute. “Cuban Americans born outside of Cuba being the exception, the Cuban American community remains loyal to the Republican Party and the Trump version of it.”
The 2024 Cuba Poll surveyed 1,001 Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County by phone between Sept. 25 and Oct. 9. Questions about the election were posed only to the likely voters (U.S. Citizens) among the responders.
While Republicans continue to maintain a majority among registered Cuban American voters (55%), Cuban Americans born outside of Cuba are divided in their party allegiance: 38% are registered Republicans, 33% are Democrats and 26% are Independents (No Party Affiliation).
In the Florida senate election, U.S. Senator Rick Scott is expected to receive 50% of the Cuban American vote, while challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will garner approximately 19% of the decided voters. A relatively large undecided segment (22%) makes the race for the U.S. Senate seat closer than expected, given Scott’s previous overwhelming support from the community.
On other issues, including U.S. policy toward Cuba, there is much more diversity of opinion.
Democratic and Republican supporters differ in their evaluation of the most important issues facing the country.
For Republican supporters, the top issues, ranked, are: (1) the economy, (2) immigration, (3) access to health care, (4) relations with China, (5) relations with Russia, (6) relations with Cuba, (7) race relations, (8) assault weapons accessibility and (9) access to safe abortion care.
For Democrats, the top issues are (1) access to health care, (2) access to safe abortion care, (3) the economy, (4) assault weapons accessibility, (5) race relations, (6) immigration, (7) relations with Russia, (8) relations with Cuba and (9) relations with China.
On the issue of the U.S. embargo against Cuba, 55% of Cuban Americans in South Florida support its continuation, although they also show relatively high support for some engagement policies such as the selling of food (61% support) and medicine (69% support) to the island. Support for the continuation of the embargo drops to 43% among Cuban Americans not born on the island.
“This year’s findings confirm a long trend of Cuban American support for a sophisticated policy approach that combines sanctions against the regime while engaging with the Cuban people,” said Sebastian Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Research Institute. “Cuban Americans have a better grasp of the issues and policy trade-offs involved than most experts and policy makers. Maintaining the U.S. embargo is at the core of this approach, which largely explains Cuban American’s traditional inclinations toward the Republican Party and strong support for Donald Trump’s policies.”
