The big change: Reorganizing the chaos
Once upon a time, and not too long ago, I heard someone who prided himself of being an economist, boasting that the oldest trade in the world was his: the economy. And he argued: before creation, before the big-bang, before everything, and out of nothing, what was the universe? The universe was chaos. And that chaos, who produced it? We did, the economists.
In Cuba’s case, chaos is expressed easily, quickly and superficially, in the persistent circulation of two currencies — that one time were three, because the pesos and the convertible pesos circulated on the Island, but there was also the green and powerful dollars. And once there was even four: in Varadero, through a special dispensation, the uncomfortable and unequal euro notes circulated freely.
The Cuban dreams of the currency’s unification, and the flea dreams of buying a dog. And in truth, the matter does not seem complicated: the bills even match in format: they mix perfectly in the wallet… if you are lucky enough to have both currencies. That is, you put them away together, with each other and the miracle of unification happens.
In addition, heroes and martyrs coincide with equal denominations, the only thing that differentiates them is that their portraits appear in the pesos, and in the convertible currency they are represented by a statue of those portraits. And of course, the ones are worth twenty-five times more than the others, or twenty-three, or twenty-four, depending on whom and with what you are paying.
In principle, a convertible peso works like a twenty-five peso bill. And a ten CUC bill is a two hundred and fifty peso bill. Quick and easy: this is how it works on the street, every day of our lives.
If that were the logic to follow in the monetary unification, there would be no need to decree it. Like the end of the Special Period, which everyone considers dead, even if that death has never been certified. We could do the same with the currency: without much noise or fuss, they could still issue one currency and discreetly withdraw the others from circulation, creating peace here, and glory in heaven. And the problem would be solved.
But the chicken in that arroz con pollo, and also the rice, is not exactly how the unification would be impacted. It being as simple as it is impossible, for those who wear out their shoes every day and who drink a beer from time to time without suffering because it costs 25 CUP or 1 CUC. No, those people do not care with what currency they pay with: what makes them suffer is that the beer is almost never Cuban, nor is it cold.
The real and profound dilemma of monetary reunification will be the impact on the big economy, the real one, the one up there, that of the companies for which a convertible peso is sometimes worth twenty-five, sometimes worth ten and sometimes even only a Cuban peso, as if the currency had already been unified. There is where the magic comes in so that two and two continue being four. Or at least three. Or with good luck, five. And then, you know, all of that will filter down.
At that moment the question will not be how much the pesos are worth, since we know that right now they are worthless and their value is estimated by hand, almost on a whim, against the real currency. The question then will be to determine the value of each Cuban’s work. What will be the value of one’s real salary, and if that real salary will do more than pay us lunch for half a month. I hope so.
