Republican glee has short life

By Max J. Castro
majcastro@gmail.com

The GOP may be feeling pretty good right now but lookout for the train coming down the rails. That is why Republicans are once again trying to rebuild their support in the Latino electorate, according to a lengthy analysis in The Washington Post. The GOP is trying to figure out why it got hammered by Hispanic voters in the 2006 and 2008 elections. That is a no-brainer: immigration. After an attempt to turn immigration violators into felons passed the House of Representatives in 2006 on the basis of massive Republican support, the die was pretty much cast. The torrent of anti-immigrant rhetoric during the Republican primary in 2008 solidified the antipathy.

The Republicans have plenty of reason to worry because of sheer demographics. The math is inexorable. In 2000, George W. Bush got 54 percent of the white vote and lost the popular vote by a hair. In 2008, John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote and lost the electoral vote by 7 percent. Winning the white vote is no longer enough to secure a victory at the presidential level.

“If the current voting percentages among white, black, Asian and Hispanic stay the same the Republican nominee will lose by 14 points in 2020. We have to be more competitive,” said Ed Gillespie, former head of the Republican National Committee. Indeed. In a few years even Texas may be in play.

The fundamental problems Republicans have with Hispanics are far beyond the public relations campaigns deployed by the GOP and involve policy. Beyond immigration, Republicans have championed English Only laws, denial of immigrant access to the social safety net and even education, and myriad other measures at the state and local level that are read as extremely hostile within the Latino community.

Such a cumulative record cannot be erased in a short time. Almost every state legislature and many towns and cities have gotten into the act of legislating immigration. This body of anti-Latino inspired policy has made it very clear to Latinos at the local level where Republicans stand. Unwittingly, the Republicans have helped educate Latinos politically.

But there is another political reason why Republicans have a vanishing chance of getting back into the good graces of the rapidly growing Latino community. Their base supports blatant anti-Latino postures with a fervor that is almost impossible for Republican leaders to mollify. John McCain is a prime example of a Republican who tried to strike a relative Latino-friendly posture. He was rewarded with virulent opposition within the Republican base. He finally gave up. “I got it,” he said and dropped his advocacy for moderate immigration reform.

Beyond every else, the fundamental fact is that the central interests of the Latino community — liberal immigration, good paying union jobs, excellent public schools, universal health care, and a strong social safety net — clash with the ideological tenets of the Republican Party. No amount of gimmicks can overcome that. The process won’t be linear: Latino “stars” like Marco Rubio will emerge from time to time, and in some places Republican politicians will be able to attract Latino voters. But the Republicans have almost nothing to offer Latinos, and no amount of dodging and demagoguery will spare the Republicans the effects of the Latino political-demographic bomb.