Cuba’s the loser in Florida’s senate race
Al’s Loupe
Cuba’s the loser in Florida’s senate race
By Alvaro F. Fernandez
alvaro@progresoweekly.com
How do you explain the fact that Cubans in Miami are supporting and African-American, liberal democrat over one of their own? Well, if he wins, they’d have another senator on their side from the majority party…
Of course I’m referring to the senate race for the seat vacated by Mel Martinez last year after less than one term in office. In this race, 38-year-old Marco Rubio, born of Cuban parents in Miami and former speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, is leading against much better financed candidates — one a sitting governor who many thought would coast to victory in November; the other a member of Congress who was on the fast track to a leadership role with the majority party.
Talk about strange. The son of Cubans is not being backed (at least not very generously) by most of the influential, conservative, republican-leaning plutocrats of the South Florida Cuban community. Their money seems to be going to the democrat, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek. And it’s not because Rubio has a tendency to veer left. No, the fact is that since undertaking this quixotic race, a conservative Marco Rubio has turned harder right, making him the darling of many Tea Partiers and hard right republicans around the state and country.
Most amazing, though, is that at this point in time (and there’s still about six months before the primary election), Rubio is kicking tail against Governor Charlie Crist — impossible to even consider less than a year ago. The latest poll shows Rubio ahead by 28 points. At one point in 2009, Crist led this race by almost 40 percentage points. Mind you, if Rubio succeeds in knocking off who was the republican favorite, and Meek garners the Democratic Party nod, current polls show Rubio narrowly beating the democrat.
Which suddenly throws off my claim that money greatly determines who wins and loses elections in this country. Just take a look at the campaign cash scorecard for these three: Rubio has $2 million on hand; Meek has $3.37 million and Governor Crist a whopping $7.56 million. Then again, as I mentioned, it’s still early and, especially Crist, will bombard the air waves in order to frame the message (and his opponent) to his benefit. That’s what money can buy you.
Interpreting the facts
Suppose then that Marco Rubio beats Crist and Meek becomes the democratic nominee. As I said, polls are telling us the race would be close, but Rubio wins. Looking at it from a strictly Cuba-centric position, this might then be a best case scenario.
First, Rubio becomes one of less than 50 minority party members in the Senate. His influence will be diluted or little to none. Second, the U.S. Cuba Democracy PAC is on record favoring the black congressman from South Florida. Headed by Mauricio Claver-Carone, this group of influential Cuban American business types has been lobbying and spending money in Congress to assure that Cuba travel restrictions are not lifted. Also raising large amounts of money for Meek are Florida’s Fanjul brothers — the anti-environment, Cuban sugar barons who depend on millions in sugar subsidies yearly from the federal government. Smartly and historically, though, the Fanjuls always hedge their bets.
It’s why they’re also supporting Rubio. They’ve been practicing this two-step for years. One goes republican and the other democrat, which assures them a winner almost every time, and guarantees their continuous sweet deals from the Feds. The Fanjuls, by the way, want nothing to do with Governor Crist. He’s had the audacity of confronting them by favoring the clean-up of the polluted Everglades water (caused by some of their sugar field run-offs). Obviously, this would be good for Floridians, but it is vehemently opposed by the brothers — it would cost them money. (Who knows, it might mean that instead of being multi-billionaires they might just fall into the simple billionaire category…)
So let’s look at this for right now. From a simple standpoint, I would favor a Crist victory. He would probably do the least amount of damage long term. Again remember, I am writing from a Cuba-centric point of view.
The again, if Crist wins, looking less likely as time quickly goes by, it would leave Marco Rubio with nothing to do. I’ve heard that if Marco loses he will then turn his sights on the job of mayor of Miami-Dade County, which is up for grabs in 2012. The current mayor, Carlos Alvarez, will be termed out by then. Now that scares the hell out of me. A Mayor Rubio would be a death-wish for South Florida.
As for Meek, with the money pouring in from anti-Cuban, Cuban-American sources, chances are he would be a powerful and dangerous voice against those who’d like to see a change in our relationship with our neighbor down south. If he loses, sources close to Meek say he would devote his time to lobbying in Washington, D.C.
Any way you look at it, this Florida senate race does not present a good scenario for Cuba this year. I guess we better focus on assuring that congressional District 25 (for the House of Representatives) is won by somebody not named Rivera.
