Cuba, the OAS, and U.S. Policy
By Max J. Castro
majcastro@gmail.com
Groucho Marx used to joke that he would not want to be a member of any club that would have him as a member. Something similar could be said about the OAS and Cuba. Recently, the OAS rescinded Cuba’s 1962 suspension after a fierce little fight between the United States and Cuba’s allies. After all that fuss, Cuba’s answer to the invitation, which came with some conditions thanks to the diplomatic efforts of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, was no.
The unanimous compromise decision to invite Cuba was yet another example of Latin America’s unwillingness to follow Washington’s script and the determination to make Cuba a litmus test for U.S.-Latin American relations.
Hillary Clinton has been telling Latin Americans the United States is instituting an entire new policy toward Cuba. But her actions at the OAS meeting and the changes so far announced suggest that while the tactics have changed the policy is predicated on what it has always been: regime change. Indeed, the decision to relax restrictions on Cuban American travel and remittances and reestablishing immigration talks, has a strong whiff of the two-track Clinton-era policy. That policy was a failure in the 1990s; it won’t work now either.
A truly new policy toward Cuba would require a paradigm change, specifically one that respects Cuban sovereignty and deals with Cuba as a normal country like China or Vietnam. So far, nothing the administration has said or done suggests it has adopted such a new paradigm.
So what is preventing the administration from striking out in a new direction? There is tremendous inertial force when it comes to Cuba policy. If the administration were to announce a major change it would catch flak from a number of sources, including Cuban Americans, conservative Republicans, the Florida delegation, and some important Democrats like Senator Bob Menendez. Amid all the other issues, Cuba is just not important enough for the administration to risk any political capital that it is going to need for issues like health care. Once more the cost benefit analysis for the administration in Washington favors small, cautious steps rather than a paradigm change.
In this light, Congress is left with the task of doing the heavy lifting, and there is now legislation in both houses that would end the travel ban on all Americans. That would be a big deal. Whether this measure reaches the President’s desk will be a test of the relative strength of the hard-line and moderate forces in Congress. There are some in the Senate, especially Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who seem ready to do almost anything, including throwing a tantrum, to short circuit any measure to soften the embargo against Cuba. And, since Cuba is not a key issue for many members of Congress, in the past it has been easy to throw a wrench in the works through a few tens of thousands in political contributions and other pressures.
Will it work again? Or will the travel ban repeal reach Obama’s desk this time? Would he sign it? It’s hard to see him vetoing it but it’s easy to see attempts to water down the legislation before it ever reaches Obama so that it includes only certain kinds of travel.
Stay tuned. This year’s battle figures to be a donnybrook.
