Iraq on the brink
The final chapters in George W. Bush’s Iraq misadventure are being written in blood as I write this.
The Islamist threat that Bush’s war was supposed to destroy now threatens to dominate a wide swath of the Middle East, including large portions of Iraq and Syria. The large-scale carnage that began with the initial U.S. “shock and awe” assault continues unabated, albeit with different weapons and new players. The main difference, however, is that since few if any Americans are dying, the bloodletting goes largely unreported.
The tragic irony of the situation is that the seemingly unstoppable Islamists surge, which already has claimed Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul, and now has its sights set on Baghdad, is a creature of the American invasion. Saddam’s Iraq was a brutal dictatorship ruled by terror and violence. But it was also a secular country where women did not have to constantly live in abject fear and the strong undercurrents of sectarianism were kept in check by a combination of Saddam’s political adroitness and utter ruthlessness.
Most serious Iraq experts warned the Bush administration that a military intervention in Iraq would change this admittedly dreadful status quo for the worse. Every element of the current tragedy was predictable and predicted. Bloody sectarian warfare between Sunnis and Shiites. The creation of an ideal space for fundamentalists the world over to come together and demonstrate their military prowess and power. The expansion of the conflict to other areas of the Middle East. The rise of Iran as the major international actor in Iraq.
The Bushistas didn’t listen. They held the people with real knowledge of the realities of Iraq and the Middle East in utter contempt. The experts were mostly realists. The United States was now so powerful it could create reality to suit its desires. The Bush crowd was sure that the seeds of democracy they would plant in Iraq would spread throughout the region like kudzu. Israel would be a Jewish island living in peace and security amid a sea of new Arab democracies.
It sure didn’t turn out that way. It may be true that the dreams that you dream do sometimes come true. But Iraq was no Walt Disney movie and the troops on the ground soon realized they weren’t in Kansas anymore.
The fantasy of the neoconservatives and the hawks pushing and supporting Bush soon turned into a nightmare. The casualties and the costs exceeded the administration’s expectations many times over. Successes were elusive or illusory. The American people grew sick of the endless war. After Obama pulled out most U.S. troops things deteriorated further. Recently, the situation has gone from serious to critical.
The return of the media spotlight signals the fact that Iraq is falling apart fast. The seemingly unstoppable military sweep of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), an Islamist movement that even Al Qaida considers too extreme and brutal, threatens to transform the two countries (and possibly even Lebanon) into the exact opposite of what the invasion was supposed to bring about.
Bush tried to sell his war in part by talking up a non-existent Al Qaida threat in Iraq. Ironically, it was the war itself that bred a real Islamist terrorist threat. Now that threat has morphed into perhaps one of the most the most powerful and nasty extremist groups of all. Last weekend, for example, ISIS released a video featuring atrocities perpetrated by the group against Iraqi soldiers. The rosy future envisioned by proponents of the war gets bleaker by the day.
The final irony is that the survival of the state the Americans helped cobble together after the invasion now probably depends on the U.S./Israeli nemesis of Iran. This weekend, Lindsey Graham, by current Republican standards a moderate Senator from South Carolina, said on “Meet the Press” that the United States needs Iranian help to hold Baghdad.
It has come to that. Incidentally, aren’t these the same guys we say are going to blow up the world with their as yet non-existent nuclear weapons? Pathetic doesn’t cover it.
Imperial arrogance, wishful thinking, delusional fears, and sheer ignorance produced the carnage of the Iraq war. From the witch’s brew that resulted has now come an all-too-real monster. All the choices for dealing with it are bad. Naturally, Republicans are all over Obama for inaction, in effect for not being able to clean up the awful mess their guy created. But the truth is that the GOP has no clue of what to do any more than George W. Bush knew what troubles storming Iraq would bring about.
