Continuity and cautious reforms

By Weekly Archive On Mar 5, 2008

By
Manuel Alberto Ramy

I
respond to the requests from several readers who have asked me for an
article about the outlook for the nation and the Revolution,
following the election of the members of the Council of State, with
Raúl Castro as its president.

Most
of the main international media publish headlines that tend to give
an impression of immobility. Similar are the statements by U.S. and
European politicians who make the serious mistake of analyzing the
course of another country from their own standpoint and wishes —
which of course they don’t apply to their allies, not to mention the
fact that they don’t revise the "real democracy" they claim
to practice. There, we can find several and unacceptable demands
placed on the dignity and sovereignty of Cuba.

For
my part, I think that any examination of what may happen in Cuba in
the next several months must begin with three elements. First, a
recent article by Fidel Castro where he defined what would happen in
a "new stage" propelled by dialectics and said that the
human composition of the various levels of administration would
combine the historic leaders, the intermediate generation and the new
generations.

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From
Havana Read Spanish Version

Continuity
and cautious reforms

By
Manuel Alberto Ramy
maprogre@gmail.com

I
respond to the requests from several readers who have asked me for an
article about the outlook for the nation and the Revolution,
following the election of the members of the Council of State, with
Raúl Castro as its president.

The
new Council of State

The
Council of State has 31 members; its cupola has eight, including
President Raúl Castro. Five members fought in the Rebel Army;
four of them fought during the War of Liberation in the Frank País
Second Eastern Front, under then-commander Raúl Castro. From
the intermediate generation, only two — Carlos Lage, 56, and Esteban
Lazo, 63, both members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party
of Cuba (CPC) — are present.

Evidently,
what we can identify as the "historic generation" controls
this new stage.
They all have a strong personal and work relationship with Raúl
Castro. But the fact that they are trusted by the president or that
they may (or may not) count on the sympathy of the population is not
the issue.

A
calm analysis of each one of them reveals a combination of efficiency
and loyalty that any leader would find satisfactory. Isn’t this more
important than anything else during a process of transformation in an
island 90 miles from a gluttonous power?

The
youngest generation is not represented in the cupola, but is seen
among the 23 remaining members of the Council of State. Even more
important is the fact that the process of reforms generated by the
government begins with the vision by the historic generation of the
needs and their possible solutions, which will be checked with the
historic leader, Fidel Castro.

To
many analysts, the mentality of that generation hinders the process
of reforms. Is this belief correct? True, no one can separate himself
from his past, but we mustn’t forget that it was that generation
which propelled the modest but significant economic changes during
the crisis of the 1990s. The "historic" leaders have their
feet firmly planted on the ground; they know that reality is stubborn
and always imposes itself, especially when the population expresses
it.

And
the historic generation is willing to work with the stubborn reality,
preventing it from taking over, so as to guarantee that the basic
principles are not lost in the reforms or measures that must
necessarily be implemented. I think it is a team willing to lead the
first stage of a natural process of gradual reforms, not to abort it.

President
Raúl Castro’s speech

Outside
Cuba, many have described President Raúl Castro’s speech as
moderate and restrained. I won’t waste time in arguing about
descriptions. I begin by saying that he has been consistent with his
previous pronouncements, in which he announced structural reforms
that were not spectacular and asked for a change in mindset.
Consequently, his first announced change was the reorganization of
the elements of the state’s central administration, in other words,
the ministries and official institutions as a whole.

This
includes an analysis into the continued existence or elimination of
some ministries, as well as the fusion of others, so as to achieve a
greater rationality, efficiency and reduction of the bureaucracy.
Along the same lines, he spoke about reviewing the ministers on the
basis of their efficiency and aptitude. One can speculate that the
younger generations will begin to occupy ministerial posts,
performing (with greater autonomy) the function of administrators and
executors of the new policies. Could it be also a kind of on-the-job
training, given the age of the members of the state cupola, whose
term of office is five years?

The
first structural change — the reorganization of the state apparatus
— is
the creation of the instrument through which the process of changes
will gradually proceed.
To carry out transformations, even if modest, through the current
structure would be a mistake. Maybe that was one of the mistakes (not
just the only one) made by the Soviet Union, which the Cuban
leadership duly observed at the time. My dialectical logic tells me
that the process (which is very distant from perestroika)
begins
by creating the adequate machinery for the intended changes, with the
objective of preparing the conditions for greater efficiency and
control. As a railroad man would say, first the rails, then the
train. Not all the drawers will be opened and the openings will not
be simultaneous. As I wrote more than a year ago, we’re looking at a
multistage rocket.

Another
important point in Raúl Castro’s speech is his insistence on
institutional life, which has been one of the failures in the
dynamics of Cuban society. This is a key point. Only
institutionality can prolong the process beyond the biological
presence of its pioneers.
If the Communist Party is the only heir of Fidel Castro’s leadership
and, as Raúl Castro said, if it must be "more democratic"
because it is the only party, its corollaries at governmental and
societal level are institutionality and participation.

In
my opinion, it is smart to add to the global solutions to our
problems an opening to local initiatives. This vision opens a
leading-role space for the nation’s social and economic bases and
strengthens the People’s Power in the communities. Moreover, by
saying that there will be occasions when direct consultations will be
made with "the appropriate citizens from any sector of society
and even the entire population, if it is an issue of great
transcendence," Raúl is defining the direct participation
of the citizens in the decision-making process, something that has
been done in some productive sectors, with good results.

Obviously,
the changes that will be consulted with all the citizens will be the
changes most delicate for the entire population, such as some
subsidies Raúl described as unsustainable. But these changes,
such as the dual currency, which obviously has a bearing on
production and work productivity, cannot be made by decree. The two
currencies must be gradually approximated, so as to revalue the Cuban
peso. Note that the chain of dual currency/ production/ productivity
creates a feedback that can be either positive or negative, creating
a vicious circle that must be broken. In some sectors, such as the
tobacco industry, the producers receive part of their payments in
convertible pesos (CUCs). According to reliable sources, something
similar is being applied (or will be applied) to the dairy industry.

As
to the excess of prohibitions and regulations, "within the next
several weeks, we shall begin to eliminate the simplest," Raúl
said. Among the likely changes would be the right of Cubans to stay
at all hotels and their free access to cellular phones.

According
to the president in his speech of Feb. 24, "the suppression of
other regulations, though to some it may seem simple, will take
longer because they require integral study and changes in specific
legislation. In addition, some of them are influenced by the measures
taken against our country by the successive U.S. administrations."
This seems to respond to the people’s requests for an end to the exit
permit, an indispensable requirement to travel abroad.

I
have left for the end the definition the president made of the
objectives of his efforts: to satisfy the material and spiritual
needs of the population.

I
resume my opinion by saying that we’re looking at an organic concept:
a precise definition of the objectives of the stage now beginning; a
centralized command at the apex; the distribution of tasks and
functions; an institutional mechanism; discreet and well-calculated
decentralizations that can give a leading role to the bases —
because many difficulties can be solved more quickly and economically
if the localities are stimulated — and a healthy confirmation that
people’s opinions will continue to be respected.

There
is no doubt that reforms will be made — with due priority, at their
due course, at the due pace, with the due protagonists and the due
consensus of the population. That’s because the agenda is drafted
inside the country, with the participation of leaders and people, not
dictated from abroad.

Manuel
Alberto Ramy is Havana bureau chief of Radio Progreso Alternativa and
editor of Progreso Semanal, the Spanish-language version of Progreso
Weekly.