The outlook for 2009
By
Ignacio Ramonet Read Spanish Version
"Bullets
for the young, money for the banks." This expressive and angry
cry, shouted by demonstrators in Greece, may well be heard in
European cities throughout 2009, because the year that has just begun
will be characterized, due to the massive firings caused by the
crisis, by a strong social discontent. And this discontent will lead
to strikes, demonstrations and confrontations that the European
elections set for June will not quiet them.
Numerous
young people — students and nonstudents — are aware that their fate
is to end up in the sea of precariousness ("generation 700
euros") or in unemployment. They wish to start anew. Some feel
again attracted by libertarian movements. In the atmosphere of social
struggle that approaches, the ranks of anarchism could grow (1) just
like in the 1930s.
Although
in international politics there is no room for superstition, the
years ending in 9 are often convulsive. Suffice it to say that,
throughout 2009, we shall commemorate:
• 10
years of the Bolivarian revolution in Venezuela (in February);
• 20
years since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the
Soviet bloc (November);
• 30
years of the Islamic revolution in Iran (February);
• 40
years of the Libyan revolution of Colonel Qaddafi (September);
• 50
years of the Cuban revolution (January);
• 60
years of the Chinese revolution (October);
• 70
years of the defeat of the Spanish Republic in the Civil War (April),
• and
80 years of the Stock Market Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression.
No
doubt, the economic recession will also be the principal
characteristic of the year now beginning, because the effects of the
triple Crash in construction, banking and the stock exchanges will
batter the real economy head-on.
In
that context of social discontent, does the new President of the
United States, Barack Obama, represent a beacon of hope? Less than we
thought, because his economic team, which includes several
ultraliberal personalities who are party responsible for the current
crisis — such as Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers and Timothy Geithner
— will not be in a position to change things.
Besides,
it seems evident that Obama’s new administration will be to the right
of center, that is, farther to the right than the new Congress that
emerged from the Nov. 4 elections. (2) This augurs
stronger-than-anticipated tensions between the Executive and the
Legislative. The new Democratic members of Congress will echo the
impatience of the voters who were harshly affected by the crisis and
profoundly irritated by the giant fraud committed by swindler Bernard
Madoff, as well as the massive aid offered by the government to the
bankers. In sum, today’s enthusiasm for the new president could, as
the year progresses, change into disillusionment, frustration — and
anger.
His
foreign-policy team — consisting of Hillary Clinton, Robert Graves
and Gen. Jim Jones — is also much too conservative for someone who
promised he would stop imposing democracy at the point of a bayonet.
The
world’s "focus of disturbance" will continue to be the
Middle East, as shown by the recent tragic events in Gaza. In Iraq,
the forces of Britain and the other allies of the United States will
withdraw in spring. American combat troops will stop patrolling towns
and cities and will hunker down in their barracks. And their
withdrawal will accelerate. Violence with erupt again. The shoes
thrown by journalist Muntazer Al Zaidi at President Bush on Dec. 14
in Baghdad give an idea of the anger of part of the Iraqi people
toward U.S. occupation. Will the new and corrupt Iraqi Army manage to
impede the country’s dislocation?
Decisive
elections will take place in Israel, for the post of Prime Minister,
on Feb. 10, and in Iran, for the presidency, on June 12. The tension
between these two countries will reach incandescent levels. Will it
lead to an open conflict? Nobody should wish it, because the
geopolitical consequences would be unforeseeable. Not to mention the
economic consequences, because the prices of crude oil could rise to
US$150, thus worsening the current crisis.
As
to Afghanistan, a country that Barack Obama wants to turn into the
military priority of his mandate, if Washington intensifies its
intervention it will have to multiply its illegal attacks against
Pakistan, a demographic giant and nuclear power. That will provoke a
possible destabilization of Asif Zardari, president of that bankrupt
state, which is being threatened by its powerful neighbor, India,
after the attacks in Bombay on Nov. 26. Washington would then enter
into a new interventionist mode that could favor a swift return to
the Pentagon of the "hawks," who favor a harsh and
domineering imperialism. In Kabul, the Americans will try to impose a
"presentable dictator." That will mean a return to
political realism (i.e., cynicism) and the abandonment of the ethical
project defended by Obama during his electoral campaign.
Another
giant who might spring surprises is China, because the crisis (which
will translate into a general increase in protectionism worldwide and
the consequent reduction in exports) will hit it harder. Thousands of
factories will close and there will be massive firings of workers,
most of whom lack social security and health care. Protests will
grow. Will the authorities in Beijing manage to maintain social
peace? At what price?
In
Latin America, the big question is whether Barack Obama will accept
the olive branch tendered by Cuban President Raúl Castro and if he
will finally negotiate an end to the commercial embargo against the
island. We shall find out on April 17, when, on the occasion of the
Summit of the Americas in Port-of-Spain (Trinidad and Tobago), the
U.S. president will define his new policy toward the hemisphere.
Meanwhile,
the weather crisis will continue to worsen. Everything indicates that
2009 will be the year of all perils, because one era is dying —
neoliberalism — and a new paradigm begins to stumble along. It
should be the moment for all opportunities. A time to begin to build,
finally, a better world.
Notes:
(1)
Jan. 15 is the 200th anniversary of the birth in Besançon, France,
of Joseph Proudhon, father of anarchism.
(2)
Moisés Naim, El País, Madrid, Nov. 30, 2008.
Ignacio
Ramonet is the editor of Le Monde Diplomatique.
