Paul Ryan and the conservatives’ view of Cuba
By Jesús Arboleya Cervera
HAVANA – The selection of Paul Ryan as the Republican candidate to the Vice Presidency of the United States gives continuity to the strategy followed by that party in the last election, once the defeat of Bush Sr. in 1992 showed Republicans the danger of moderating their positions despite the complaints from the ultraconservative hard core.
Bush Junior’s victories in 2000 and 2004 were possible thanks to the vigorous support of that mass of voters who, though it doesn’t exceed 25 percent of the [possible] electorate, showed it was sufficient to win elections marked by apathy and abstentionism.
While, despite the selection of Sarah Palin, things did not go right for John McCain in the previous presidential election, that was due to the enthusiasm generated by Barack Obama in a sector of the electorate that generally did not go to the polls.
The Republican analysis is that this enthusiasm has diminished as a result of the economic situation and the President’s inability to satisfy the expectations that determined his election. So, the electoral equation returns to its previous variables, making the ultraconservative vote – a minority – decisive.
What some consider to be Paul Ryan’s weaknesses when seeking the undecided vote – say, his proposals to limit social aid, his anti-immigrant stance, or his ideological fundamentalism on topics such as abortion and others – are precisely his strengths when mobilizing this segment of the electorate.
The calculation might fail, but it would be naive to suppose that the experienced Republican machine did not take those details into consideration. Conservatives do not bet on expanding democracy but on controlling it by accentuating its limitations.
On their favor is the fact that neither party criticizes the system but reduces the debate to administrative problems related to the role of the State in the economy. The popular movement that, by class instinct, has brought up the privileges of 1 percent of the population will not be represented in the elections, not even by the country’s first black president, who generated so many hopes in these sectors.
Nor are there any substantial differences regarding U.S. foreign policy. On the contrary, Obama has strengthened his position, demonstrating that he can be as interventionist and implacable as the Republicans, so the topic will not be a priority in the presidential debates. In truth, it will not be his adversaries who’ll criticize him for not shutting down the Guantánamo concentration camp, for invading Libya and moving to do the same in Syria and Iran.
In this context, we might say that the problem of U.S.-Cuba relations surfaces only in South Florida, through the back door and with relative electoral importance. It is clear that both conservatives and liberals would like to see Cuba’s socialist regime disappear and this purpose is part of their discourse, like an act of faith. But there are shadings in the way to achieve this and in the price that should be paid for it.
The president stands fast on his policy of easing travel and remittances, while he continues to press the economic blockade and conditions other advances to eventual changes in Cuba’s political system. By so doing, he tries to protect himself from criticism from either side.
For his part, Romney has gone the traditional Republican route: he promised anything so long as he kept the Cuban-American far right happy, and courted its principal figures, mainly Senator Marco Rubio, whose name was bandied as a likely candidate for the Vice Presidency. Rubio will introduce Romney at the Republican convention.
What’s remarkable is that Paul Ryan has been one of the most consistent opponents in Congress of the blockade. Both the Cuban-American Republican politicians and Romney have tried to evade the problem, saying that they’ve “educated” Ryan sufficiently about Cuba, so his position has changed.
It is possible that the Vice Presidential candidate will be required to acknowledge his presumed illiteracy and will assume a more convenient position with a view to the election campaign. But that doesn’t change the reality that, contrary to what the Cuban-American ultraright has attempted to show, Ryan’s position is not an anomaly but coincides with the vision of an important sector of U.S. conservatives who advocate a change in the policy toward Cuba.
All the initiatives supported by Ryan to alter this policy had broad bipartisan support in the House. Most of them were initiatives from conservative Republican sectors interested in expanding commerce with Cuba. Add to this the ideological conviction that favors free trade and rejects government intervention in private businesses and you’ll understand why, as recently as 2009, Ryan said that he didn’t understand a policy that favors free trade with China yet forbids it in the case of Cuba.
If these initiatives did not prosper in the first decade of this century, it was due to the reticence of George W. Bush’s administration and the pressures he exerted on the agricultural-food sector, which depends on government subsidies. For its part, the Cuban-American lobby handed out million-dollar contributions to “educate” some misguided politicians, which temporarily halted the initial momentum of the process.
The moral of this story is that, with respect to U.S. policy toward Cuba, the Cuban-American extreme right marches against the conservative vision that predominates in the United States.
The extent to which that group can force the support of some conservative politicians in exchange for a guaranteed Cuban-American vote in a key state like Florida will depend on the evolution of the Cuban-American voting bloc, a phenomenon that is becoming evident. Its expression at the polls seems to be a matter of time.
Perhaps the next election will bring some surprises and even the selection of Ryan will not be as negative in Miami as some presume.
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