Continuity or continuism?

HAVANA – A new president’s mandate that began April 19 reinforced the feeling that Cuba is going through an exceptional historical moment. The generation that led the revolutionary triumph of 1959, and that has governed for almost 60 years, is giving way to new ones. The official message repeated ad nauseam is one of continuity. Some of us are convinced that it will take much more than that to reverse the Island’s current condition. The path, then, is one of change and transformation in the course of the revolutionary process.

The complexity of the panorama before the new Cuban government should not be underestimated. Reform has been proposed since at least 2007, and in many respects the comeback requires an even greater effort now. The backing of the historical generation makes for a very good family photo, but does it solve the enormous responsibility in practice?

This is not going to be a list of the problems that need to be addressed. There’s really nothing new to say at this point. Raúl Castro’s decision to reform the model (update, according to official use) was accurate and pragmatic. It was necessary then and it is still much more today. The current model, with a few patches added since the 1990s, does not guarantee the economic viability of the nation. Implicitly, and reluctantly for many, it was said that one could not put all the blame on the ancient U.S. blockade.

Unfortunately, it was not possible to advance further with some favorable winds at home and abroad; currently that tail wind has vanished, and the effort will have to be much harder. Regrettably, the most recent signs indicate that the idea that changing is too dangerous has made a comeback based on the argument that mistakes have been made and our bureaucracy is not prepared for challenges of such magnitude. A great Latin American economist once said that the success of a country lies not in getting everything right, but in identifying what’s most important and doing it fairly well.

Even after criticizing ad nauseam the U.S. policy of harassment and punishment, some sectors almost convinced us that the alternative that Obama raised was even worse (something like the kiss of death). Let’s see how they explain and imagine a change of policy towards Cuba while denying their imperialist ways.

That our economy is not doing well is not new news. Cuba’s economic performance has been disappointing since at least 1986. Despite leaving behind the dark moments of the nineties, an economic model has not materialized that would create greater prosperity. Short-termism was permanently installed in economic policy and the urgent displaces the important too often. What is truly worrisome is that once again the plight of an external ally has an unreasonable impact on the fortunes of the land. Will we ever learn that lesson?

Providing the nation with a project whereby Cuba can prosper while leaving behind underdevelopment at the beginning of the 21st century was, and continues to be, the main challenge. It is not an easy task and much less obvious if you look back. Greater doses of humility are required to be rigorous in the examination of our weaknesses. Sectarianism, dogmatism, intolerance and clumsiness have become all too common in our context.

That goal is not reached by way of a few documents discussed and approved by the highest levels of government. It is much more complex than that. It requires an unusual and imperfect national consensus that emerges from a deep and informed debate. It is not only the administrative or legal facts that have force to the extent that they express the true feelings of citizens. It has more to do with understanding our mistakes and the principles that should lead us to a better destiny.

This project must meet some basic conditions to be successful. First of all, it must start from a much better understanding of the socioeconomic and geopolitical reality of contemporary Cuba. The point of departure can not be the country that we can imagine it to be, but the one that really exists.

Ours is today a much more pluralistic, heterogeneous and unequal society than 30 years ago. Embracing this diversity is a historical necessity and an un-postponable path. A predefined conception of a country can not be imposed: the complexity of a society can not be reduced from stylized desk designs. The success of a project of this type is based on its ability to create the conditions to make the most of its own resources and talents.

We do not have much time. The most important acquired advantage of the last 60 years has already begun to erode: a well-educated population by the standards of an underdeveloped country in Latin America. The quality of basic and professional education has begun to decline after many years of economic crisis. Emigration has only established itself as one of the most common life projects. Population aging will very soon reduce the absolute number of people of working age while their average age will increase. The scant opportunities for progress in the formal sector push an increasing number of Cubans towards informality. We will have fewer people to work with — less educated and older. The ability to implement public policies is being seriously compromised.

Secondly, it is essential to understand the world we currently live in much better. Especially relevant is the study of the new dynamics of development, and the bases that will make it possible in the coming decades. Information and communication technologies are transforming the world at breakneck speed. New industrial applications and commercial services require connection speeds that are not even mentioned. Improving connectivity and guaranteeing universal access is a basic need for contemporary development, as was elementary or secondary education a few decades ago. A small country depends more on the world economy, but foreign actors are not going to solve or supplant the good management of domestic resources. Foreign investment is not a substitute for the entrepreneurship of Cubans.

If the project is centered on people, then material well-being has to take its rightful place. Citizens also aspire to have the opportunity to participate actively in decisions that have to do with their lives, and what makes them possible.

Cuba coexists with a great contradiction. Its economic model prevents it from taking full advantage of the successes obtained in key areas for the prospective development of a country, such as education, public safety and social protection networks. But it also has the historic opportunity to build a better country where everyone fits. The Revolution was not only about guaranteeing the country’s independence, but also about achieving economic progress and social justice. In one and in the other, too many debts begin to accumulate.

Continuity has to do with pursuing the just aspirations of a better country where everyone can enjoy an opportunity to develop their talents. It should not be confused with continuism, which, on the contrary, is linked to insisting on schemes and vices overcome by the experience of 60 years.

But the genie already warned us … you can not expect different results doing the same things over and over.

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Ricardo Torres is an economist and professor at the University of Havana.