Dialogue or pressure? The fragile balance of the EU-Cuba agreement

By Lisset Argüelles / La Joven Cuba

The news of the recent meeting between the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, and Cuba’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, came at a sensitive time for the Island regarding human rights. The meeting underlines the willingness of the European Union to maintain dialogue with the Cuban government, a policy promoted until now by Joseph Borrell, but which could be about to change.

Borrell has been a key figure in the implementation of the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (PDCA), promoting a diplomatic and cooperative approach to the demands of certain European sectors that demand more severe sanctions and greater pressure on Cuba. Now, about to conclude his mandate, Rodríguez took the opportunity to express his gratitude for Borrell’s contribution to strengthening relations between the EU and Cuba.

However, the year 2024 has been especially tense for relations between Cuba and the EU due to growing criticism about the effectiveness of the agreement to generate progress in human rights. In January, the European Parliament took an unprecedented step by banning members of the Cuban National Assembly from entering its premises. This decision was in response to the Cuban government’s refusal to receive an ad hoc delegation from the Parliament that was intended to assess the human rights situation on the island.

The year 2024 has been particularly tense for relations between Cuba and the EU, due to growing criticism over the effectiveness of the agreement in generating progress on human rights.

Shortly after, Cuba responded with strong accusations, alleging that some members of the European Parliament were linked to terrorist organizations, which only increased tensions.

Just a month later, in February 2024, the European Parliament issued a resolution that further deepened the already deteriorating relationship between the two parties. This time, the Parliament condemned the worsening human rights situation in Cuba, pointing to the alarming increase in political prisoners, which by the end of January had reached 1,066 people. In addition, the practices of “forced labour” in medical brigades and other labor sectors under the control of the Cuban state were condemned, calling them a modern form of slavery.

The resolution insisted that although the ADPC was conceived as a tool to promote fundamental freedoms in Cuba, it has failed to fulfil that objective. The European Parliament therefore urged the European Union to consider suspending the agreement if significant improvements are not made. Additionally, the application of the EU’s global sanctions regime, known as the ‘Magnitsky Act of the Union’, was proposed to sanction those responsible for human rights violations, including President Miguel Díaz-Canel as a central figure in the chain of command of the Cuban security forces.

Although the resolution was approved with 285 votes in favour, 172 against and 46 abstentions, the sanctions were not implemented immediately, as they require the final approval of the Council of the European Union to enter into force.

The vote on the resolution and the diversity of opinions within the European Parliament highlighted the complexity of the debate, with deeply divergent positions on how to address the situation in Cuba.

The European People’s Party (EPP) Group, represented by MEPs Leopoldo López Gil and Paulo Rangel, called for stricter sanctions against the Cuban government, insisting that the EU must take a firmer stance in response to the deterioration of human rights on the island.

From the Renew group, Spanish MEPs Javier Nart and Dita Charanzová also stressed the need to suspend the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (PDCA) if tangible improvements in fundamental freedoms are not observed in Cuba, with Renew betting on a combination of pressure and dialogue as the most effective strategy to achieve changes in the country.

In turn, MEPs from the European Conservative and Reformist Group (ECR), such as Hermann Tertsch, took an even harsher stance, strongly supporting the application of the ‘EU Magnitsky Law’ and calling for direct sanctions against senior Cuban officials responsible for human rights violations.

These more critical positions contrast with more moderate sectors within Parliament, including some socialist MEPs such as Javi López (PSOE), who maintain that dialogue must continue to be the main instrument to promote improvements in Cuba, although without ruling out greater diplomatic pressure if progress is not perceived.

As the months have passed and the international scenario is complex, Cuba has lost prominence in the EU’s human rights agenda. In the recent general debate of the UN Human Rights Council, the EU expressed concerns about countries such as Venezuela, Russia, Syria and Myanmar, without mentioning Cuba among the main focuses of attention. The change reflects how geopolitical priorities and larger-scale conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, have displaced Cuba on the list of human rights emergencies.

The change reflects how geopolitical priorities and larger-scale conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, have displaced Cuba on the list of urgent matters.

However, this context has been exploited by the Cuban opposition, which in recent days has intensified its pressure on the European Union to suspend the Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement (ADPC). Organizations such as the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba and the Cuban Women’s Network reiterated the ineffectiveness of the agreement to improve human rights on the island, highlighting the growing number of political prisoners as a fundamental reason for requesting the activation of the ADPC suspension clause.

With the recent election of Kaja Kallas as the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, questions are raised about the future of the Agreement with Cuba. Kallas, former Prime Minister of Estonia, has been a firm voice against authoritarian regimes, especially with regard to Russia, given her experience and historical background with that country. His approach to human rights, reflected in his consistent condemnation of repression in Eastern Europe, could signal a more critical stance towards Cuba than that adopted by his predecessor, Josep Borrell.

It could also mean a greater focus on defending fundamental rights, in line with the most recent resolutions of the European Parliament calling for greater pressure on the Cuban government. Although Borrell opted to continue dialogue despite criticism, Kallas could lean towards a tougher stance, supporting demands for sanctions if clear improvements in the human rights situation on the island are not seen.

As the new legislature progresses, the balance between dialogue and pressure is likely to be re-evaluated. In the coming months, it will become clear whether the European Union maintains its current approach or adopts a more critical stance towards Cuba. It is foreseeable that it will take a firmer line to demand progress on human rights, without interrupting economic and cooperation relations. Even if Donald Trump returns to the White House, the EU could avoid a complete breakup.

Although the EU’s current attention is focused on the crisis in Venezuela, a severe response to possible social unrest in Cuba could lead to the approval of sanctions, something that the government will try to avoid at all costs due to its serious economic and diplomatic consequences.