Dead heat: Nelson and Scott tied in latest poll

Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Florida Gov. Rick Scott are locked in a 49 – 49 percent dead heat among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race in the Sunshine State, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. 

The gender gap is a mirror image as men back Gov. Scott 53 – 45 percent, while women back Sen. Nelson 53 – 45 percent. This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. 

White voters back Scott 55 – 44 percent, as black voters back Nelson 90 – 5 percent. Hispanic voters go Republican 59 – 39 percent. 

Nelson leads 89 – 8 percent among Democrats and 56 – 43 percent among independent voters. Scott leads 92 – 7 percent among Republicans. 

Among Florida likely voters who have named a U.S. Senate candidate, 92 percent say their mind is made up. 

Voters approve 49 – 43 percent of the job Nelson is doing as a U.S. Senator and give him a 48 – 42 percent favorability rating. 

Voters approve 51 – 46 percent of the job Scott is doing as governor and give him a divided 49 – 47 percent favorability rating. 

“The Florida Senate race, one of the most important this election year, is a dead heat,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 

“Sen. Bill Nelson, the Democratic incumbent, faces the most difficult challenge of his long political career. He is locked in a 49 – 49 percent contest with Republican Rick Scott, Florida’s governor,” added Brown. 

“The campaign is a prototype of our nation’s political environment: Democrat Nelson carries women and black voters, while Republican Scott wins among men and white voters. The key in close elections like this one often lies with independent voters. So far, Sen. Nelson has the edge with this swing group. The candidate who holds those voters in November is likely to win,” Brown said. 

President Donald Trump is not an important factor in their choice of a U.S. Senator, 46 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 26 percent say their Senate vote is mainly to support the president and 25 percent say their vote is mainly in opposition to Trump. 

While he is not on the ballot in 2018, only 44 percent of Florida likely voters approve of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, while 47 percent disapprove. 

From August 30 – September 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 785 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. 

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll