Curbelo leads in spite of ‘blue wave’
By David Wasserman
For Republicans, the 2018 House playing field is a lot like a game of Whack-a-Mole: everywhere they turn, new problems keep popping up in surprising places. In January, we rated 20 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including three leaning towards Democrats. With today’s changes, we now rate 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including ten leaning towards Democrats.
Republicans are relieved that state Sen. Troy Balderson appears to have eked out a win in Ohio’s 12th CD special election last week. But a new round of polls shows several more GOP incumbents, including Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Tom MacArthur (NJ-03) highly vulnerable. Their seats, along with Rep. Robert Pittenger’s open NC-09, move from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
On the bright side for Republicans, a handful of their battle-tested incumbents appear to be defying the “blue wave” in Democratic-leaning seats. Recent campaign polling shows Reps. David Valadao (CA-21), Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Will Hurd (TX-23) with impressive initial leads in districts Hillary Clinton carried. This week, Curbelo moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
Rating Changes:
CA-45: Walters | Lean R to Toss Up ←
FL-26: Curbelo | Toss Up to Lean R →
NJ-03: MacArthur | Lean R to Toss Up ←
NC-09: OPEN (Pittenger) | Lean R to Toss Up ←
PA-10: Perry | Likely R to Lean R ←
[…]
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R) – South: Homestead, The Keys, The Everglades
Lean Republican. Curbelo should have no business surviving in a suburban Miami seat that voted for Hillary Clinton 57 percent to 41 percent in 2016. But the Republican hasn’t been shy about his support for immigration reform and a carbon tax, or calling the president’s remarks in Helsinki “unacceptable” and “deeply alarming,” and private polls continue to show him in surprisingly good shape for reelection.
Democrats say Curbelo’s vote for the GOP healthcare bill proves he’s a secret Trump ally hiding behind a moderate facade. And, they believe they’ll benefit from nominating someone other than disgraced former Rep. Joe Garcia: fundraising consultant Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a fundraising consultant and former FIU official who lost a state senate race in 2016 but has raised $1.6 million for this race.
Mucarsel-Powell believes her personal story of losing her father to gun violence in Ecuador will resonate in a district not far from Parkland High School. But she’s also not the most polished or dynamic candidate and could struggle against Curbelo in a debate setting. It’s still a competitive race, but Curbelo starts out well ahead and the burden is on Democrats to link him to the president.
Click here to read the full report from the The Cook Political Report.
