Triangle of troglodytes

The Trump administration has coined a new phrase to call the three nations in Latin America where the United States would like to promote regime change: “The trio of tyrannies.” They are Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua.

The invention of this new term is an ominous sign. Back in the George W. Bush administration, top U.S. government officials, led by John Bolton, who is back at it as Trump’s National Security adviser, concocted the Axis of Evil. The axis of evil was Iraq, Iran and North Korea.

We know how that turned out. The invasion of Iraq was, under international law, an illegal war of aggression. Cheerleaders for the war promised the Americans would win in a cakewalk and would be received with candies and flowers. In the end, that was not at all the result.

After the predictable initial rout of the Iraqi army, things quickly turned nasty. Bush declared “mission accomplished” with swagger and bravado. The backers of the war didn’t have long to cheer. Soon, an Iraqi resistance arose, using mainly deadly improvised explosive devices. The ultimate cost to the United States, in bodies, blood, and dollars, was astronomical.

The war did not result in the promised spread of democracy throughout the Middle East. Even in Iraq, the outcome was at best mixed. Saddam Hussein was deposed and killed. But today Iraq is an ally of powerful U.S. nemeses.

Beware when a government in political trouble at home brings out the swords and begins to rattle them, as Trump is doing now.  The outcome is seldom what is promised. Way back in the time when several large countries in South America were ruled by gorillas in uniform, the Argentinians thought a little invasion of the Malvinas (known also as the Falklands) would rally a discontented people behind the Generals.

The ensuing conflict turned out to be a humiliating disaster for Argentina, with substantial loss of life. The British, who had long-ruled the contested archipelago, crushed Argentinian forces. The military Junta’s ploy backfired, and the regime collapsed. Democracy was restored and some of the military leaders were prosecuted for their crimes.

There is an object lesson for the U.S. here. Besieged at home as a lifetime of misdeeds and two years of high crimes and misdemeanors begin to catch up with him, Trump lashes out all around, at perceived enemies foreign and domestic. But the mouth of a loose cannon firing while spinning around 360 degrees eventually faces the gunner. It would not be the first time this administration suffered from a self-inflicted wound.

Currently, the Trump administration, which renounced the Obama administration’s Iran nuclear deal, is sending warships to the Persian Gulf area as a threat to Iran. The Trump administration also has asked the U.S. Defense Department for “military options” for Venezuela as it has become increasingly clear that the internal opposition to the government is faltering. Meanwhile, the administration is tightening the noose around Cuba by restricting travel and trade. They are also talking up a storm against Nicaragua. Are we back to gunboat diplomacy?

The numerous scandals swirling around the Trump administration are not going away despite Republican efforts to spin the damning report of the special counsel as an exoneration. In this context, a foreign adventure or two might seem like a welcome distraction. But Iran and Venezuela are not Panama or Grenada. The U.S. military can overwhelm either country’s defenses, but an invasion of Iran would be very costly. Saddam Hussein learned that lesson when he attacked Iran twenty years ago. In Venezuela, it could be relatively easy to get in, but much more difficult to get out.

As Americans think about the upcoming presidential election, do they want another two endless wars?

They may not have a choice for U.S. foreign policy today is being run by a “triangle of troglodytes.” President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and especially National Security Adviser John Bolton are a virtual war cabinet à la the Japanese government during World War II.

In the end, odds are the U.S. won’t take military action. Bolton has been itching for an attack on Iran and Cuba for a long time. But Trump is in charge, and he is notorious for bellicose bluster signifying nothing.

Still, the rhetoric is a reminder of how much of a throwback to the era of American interventionism in Latin America this administration really is. The Trump administration is retro across the board and in the worst way: bared-knuckled capitalism, bared-knuckled politics, and bared-knuckled foreign policy.

With a “see no evil” GOP-controlled Senate, Trump will not be run out of office through impeachment and conviction, as he deserves. The Republican sheep are not going to turn the tables on the dog and hunt. When their dog barks these sheep tremble. That’s why it is essential that come 2020 those of us not caught up in the Trump poisoned Kool Aid cult do the job Congress should be doing today.