A Specter haunts the GOP
By
Bill Press
Once
Norm Coleman ran out the clock, we knew Al Franken would become the
59th Democrat in the U.S. Senate. But who knew number 60 would end up
being the senior Republican
senator
from Pennsylvania?
Arlen
Specter’s stunning decision to switch from Republican to Democrat has
turned the entire political equation in Washington upside down.
Overnight, the solid wall of filibuster built by Senate Republicans
has crumbled and, with it, the last obstacle to President Obama’s
legislative agenda.
Specter’s
decision was not about political philosophy. It was all about his own
political survival. He didn’t choose to join the Democratic Party
because he believed in what it stood for. He chose to leave the
Republican Party simply because he took a poll and discovered he
could no longer win a Republican primary. The man is nothing if not
opportunistic.
As
Specter himself boasts, however, switching parties doesn’t make him
an automatic vote for Democrats. Specter merely goes from being one
of the more moderate Senate Republicans to the most conservative
Senate Democrat. He has already cast his very first vote as a new
Democrat against
Obama’s
budget.
Specter’s
reputation as an independent, in fact, belies his voting record. More
often than not, when push came to shove, Specter voted with his
fellow Republicans. He’s pro-death penalty. He supported the war in
Iraq. He opposed the Brady Bill, the assault weapons ban and trigger
locks on handguns. He complained about President Bush’s warrantless
wiretapping, yet voted to make it legal. He’s pro-choice, yet he
voted to confirm both John Roberts and Samuel Alito.
Majority
Leader Harry Reid, in his memoirs, summed up Specter’s so-called
"liberal" voting record as: He’s "always with us when
we don’t need him." There’s no reason to think that will change.
Democrats will end up no happier with Specter than Republicans were.
At the same time, Specter’s political sex change is a bonanza for
Democrats and a disaster for Republicans.
Democrats
gain, not because Specter will vote with them on every issue, but
because at least he will support debate on every issue. When
Republicans controlled the Senate, Democrats used the filibuster very
sparingly, and only to block certain extreme right-wing Bush judicial
nominees. Ever since Democrats won Senate control, Republicans have
abused the filibuster by turning it into a 60-vote gateway to block a
vote on every issue. That gateway will be gone once Franken is
confirmed. Specter may end up voting against the Democratic
leadership on any given bill, but at least he’ll make possible debate
and a vote on the bill.
Republicans
lose not simply because they’ve lost their last bulwark against the
Obama agenda, but because, with his departure, they’ve been further
marginalized as a major political party. In the Reagan era,
Republicans bragged to themselves as the "big tent" party.
No longer. Liberal Republicans disappeared a long time ago, with the
defeat of Connecticut’s Lowell Weicker.
Now,
as Specter, Lincoln Chafee, Chuck Hagel, Olympia Snowe and others
have discovered, there’s no room for moderates anymore. Among today’s
Republicans, you’re either a Rush Limbaugh clone or you’re out the
door.
What’s
especially bad news for Republicans is that party leaders don’t seem
to recognize the danger, as evidenced by their reaction to Specter’s
defection. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell dismissed the news
as a local Pennsylvania story. Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe cited
Specter’s decision as proof that the Republican Party was on its way
back. RNC Chair Michael Steele angrily accused Specter of flipping
the bird at his fellow Republicans. And Limbaugh sniffed: "Good
riddance."
They
just don’t get it. Specter’s not the problem. Specter’s just the most
visible sign of a much larger problem. Across the country, millions
of people are deserting the Republican Party because it no longer
speaks to their concerns.
In
California, for example, Republican voter registration has sunk to a
historic low of 31.1 percent. Ominously, Republicans have a majority
of registered voters in not one of the state’s 53 congressional
districts. In Pennsylvania, Specter discovered that up to 200,000
Republicans switched parties in recent months. In the last 10 years,
Democrats gained 860,552 new voters; Republicans, only 96,895.
The
lesson is clear: Republicans will either broaden their base and leave
room for the Arlen Specters of this world — or perish as a party.
Bill
Press is host of a nationally syndicated radio show and author of a
new book, "Train
Wreck: The End of the Conservative Revolution (and Not a Moment Too
Soon)."
You can hear "The Bill Press Show" at his Web site:
billpressshow.com. His email address is: bill@billpress.com.
(c)
2009 Tribune Media Services, Inc.
