Bolivia: Between politics and violence
Á
propos the Constituent Assembly and the recall referendum
By
Eduardo Dimas
On
Sunday, Dec. 9, Bolivia’s Constituent Assembly approved in Oruro, by
two thirds of the deputies in attendance (about 160), 410 of the 411
articles in the nation’s new Constitution, whose process of drafting
and ratification was systematically boycotted by the opposition, led
by the oligarchy. Only one, the article on land holding, did not earn
the necessary votes.
The new
Constitution contains many of the historic vindications of the
Bolivian people, one of the ignored and exploited in the region.
Among them is the autonomy of the indigenous peoples, approved
recently by the United Nations General Assembly, which restores the
rights denied by colonialism to the native peoples of the world.
Á
propos the Constituent Assembly and the recall referendum
By
Eduardo Dimas Read Spanish Version
On
Sunday, Dec. 9, Bolivia’s Constituent Assembly approved in Oruro, by
two thirds of the deputies in attendance (about 160), 410 of the 411
articles in the nation’s new Constitution, whose process of drafting
and ratification was systematically boycotted by the opposition, led
by the oligarchy. Only one, the article on land holding, did not earn
the necessary votes.
The new
Constitution contains many of the historic vindications of the
Bolivian people, one of the ignored and exploited in the region.
Among them is the autonomy of the indigenous peoples, approved
recently by the United Nations General Assembly, which restores the
rights denied by colonialism to the native peoples of the world.
It also
establishes legal precepts to maintain the State’s ownership of
natural resources; it imposes social security, which exists only in
certain sectors of the Bolivian economy; allows for free medical care
and education, and grants the level of autonomy required by the nine
departments and ethnic groups that compose the country.
It is
obvious that such constitutional principles are not to the liking of
the local oligarchy, the oligarchies of other countries, and the
transnational corporations. In fact, it is a bad example for the rest
of the people of Latin America who hope that the constitutions of
their respective nations vindicate their rights as human beings.
If
anything has characterized the Bolivian oligarchy ever since the
country’s independence, it has been its profound reactionary nature,
its racism and its conviction that it can do whatever it wishes in
Bolivia, with the approval of the United States government, of
course, particularly since World War II.
Since
its independence from Spain, Bolivia has had the highest number of
coups d’état in Latin American history. It is not surprising,
therefore, that, on several occasions, leaders of the opposition to
the government of Evo Morales have requested the intervention of the
Army. In all cases, that request has been denied by the high command
of the Bolivian Armed Forces, who have reiterated their obedience to
the Constitution’s principles.
Nevertheless,
the possibility of a coup cannot be ruled out. Many of the
high-ranking officers in the Army have family ties to the oligarchy,
and share interests with it. As in other countries of Latin America,
there is a military caste in Bolivia that has participated in the
country’s government, whether directly, in the ruling circles, or
defending the people in power.
To some
observers, the government and the opposition are at an impasse. The
oligarchy is unable to overthrow Morales without the help of the
Army, because of the president’s rate of popular support (62
percent), and the government is in no condition to neutralize the
opposition without the use of force. Besides, the latter option has
never been the policy of the president or his administration.
Therefore,
the Army can act as a counterweight that can tilt the balance to one
side or the other of Bolivia’s political spectrum. If we look at
historical precedent, it will most likely tilt on the side of the
oligarchy and its interests. Evo’s popular support is strong but
might not be enough to deter a military coup, particularly in view of
the division that exists in the Bolivian left.
And this
is a situation that is repeated everywhere in the planet. The
oligarchies, the Empire and its allies can reach an accord with
relative ease when their interests are in danger, despite the
competition and contradictions among them.
Not so
with the left, where ideological differences, sectarianism and (worse
yet) individual egocentrism become obstacles impossible to clear.
That’s one of the principal dangers faced by the process of changes
in Latin America at a time when the reaction — represented by the
government of the United States, the oligarchies and the rightist
international organizations such as Christian democracy — are trying
to prevent those changes from consolidating in Venezuela, Bolivia,
Ecuador, Nicaragua and Cuba.
Returning
to the topic of Bolivia, I believe that Evo Morales has just made an
intelligent and at the same time dangerous political move. Seeing the
impossibility of halting the actions of the oligarchy, and facing the
ever-increasing aggressiveness of the prefects (governors) of six of
Bolivia’s nine departments, he has asked the Senate to carry out a
recall referendum for himself and the nine prefects.
The
Senate has not yet given a green light to the referendum, which would
be held in the first half of 2008, but it is evident that it will
hard pressed not to approve it, since it would be assailed by the
nation’s public opinion. The call to a recall referendum further
reduces the range of movement of the oligarchy and its allies.
All that
remains for the opposition is violence, which it has utilized to keep
the Constituent Assembly from meeting in Sucre (it had to move to
Oruro) and to threaten the sectors of the population that support the
process of changes advocated by Evo Morales.
That
explains the new calls to a coup d’état and the trip to the
United States of four prefects (Santa Cruz, Pando, Tarija and
Cochabamba) right after President Morales asked them to join a
dialogue. In the U.S., the four prefects met with former President
Gonzalo Sánchez de Losada (who is sought by the Bolivian
courts) and followers of former dictator Hugo Bánzer. There is
no information that they met with White House officials, but…
They
also contacted José Miguel Insulza, secretary general of the
Organization of American States, and asked him to intervene in
Bolivia because “of the lack of democracy that exists in our
country.”
Insulza
said he would send an OAS delegation to Bolivia if the government
requested it. It seems evident that the OAS should tell the prefects
off, instead of playing the game of people who have at all times
violated constitutional and democratic principles. But we cannot ask
the elm to produce pears.
Approval
of the new Constitution by the people seems inevitable. If it is
approved, Bolivia will enter into a period of inevitable definitions.
If the Senate approves the recall referendum — in which the people
will decide whether or not President Morales and the prefects remain
in office — we can expect new and strong actions from the oligarchy
to impede both democratic processes.
These
actions might involve the secession of the Half Moon (the departments
of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Pando and Benin, probably joined by Cochabamba
and Chuquisaca). This would create an extremely dangerous situation,
because it would be up to the Army to prevent that option. Or they
might involve an armed conflict in the Half Moon departments that
would also have to be quashed by the armed forces.
The
arrogance of the leaders of the Half Moon is such that they have said
that, in the event of military intervention to prevent secession, the
Army would be defeated. In that sense, we should remember that the
oligarchy in those four departments has created paramilitary groups
trained by mercenaries from Colombia and other countries.
The
photograph of U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg with a well-known
Colombian paramilitary is not a coincidence but an expression of the
White House’ policy toward Bolivia, which has been denounced
repeatedly by Evo Morales and Vice President Álvaro García
Linera.
A period
of important definitions now begins in Bolivia, which can lead either
to the creation of a fairer, more equitable country, or to a new
period of exploitation and slavery for the Bolivian Indians. I
believe that everything will depend on what the majority of the
people do.
If the
people mobilize and support the new Constitution, the oligarchy and
its allies can do little to stop it — except to provoke a blood bath
whose consequences for all of Latin America would be unpredictable.
Apparently, the dice have been cast. Time will tell.
