A conclave to rule them all
The dancing and betting pools are over, and the gambling begins. The general congregations concluded this Tuesday, and since Monday, all the cardinal electors have gathered in Santa Marta, where they will reside during the conclave, without any communication with the outside world and with a single mission: to elect a new Pope.
For hours, or days (let’s hope not to break the record for a conclave of twenty-seven months for the 1294 election of Celestine V, the last Pope to resign before Benedict XVI), the cardinals will vote four times a day (twice in the morning, twice in the afternoon, plus the straw vote this Wednesday afternoon). The world will learn of the result by looking, twice a day, at the chimney installed in the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel: if the smoke is black, they will continue voting; if it is white, “Habemus Papam.” They will not watch television, have access to cell phones, or the press, nor will they be able to know anything about what is happening outside, under penalty of excommunication. To prevent this, Rome and the Vatican have designed a robust communications blocking system.
And who can be Pope? In the most open vote of the last century, three blocs remain: one bloc, clearly conservative and with no chance but capable of blocking; another, the majority (also the most divided), favors maintaining, with nuances, Bergoglio’s legacy; and a third, the moderate bloc, which includes both the new cardinals without Roman experience and those who will prioritize security at every step over outright reform.
Among the latter is the candidate everyone estimates will receive the most votes in the preliminary poll: Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, to whom various sources attribute at least thirty votes. These votes could be added, depending on the results of other papal candidates, to the eight to ten votes thought to be received by the most extreme faction (with Hungarian Peter Ërdo, Dutchman Eljk, Canadian Leo, and Swedish Arborelius as the main representatives).
And among the Bergoglians? They represent the majority faction, and they have the most candidates. Indeed, in the first round of voting, at least five papal candidates could garner a considerable number of votes: the American Robert Prevost; the Italian Matteo Zuppi; the Frenchman Aveline; the Filipino Tagle; and the Brazilian Steiner.
What will be the keys to determining whether it will be a short conclave or, on the contrary, whether there will be blocking minorities that prevent the necessary 89 votes from being reached? The first “tour de force” will come after the first ballot, the so-called “feedback,” after which the cardinals will return to Santa Marta, dine at round tables, and discuss what happened. Depending on the votes cast, we could see the Parolin-Ërdo alliance confirmed or collapse. It will also be necessary to consider whether the reformers are capable of reaching an agreement and focusing their support on one or two candidates, which will be crucial to achieving a clearly Bergoglian majority.
The third ballot, at the end of Thursday morning, seems decisive in determining whether Prevost, Zuppi, Tagle, or Aveline are emerging as papal candidates from the Renewalist camp. Otherwise, the risk of a deadlock could lead to the emergence of outsider candidates, such as Artime, the Filipino David, or the Brazilian Steiner, who would rise significantly. Additionally, if Parolin falters and there is no strong Bergoglian candidate, other dark horses, such as the Italian Filoni or the Mexican Aguiar, could take their turn.
If there is no Pope on Saturday afternoon (around the twelfth ballot), the cardinals will take a day off. However, by then, the ghosts of division will have settled in the Sistine Chapel, and the outgoing Pope will not enjoy the same legitimacy as if, as desired, a short-to-medium conclave is held (throughout the day on Friday, but at most on Saturday morning).
