Caution: Wet paint

By Elsa Claro

Collective blunders, such as not producing enough nickel or sugar when both products could be sold for a lot on the world market, or individual mistakes, like the ones that cost the jobs of two ministers and a political leader, can no longer happen from now on, particularly in 2011, the year when a group of measures – some quite radical or at least quite different – will continue or begin.

Does this imply a change of system? If we listen to different theoretical streams, yes. Or, if we listen to some outdated predictions, we are going to imitate the Chinese and Vietnamese models. Both even, in a rare native blend.

According to President Raúl Castro, we shall neither copy models nor change course, but will perfect the plans. What’s real and unquestionable is that the survival or collapse of the Cuban socio-political project depends a lot on the economy and good management.

Mariano Murillo Jorge, a man who has gained sudden prominence recently, told Parliament bluntly during its latest session in 2010 that “if we do not straighten the efficiency of the investment process and do not straighten the efficiency of the primary sectors the economy, we will not achieve the goals set so that, within 4-5 years, the country can achieve the balances and advances that are needed.”

Being a specific man, the economy minister explained that these principles are crucial. If agriculture in general (and in particular the sugar industry), or the food industry and the efficiency of the investment process “are bad, the economy will not work right.”

“In terms of the plan and budget, we have insisted that the repeated story of noncompliance and overdrafts must end,” said Cuban President Raúl Castro at the close of the National Assembly session, insisting that “the plan and budget are sacred, I repeat, from now the plan and budget are sacred and are made to be fulfilled, not to mollify us with justifications of any kind and even with inaccuracies and lies, intentional or not, whenever the goals set are not met.”

Raúl added a strong value judgment that may possibly set a standard by enabling “structural and conceptual changes in the Cuban economic model.”

Precisely, not randomly, the draft discussed by the deputies (which is the subject of debate today by the public) raises diverse and sometimes bold projections.

Encourage foreign investment, enhance the special areas of development (ZED) in Cienfuegos and Mariel (to create jobs or develop high-tech projects, among other purposes), reward or penalize through salary, according to the results of each investment process, and even design mechanisms for the importation of supplies to meet the needs of the non-state sector or shut down unprofitable businesses.

None of the proposals made can be channeled appropriately if, as Murillo said and Raúl reaffirmed, we do not act in consonance. Among other warnings, the minister of the economy warned that merely by failing to comply with the requirements for the food industry with regard to levels of production and efficiency, the country would be forced to import 1.6 billion dollars in food, money that could be spent on other needs or programs.

The new era requires a profound change in the way we think and act. That change is probably the most difficult, despite the evidence that in the year just ended we achieved an increase in labor productivity of 4.2 percent, with an average wage growth of 4.4 per cent. That’s still insufficient, but, as a trend, it’s encouraging.

Similarly, it must be recognized as an early positive fact, and an indication that we’re traveling down better roads, that we achieved an internal financial balance that is visible in the control of the liquidity in the hands of the population and the partial balance of our commitments to foreign suppliers.

The growth achieved in 2010 is not high, but indicates a favorable movement. Still, GDP growth is uneven. Not all agencies made the contribution they should have. “If productive organizations, particularly those associated with the primary sector of the economy, where wealth is produced, fail to meet their quota,” Murillo said, of course we won’t reach any goal, modest though it may be.

To bring reality closer to a future and hypothetical success, there must be greater foresight and a more accurate perspective. Only thus can we exploit the circumstances of any particular moment, because “we could do a lot of currency management, a lot of debt renegotiation, but if we don’t meet our revenue needs, the chances of continuing to manage the economy will be further limited,” vice president Murillo said.

In his speeches to Parliament, Murillo did not fail to criticize below-target and improvised activities, especially those regarding investments made with little analysis of their timeliness or made at the last minute, without the proper advance research.

Voluntarism is harmful in all its expressions, but worse when applied to economic decisions. The same applies to unfounded euphoria .

“We need to change the mentality of the cadres and all our countrymen as we face the scenario that begins to emerge. Simply put, it is a question of transforming erroneous and unsustainable concepts about socialism that have been deeply rooted in broad sectors of the population for years, because of the excessively paternalistic, idealistic and egalitarian focus the Revolution established for the sake of social justice,” said Raúl.

He also spoke about a legal system that will enhance institutionality and give a legal basis to the new criteria emplaced or to come. He spoke of steps that require the elimination of irrational prohibitions or that ignore significant investments “that do not meet the established requirements, including the determination of financing, technical and project preparation, the definition of the building forces capable of undertaking projects within the time limits and the evaluation of the feasibility studies.”

This proves that there are not only openings and changes, but also firm insights, which already started, along with greater exigencies and controls.

Generalizing, or as a rule of thumb, these formulations suggest a thorough study of the strengths and weaknesses of the previous system, but while looking to a future that requires us to work hard and to define, without any concessions, what we now have or can obtain with due objectivity. Those are elements that – to be blunt – are currently in short supply.

Elsa Claro is a Cuban journalist. She lives in Havana.