Trump and the chaos strategy

This year’s presidential election takes place in a context unprecedented in the history of the U.S. The American people will participate in an election marked by the devastating effects of the pandemic, the most severe economic crisis since the Great Depression, the implications of systemic racism, and a president’s obsession with reelection. Trump has gone to extremes while breaking basic norms that prevail regarding what is “politically correct,” and it would seem that he has no visible limits in this endeavor.

From those objective circumstances, Trump and his campaign team concluded some time ago that they had no chance of winning the election in November. Therefore, they decided that the only realistic option to prevail would be the deployment of a strategy that ignored and attacked the fundamentals of the electoral system. The plan is centered on four fundamental pillars: discouraging and hindering the participation of voters who favor the Democratic candidate; sabotaging the functioning of the U.S. Postal Service; preventing the necessary logistical conditions from being created at the voting sites; and putting direct pressure on election authorities at the local level.

It starts with the premise that that country is not prepared to face the demands and challenges that COVID-19 has imposed on the presidential elections. The recent primary elections were a clear example of the seriousness of this situation. Among the many problems the following stood out: delays in the arrival of ballots sent by mail; excessive delays in the counting of votes; massive closures of voting centers; unnecessary requirements to vote; long lines; the collapse of electoral websites; and voters who did not know where to vote. The outcome was counties in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where results were not known for days — sometimes up to 10 days after the election.

This is just a small-scale preview of what could happen on November 3. All of this is possible due to the serious structural, organizational, and functional problems of an American electoral system that is on the verge of collapse. With barely two months until the first Tuesday in November, the fact is that there is no real possibility of reversing this situation. Trump and his team interpret these vulnerabilities as unique opportunities to achieve their purposes. Therefore, it is not enough that objectively the country favors Joe Biden, because Republicans have the ability to influence three aspects that are strategic: the decision to vote or not, the exercise of the vote itself, and the counting of those votes.

When it comes to discouraging voters to participate, their [Republicans’] actions are focused on creating an environment where there is lack of trust and credibility in the electoral process. Its main exponent is Trump, who during an event in Wisconsin emphasized: “The only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged.” Viewing fraud as a real and inevitable possibility constitutes the central axis of this disinformation campaign that not only promotes confusion and chaos, but also has the ultimate goal of psychologically preparing the American people so that it seems natural for Trump to proclaim himself the winner in the face of alleged electoral irregularities.

According to a survey conducted between August 9 and 12 by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News, 45 percent of registered voters do not trust that the results of the election will be accurate, and 51 percent believe that the vote by mail will not be counted adequately. The atmosphere of mistrust and the perception of fraud is already present in the U.S. electorate, a trend that should deepen as November 3 approaches.

Maneuvers to hinder participation at the polls are closely linked to preventing the United States Postal Service from guaranteeing the delivery of the ballots, and their subsequent distribution to Elections Departments where they are counted. Currently this federal institution is in a critical situation since it lacks the necessary infrastructure to adequately handle, and in the required timeline, an estimated flow of tens of millions of ballots. For that reason, Democrats are pushing to pass a $25 billion emergency fund so that the U.S.P.S. can function properly.

Just three months ago Trump appointed Louis DeJoy, who is an unconditional ally who has contributed more than $2 million to his political campaigns, as head of the Postal Service. His objective, as head of that institution, seems to be to impede its operation and thereby occasioning the following: that voters who vote by mail not receive their ballots or in the best of cases have them arrive late; that votes by mail are not collected on time and not sent to the proper elections’ departments within the allotted time period, therefore annulling them. 

This could happen with hundreds of thousands of ballots from potential Democratic voters, and in the current circumstances, Republicans have a real possibility of influencing this process. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, there are 33 states that require that ballots be received by electoral authorities the day before the election. Also, the Republican National Committee and conservative groups have spent millions of dollars filing litigations in at least 17 states to limit the expansion of the vote by mail considered by Trump as his main challenge.

Regarding logistics at voting precincts, actions taken will aim to prevent these facilities from working quickly, which would have a significant impact on their capacity to process and count the ballots. At this time, high-speed machines are mainly required for scanning and hiring a large number of personnel because, according to the Center for Public Integrity, more than half of those who regularly work in these places are persons over 60 and more vulnerable to COVID-19. If no solutions are found before November, it is highly likely that it will take days for some states to release the results, which works in Trump’s favor as part of his promotion of chaos.

On intimidation and pressure tactics against local electoral authorities, the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee are working intensively in 15 states to recruit around 50,000 volunteers who would be trained to serve as “election observers.” In practice, these people will directly influence voting precincts and their immediate surroundings to ensure that these locations have “stricter control of voters,” who are fundamentally Black, Latino and young people. In certain decisive states that are usually won by a narrow margin, these types of intimidation tactics can be decisive. Or have we forgotten the 2000 election where Florida was won by 537, and it took more than a month for the final result?

In any case, Trump’s strategy is to make voting more difficult, the scrutiny more complicated, and delaying the official results for days. In practical terms we are witnessing a hijacking of the presidential elections that is underway. We are in the presence of a candidate who has already proclaimed himself the winner without one vote having been cast. Never has the U.S. faced a situation of this nature. Therefore, there is no clarity about the possible implications for the United States and the world in what some have called a possible “electoral Chernobyl.” Perhaps for these reasons Bernie Sanders stated in his recent Democratic National Convention speech: “This election is the most important in the modern history of this country.”